How to Watch Election Night Like a Pro

We are six days and a wake-up from Election Day. By now, everyone should know that we are unlikely to call the election on Tuesday night. It will (hopefully) be quicker than 2020 since many states are better prepared to handle mail-in votes, but unless there's a blowout one way or another, we’re probably looking at several days to declare a winner. That’s thanks to a well-documented Republican strategy to sow distrust in the system , all to claim Democrats are cheating.?

Spoiler: Democrats are not cheating.

So, come November 5, how can we parse who is winning, who is behind by how much, and what the numbers actually mean? Where do we go for accurate analysis? Here’s how we plan to watch the returns at NDTC.?

SEVEN STATES?

Yes, some national trends matter. If rural Republicans turn out in record numbers in every state, that could spell good news for the GOP. But if it’s rural women? That could benefit Democrats.? In the end, we don’t need to watch every state. Seven matter more than most: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – with a chaser of Texas, if you’re an optimist. That’s it.?

If the Democrats win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (the Blue Wall), Harris will win 270 votes. Game over, and congratulations, Madame President.?

If Trump wins Pennsylvania, buckle up. It will be a very long week for everyone.

PATIENCE

First, just know that anyone who thinks they know what will happen before the counting starts is lying. As of Friday, October 25, over 30 million early ballots have already been cast. But as we saw mid-pandemic in 2020, where vote by mail surged even as Trump disparaged it, and a 2022 mid-term where a supposed “red wave” turned into a solid Democratic map, there’s no telling how these votes will break. At best, it’s educated guessing. Case in point – Pennsylvania alone will hold up the works since the Commonwealth cannot count mail-in ballots until Election Day.?

As of early October , “more than 1.45 million voters have applied for a mail-in ballot ahead of the November 5 election, according to data from the Department of State. Of those applicants, Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one.” That's a whole lot of votes to count and plenty of time for troublemakers to sow distrust, confusion, and plain old disinformation. Don’t give in to it. The truth is that we simply don’t know what it means until the votes are counted.?

That voting may take several days or even a week.

TRUSTED SOURCES

Reject the bandwagon of doom-scrolling and doubt. There will be lots of talking heads calling races—some are far more reliable than others. Here are a few whom we trust for accurate analysis on Election Night.?

• Tom Bonier – senior advisor and former CEO at TargetSmart, where they've developed a dashboard to report vote totals as they arrive.?
• Dave Wasserman - the dean of “calling” races as decided. Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical.
• Jon Ralston and his Early Voting Blog at the Nevada Independent are must-reads for Nevada results.?
• Patrick Schuh from America Votes routinely provides solid analysis.?
• And, of course, the one and only Steve Kornacki . Khakis and a giant election board. What else do you need?
• Really into a deep dive? Here's a list of 100+ election reporting accounts on Twitter from Adam Carlson .

UNTIL THEN, DO SOMETHING?

Like I said, it won’t just be Election Night. Buckle up for “Election Week.” Which is exhausting to even think about after an election season for the books. But here we are, and it’s not overstating the case or being alarmist to say that democracy as we know it is on the ballot.

Certainly, action beats ruminating. And in the last few days, it’s all about getting out the vote. Can you phone bank? Knock on doors? If asking strangers to vote for your candidate is nauseating, try texting. At the very least, talk to your friends and family. Help turn out votes from your social circles. Every vote counts in elections this close.?

I also plan to remind myself of my “why.” Who I care about, why this is important, and what I can do. I know. Yes, I can hear your eyes rolling. But seriously, know your why, find your joy, and make time for the things that make you laugh out loud. And go after them during the wait. You’re going to need it, and it’ll make the waiting far more enjoyable.