How well are COVID-19 vaccines protecting us from severe illness in the face of Omicron and the fifth wave?

In responding to your comments and in the course of my work as head of a health business, I am well aware that real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness remains top of mind in the ever-changing SARS-CoV-2 variant landscape.

I’ve prepared a two-part article for you, giving key insights into the current context. Today I’m sharing the first post, which deals with real-world vaccine effectiveness. It will soon be followed by a second post covering our analysis of the severity of the latest wave of infections; detail around our medical scheme members who have been admitted to ICU in the latest wave; the rise in admissions in children under nine; and – of growing importance – the impact of post-COVID conditions, or Long COVID, on our member base.

South Africa is in a fifth wave of COVID-19 infection. We’ve seen a rise in infection rates after about two months’ decline. The recent wave is driven by Omicron sub-lineage variants BA.4 and BA.5, which have fast become dominant in South Africa. As always, through our collaboration with independent scientists, we are monitoring the situation closely.?

I’d like to share what we have learned about vaccine effectiveness against serious illness post the fourth wave (driven by original Omicron strain B.1.1.529) and to share the sustained effectiveness our early data analysis shows against serious COVID-19 illness caused by BA.4 and BA.5.

1. Our recently published research shows excellent two-dose Pfizer and two-dose J&J vaccine effectiveness against Omicron B.1.1.529:?

In early May, one of the most credible international clinical journals, the New England Journal of Medicine, published correspondence (co-authored by Chief Health Analytics Actuary at Discovery Health Shirley Collie and her team, alongside an esteemed group of South Africa’s leading scientists), showing that whether one has two doses of the Johnson & Johnson or two doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, one enjoys equally good protection against serious illness caused by the original Omicron B.1.1.529 strain.

In the case of two-doses of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, effectiveness against hospitalization for COVID-19 was:

• 74% at 14 to 27 days post the second dose
• 72% at 1 to 2 months post the second dose

And, effectiveness against ICU admission or high care was:

• 82% at 1 to 2 months post the second dose

In the case of two-doses of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, effectiveness against hospitalization for COVID-19 was:

• 88% at 14 to 27 days post the second dose
• 70% at 1 to 2 months post the second dose
• 71% at 3 to 4 months post the second dose
• 67%?at 5 months or longer post the second dose

And, effectiveness against ICU admission or high care was:

• 70% at 1 to 2 months post the second dose
• 73% at 3 to 4 months post the second dose
• 71% at 5 months or longer post the second dose

Discovery Health’s own more recent data analysis (not part of the above study) shows that over the course of our fourth wave of infection, Pfizer three-dose vaccination enhanced protection against severe illness to between 88% and 90% (14 days post the third dose).

2. Discovery Health’s real-world early data shows vaccine effectiveness is sustained in the fifth wave period

?New research by our Health Intelligence Unit (led by Shirley Collie) reinforces the protective effects of vaccination against severe COVID-19 outcomes caused by infection with Omicron sub-lineage variants BA.4 and BA.5. This research has not yet been submitted for peer review but shows promising initial results.

Our early analysis looks at Gauteng-based administered medical scheme member data from 1 April 2022 to mid-May, which is our proxy BA4/BA5 period. Two-dose Pfizer vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization for COVID-19 is sustained, at very good levels, as follows:

• 87% at 1 to 2 months post the second dose
• 84% at 3 to 4 months post the second dose
• 63% at 5 to 6 months post the second dose

?And, for those who have had a third, booster dose, vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation increases as follows:

• 85% at 3 months post the third dose
• 88% at 3 to 4 months post the third dose

Our early data reinforce the importance of keeping up to date with our COVID-19 vaccination schedule and the added protection gained from a booster dose. If you haven’t had yours yet, I encourage you to make the time.

Our Healthcare Analytics team at Discovery Health will in the near future share more detailed insights into vaccine effectiveness over fifth wave period. It will be posted, as usual, on our Discovery Health Insights Hub at?https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/health-insights.

I'll be posting a second article on our fifth wave data analysis and insights soon.