How to Validate Project Assumptions

Validating the assumptions included in the project justification is key to minimizing project risk. Sometimes, straightforward research is enough. For assumptions that aren’t easily validated, here are other approaches to validate or, at least, reduce the probability of an assumption being wrong.??

• Consult experts. Reach outside your organization. Seek the opinions of LinkedIn contacts, peers in project management associations, or prominent individuals in industry bodies. Ideally, get multiple perspectives so you can analyze the results to identify project situations that could render an assumption invalid. If you get differing opinions, use the Delphi approach. Send the differing opinions to your expert panel and ask them to comment on the rationale for dissenting views. Use the results of that exercise to figure out if the assumptions present a significant risk to the project.
• Perform an audit. Find situations where you can directly test the validity of the assumption. Then, test the assumption via a manual process, querying a customer, or performing any other action that might provide a “sample result” you can use for validation purposes. For example, altering the directions you provide to clients to solve a product issue, publishing an advertisement with a different angle to a small set of clients, or changing the parameters of a system function to see if the subsequent system or user action is expected. Note: this approach has risks. You don’t want to frustrate a client or have an advertisement yield an adverse reaction to your product. To minimize risk of adverse outcomes, select the clients and situations carefully, and if feasible, alert a trusted client that you are trying something new.
• Build a prototype. Designing a prototype process or I/T system is an effective way of validating assumptions. When it works, it triggers enthusiasm for the project and its potential business results. Depending on the situation, the prototype can be a small, standalone project or a set of features in an agile project environment. With this approach, be prepared for the project to take an unanticipated direction -- your stakeholders might create additional requirements. No worries, the result is often more effective than the original plan, so keep an open mind.
• Conduct a survey. Query individuals who aren’t familiar with the project's justification and current assumptions. Why? Because stakeholders who know the assumptions can answer the survey questions to confirm or invalidate them based on their views about the project. Also, don’t make the mistake of taking a casual approach to designing survey questions. Use people with experience designing survey questions: the wording of survey questions is vital to ensure you get valid results.

Have you come up with other approaches for validating assumptions? Or have tips for managing the nagging feeling that you haven’t even identified all the assumptions? If so, share with us in the comments section.

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