OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033: Future Trends in Agriculture and Fisheries Markets.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 offers an in-depth analysis of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets on national, regional, and global levels. This 20th edition, collaboratively produced by the OECD and FAO along with member countries and international commodity organizations, serves as a structured reference for policy planning amidst global challenges such as the COVID-19 pandemic, rising geopolitical tensions, and the escalating impact of climate change. Reflecting on the evolution of global agriculture over the past two decades, the report provides projections up to 2033.

Emerging Economies Driving Market Developments

Over the past 20 years, the consumption of agricultural commodities has expanded significantly, primarily driven by population and income growth in low- and middle-income economies. These countries have rapidly increased their production through technological advancements, innovation, and increased use of natural resources. As a result, shifts in agricultural production and consumption locations have led to changes in international agricultural trade patterns.

The Role of China, India, and Southeast Asia

The People's Republic of China has been a major driver of global food and agricultural consumption; however, its influence is expected to wane over the next decade. Conversely, India and Southeast Asian countries are projected to expand their global consumption share, driven by growing urban populations and increasing affluence. While China contributed 28% to global consumption growth in the previous decade, its share is expected to fall to 11% due to stabilizing nutrition patterns, slower income growth, and a declining population. India and Southeast Asia are projected to account for 31% of global consumption growth by 2033.

Projected Growth in Agricultural and Fisheries Products

The total use of agricultural and fisheries products is projected to grow by 1.0% annually over the next decade, with significant growth concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Global food consumption is expected to increase by 1.2% annually, driven by population and income growth. In most regions, the growth in feed use of crops is projected to outpace direct food use growth, reflecting a shift towards higher shares of animal-derived foods in diets and the resulting expansion and intensification of livestock production.

Calorie Intake Trends

Middle-income countries are expected to see a 7% increase in average daily per capita calorie intake by 2033, driven by greater consumption of staples, livestock products, and fats. In contrast, low-income countries will experience a 4% increase, insufficient to meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of zero hunger by 2030. Income constraints in these countries continue to hinder the transition to more nutrient- and protein-rich diets, leading to a reliance on staples. High-income countries are expected to see dietary shifts due to growing concerns over health and sustainability, evidenced by a slight decline in fats and sweeteners intake and stabilizing protein consumption.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Environmental Impact

The carbon intensity of agricultural production is projected to decline as production growth is expected to be driven by productivity improvements rather than expansion of cultivated land. However, direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are still expected to increase by 5%. Growth in crop production will primarily come from productivity increases on existing land. Similarly, productivity improvements will drive livestock and fish production growth, although herd expansions will also contribute. Despite these improvements, significant productivity gaps are expected to persist in low- and middle-income countries, posing challenges to farm incomes, food security, and increasing dependence on food imports.

Reducing Food Loss and Waste

Halving food loss and waste by 2030 could reduce global agricultural GHG emissions by 4% and the number of undernourished people by 153 million. The report includes a scenario that simulates the impact of halving food losses along supply chains and reducing food waste at retail and consumer levels by 2030. This could lead to a 4% reduction in global agricultural GHG emissions, evenly distributed across countries regardless of income levels, and a decrease in the number of undernourished people by 26%.

The Importance of International Trade

Well-functioning international agricultural commodity markets are crucial for global food security, as 20% of calories are traded internationally, benefiting rural livelihoods through market participation and global agrifood value chains. The COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions have underscored the vulnerability of international agricultural trade. Despite a projected stabilization in the traded share of production, the volume of commodities traded globally is expected to grow, with shipments increasing between net exporting and net importing regions over the next decade. Latin America, the Caribbean, North America, Europe, and Central Asia are projected to reinforce their positions as major net exporters, creating additional opportunities for farmers. Net imports by Asia and Africa will continue to expand, highlighting the need for resilient trading systems to ensure global access to safe and nutritious food and support income generation across agricultural industries.

Price Trends for Agricultural Commodities

Real international reference prices for main agricultural commodities are projected to slightly decline over the next ten years, assuming stable weather conditions, macroeconomic and policy assumptions, and continued technological improvements. However, local retail food prices may not reflect these lower international prices due to domestic inflation, currency devaluation, and high domestic logistics and processing costs. These factors may sustain or widen the gap between international commodity and retail food prices, posing challenges to livelihoods and threatening food security for vulnerable consumers.

Conclusion

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 provides critical insights into the future of global agriculture and fisheries markets. As emerging economies continue to drive market developments and influence global consumption patterns, the challenges of climate change, food security, and sustainable development will require coordinated efforts and innovative solutions. Well-functioning international trade and strategic policy planning will be essential to navigate these challenges and ensure a resilient, sustainable, and inclusive agricultural future.