How Trump v2.0 may hit Asian exports

Briefly in our free daily #5in5withANZ global markets podcast today at 6am AEST:

Markets are bracing for fresh US inflation data on Wednesday night, Australia wages and jobs figures on Tuesday and Thursday, and the RBNZ’s decision on Wednesday. In China, more signs of weak retail demand are expected on Thursday.

Today's 5 news things in 5 minutes for Monday, August 12:

1. Global financial markets settled over the weekend after a wild 10 days. The focus this week will be on Australian wages and prices data, along with an on-hold rates decision expected by ANZ Research on Wednesday in New Zealand.
2. There’s also a data dump for July from China on Thursday, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment and property investment. ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing is also expecting money supply data to reflect weak consumer demand and property lending.
3. Zhaopeng also says strong headline CPI inflation data on Friday obscured underlying deflationary forces because bad weather in July inflated food prices.
4. He says the Peoples Bank of China is unlikely to cut rates in the short term to stimulate against that sluggish demand, having cut just two weeks ago. He said fiscal stimulus is not coming to the rescue.
5. Hopes that the Philippines’ central bank can cut this month hit some headwinds in the form of strong GDP growth data last week. ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty says a robust labour market means retail spending remains strong.

Plus in our 5-minute deep dive interview:

My colleague Alex Tarrant spoke with ANZ Economist Krystal Tan about what a second Trump presidency might mean for Asian exports.

Cheers

Bernard

PS: Catch you tomorrow with a look ahead at Australian wages data.

#5in5withANZ free daily on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube and Substack from 6 am Sydney/Melbourne time. FYI Richard Yetsenga