How Trump’s Economic Plans Are Set to Transform eCommerce

In our previous discussions, we have explored different eCommerce trends from both strategic and practical levels.

This time, however, our editors decided to focus on a more interesting angle. As Donald Trump reclaimed his victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, what does it mean for eCommerce and logistics in the next four years?

Overall, the electoral agenda by Trump is nothing less than, as described, ambitious. A primary highlight that is seemingly evident in both of his presidencies is the emphasis on the “America First” doctrine, a policy framework that prioritizes domestic businesses and industries. This approach is significantly responsible for his administration's tariffs and trade protections, creating a significant impact on the eCommerce landscape.

For eCommerce operators and those involved in cross-border trade, the implications of Trump’s policies are well worth considering. Nevertheless, this article serves as an interesting, detailed read about the considerations that may be relevant to your business.

America Comes First, as Trump Says

As Donald Trump reclaimed the presidency following the 2024 election, the implications for both eCommerce and logistics are expected to be profound.

One of the key points is the “America First” doctrine that Trump has emphasized throughout his political career. In 2018, Trump implemented high tariffs on imports, especially targeting China, with rates soaring to as high as 60% to 100%. This move contributed heavily to the trade tensions at the time.

Trump’s electoral notion, “America First, A Return to Common Sense,” implies that local, domestic-based eCommerce businesses are bound to benefit. We may anticipate significant growth in domestic eCommerce sales and near-shore fulfillment services as a result of these latest policies by Trump.

However, to eCommerce businesses, particularly cross-border ones, these protectionist policies are bound to drive import costs up and reduce margins significantly.

A Question: Can eCommerce Stay Afloat?

From news sources to online forums such as Reddit, sentiments of eCommerce players upon Donald Trump’s election victory appear negative.

However, such views are not to be blamed. All in all, in his recent primary campaigns, Trump has already announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports, including a 10% baseline on imported goods with specific increases aimed at specific countries.

Chinese imports are the most to suffer, as they could face tariffs for up to 60%, and Mexican and Canadian goods (which extend to the border problem as well) may see increases in tariffs up to 25%.

Finally, Trump's intention to revoke China's “Most Favored Nation” (MFN) status adds another layer of complexity to the import landscape, as platforms like Shein and Temu no longer have the advantage of tax exemptions for their low-value shipments.

eCommerce Challenges

In a competitive market characterized by narrow profit margins, eCommerce companies may find even less survival space for them to gain profit and may look for other countries that have less tariff-heavy focus.

For eCommerce companies based outside the U.S., the challenge of absorbing these increased costs leads to diminished profit margins and a challenging operating environment. eCommerce platforms that traditionally rely on lower-cost imports from China - such as Temu, Shein, Tiktok Shop, and AliExpress - are particularly vulnerable given their significant expansion in the U.S. market over the recent years.

Across online forums like Reddit, they reflect a mixed bag of sentiments. While some express concerns that eCommerce businesses will “take a big hit,” others also shift their focus more on dropshipping, questioning the viability of such a business model in 2025.

The research by eMarketer predicts that as Trump’s tariff plans continue, it will cause retail prices to skyrocket, easily reaching double-digit percentage spikes for each of the retail categories examined. The categories cover every day retail items, including clothes, household items, and children’s toys.

Supply Chain Challenges

Higher tariffs are expected to disrupt the existing supply chains. In the near term, anticipation of increased tariffs prompts sellers to rush shipments before the tariff rises, which causes spikes in shipping and storage costs.

Across all countries, China will be dealt the heaviest blow. Supply chain diversification is suggested as a viable strategy to mitigate the impacts of Trump’s tariffs and to keep costs low. This can involve shifting the production to countries with lower tariffs or more lenient trade agreements, such as Vietnam, India, or countries in Central America.

However, tariffs on Mexico became the center of attention as eCommerce companies will need to carefully monitor these evolving policies to achieve cost-effectiveness.

Furthermore, tariff changes are expected to affect the cost and speed of shipments as demands for different shipment methods (sea, land, and air) change.

The transition to international shipping is often not straightforward and involves greater levels of sophistication given the new supplier relationships and logistics network, which takes time and resources. Potential port congestion, revised transportation policies, and operations result in delays and risks in international shipping.

An Uncertain Future Ahead

The implementation of tariffs is bi-directional, and the aggressive nature of Trump’s tariffs may trigger potential retaliation measures from the affected countries, potentially sparking new trade conflicts.

A review of the 2018 China-U.S. Trade War serves as a cautionary tale. While eCommerce may not be the most affected sector compared to manufacturing or agriculture, it is still vulnerable to the fallout from escalating trade tensions.

Most importantly, it is the uncertainty that we do not want to see. But as businesses, expecting and dealing with uncertainties are one of the tasks to thrive.

Building Resilience for Your eCommerce Business

In response to the changing eCommerce landscape from increased tariffs, businesses should adopt strategic measures to navigate these challenges effectively.

1. A recurring theme in discussions around tariffs is the diversification of supply chains. Depending on your sourcing strategy, you may consider local sourcing to avoid tariffs (while appealing to domestic businesses) or explore opportunities in regions with more favorable trade terms and lower tariffs (hence shifting away from China).
2. Another strategy is a reduced reliance on U.S. market sales. With the U.S. highly vocal about imposing tariffs, eCommerce businesses may consider expanding to other international markets where tariffs are less of an issue or where demand for such products is growing.
3. Finally, flexibility and adaptability are key in adapting to these changes. This may be achieved by implementing a just-in-time inventory system and investing in technology to help reduce holding costs and allow for agile responses to market demands. However, it also prompts real-time decision-making, which are qualities that are highly sought after in the dynamic eCommerce environment.

Your Partner for Cross-Border eCommerce

As you navigate these challenges, partnering with a reliable logistics partner can significantly improve your eCommerce operations. At TrackingMore, we are able to offer a comprehensive order tracking solution designed to support your global trade activities.

As a pioneering order tracking solution, we are well-connected with over 1,300 global carriers and 80 air cargo providers with real-time tracking capabilities. Notable online retailers such as AliExpress, Shein, and DJI also entrust us. Our advanced tracking API is essential for cross-border trade.

Moreover, our solution enables fast implementation up to 1-7 days and 24/7 support, which are especially useful for globally operating eCommerce businesses like yours.

If you are interested in enhancing your order tracking capabilities, do not hesitate to reach out to us for a demo. We are here to help you streamline your eCommerce operations and thrive in a challenging landscape.

The Winner is the One Who Adapts

As Donald Trump eyes a return to the White House, his presidency is destined to bring notable changes to the eCommerce landscape.

However, the challenging times are also telling of who will succeed and who will not.

As an eCommerce owner, you should be clear about the impacts of Trump’s tariffs: Higher product costs, more complexity in sourcing and supply chains, and an overall more difficult market. However, it is also a period that eCommerce owners can reflect, particularly on how they can continue to drive sales despite the shrinking margins.

All in all, “the winner is the one who adapts.” The article provides a few viable options, such as diversification of supply chains, reduced reliance on U.S. market sales, and providing flexibility of eCommerce operations. TrackingMore offers real-time tracking across global carriers so you can stay ahead of your eCommerce game.

You should also stay informed of further political and economic changes so as to pivot strategies ahead of time.