How the war is crippling aviation across the globe

More than 180 Iranian missiles streamed down on Israel on October 1. The surrounding countries were forced to shut their airspace and at least 80 flights were forced to redirect.

If a full-fledged war between Israel and Iran begins, it will change the landscape of aviation. Or perhaps, it already has. Here’s how commercial airlines are adjusting to the increasingly volatile situation in the Middle East.

Positioned at the strategic crossroads of the major powers, approximately 10% of international traffic passes through the Middle East region. Surprisingly, that's more than the 8% of international traffic that crosses North America.

Much of it goes via the super-hub airports in the UAE and Qatar. That's really attributed to this massive growth in airlines like Emirates and Qatar Airways, which developed the Middle East as a stopover point for the global aerospace traffic.

But this thoroughfare link between the west and the east is fragile, to say the least. Even before the Iranian attacks, airlines were detouring around Libya, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen.

Russia's war on Ukraine made the link even more narrow by creating a vast no-fly zone in Eurasia. The rest of the world had to divide their flights into alternative corridors, which are Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Azerbaijan.?

Industry experts divide the rest of the available airspace into four main corridors, across Iraq, Iran, Egypt in the South, and Azerbaijan in the north. However, due to the recent conflicts, we cannot use routes across Iran and Iraq anymore. Flights across the region are heavily impacted. Airliners are rerouting or even canceling their flights in the region.

The killing of senior members from the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah in late July put commercial aviation on high alert in the Middle East, prompting airlines to adjust operations in the region once more.

A dozen airlines temporarily rerouted or canceled some of their flights in the region. This means less access to destinations, longer flights, and more expensive tickets for all.

For example, a 17-hour long flight from Australia to London had to be rerouted over Afghanistan, adding an extra three hours to the journey, so they could avoid the turbulence over the Middle East. The total Afghanistan overflights have almost tripped within a year. But we all know that Afghanistan is not the most predictable country in the world. There are a lot of concerns with the lack of air traffic service capacities across Afghanistan.

Many airlines are already operating at the margin of profitability on long-haul flights. The geopolitical tension is a very critical challenge to the viability of these long-distance flights.

It is also important that some of the biggest aircraft buyers are located in this region. Turkey, UAE, and Saudi Arabia purchased hundreds of aircraft to become a global flight hub. If the conflict drags on beyond 2024, it could significantly impact the outlook of the commercial aviation business.

?

...the war is dividing the world, not only on Earth but also in the air.