How swarming tactics from autonomous are revolutionizing military strategy

#Technology and #autonomous #solutions are revolutionizing the way we are conceiving the #future of the #Polish #Army. At a moment where our leaders are giving a strong impulse and the related fundings to modernize this institution, #military #intelligence and #counterintelligence are critical to be understood at all levels, from politicians to the soldier on the ground. Of course, we are not going to reveal any secret from the Polish Intelligence Agency (S?u?ba Wywiadu Wojskowego), but based on #opensource reports, we're going to shake their usual secrecy traditional approach and insuflate a "wind of change" that Scorpions has been so keen on singing about. Following the downing of the Moskwa Frigate in the Black Sea down to Gorky Park, we're going to listen to the wind of change.

OSINT as a disruptor of the Intelligence community

And this wind of change is called #OSINT. But first, let's understand the target for this institution. Historically, after #WWII, Poland has been occupied by #Russia, who systematically used the military to control the #security structures and the #economy, the #society, the #culture, and the #technological state and processes in the White Eagle's land. This resulted in a deep inneficiency of our military intelligence and counter-intelligence systems that we are seeing nowadays. I'm not at all an expert, but looking at the military spendings, at the level of our universities and our post-soviet model, there are a lot of things to change if we want not only to import western military #technology and export used #equipments. This article is therefore not only related to the military, but also to the militaro-economic complex (PGZ Stocznia Wojenna, PZL ?widnik and many more...). It is also intending to rectors and vice-rectors of our universities and academies, to our teachers of sciences and mathematics, to our students, and to our teenagers interested in gaming and technology.

For this first article, which is between a non-technical amateur report and a low-level technical report, I'm not going to deepen as far as the needed speed of the rotors for #drones used for #swarming #tactics, but I'm going to explain the strategy behind that should be followed by our Army to keep up with these technologies overall. We're going to jump from a military branch to another, from a military speciality to another... And I welcome any #soldier or #commander willing to deepen the subject and who wants to get onboard this wonderful military intelligence adventure through a #cooperation (ask your commander first!) or a #reaction. I had the chance when I came first in Poland in 2012 to live next to two soldiers who really got my mind triggered by these topics, but I had some projects before based on #Sketchup designs and an idea that autonomous technologies were the future of both precision firing (sorry for #Hollywood movie stars who love to fire at will). This was deepened with my encounter with my military mentor at a race (#GROM CHALLENGE 2014) and his speciality as a #sniper definitely confirmed this strategy.

From the Duke to swarming tactics.

Indeed, #precision #shooting is crucial to understand: from the troops packed in line with #muskets trying to fire at around 50 meters to eventually reach an opponent to the highly accurate 3,540m record by Chris Kyle's kill count, we see that improvments both in technology, individual #skills and collective #training have rendered impossible things possible. As we are speaking about precision shooting, #autonomous #capacities with a combination of #thermal, #movement, #sound gathering #sensors can get the job done with more precision. The first category gets you the #acquisition of the target at instant T. The second gets you the first position seen, the second position spotted, the direction, the speed and other data at T+1 and you can deduct from it when and where the shot should be fired at instant T+2, bearing in mind external data like weather. The above example shows how technology brings precision and reduces the need to have a two members sniper team (a sniper and a #marksman / #bodyguard).

Getting that, we see that technology moved the sniper team from the rear to the front. While snipers where first used rather at the back of trenches as a backup, the movie “Stalingrad” shows the #urban use by specially formed units, desorganizing whole units by killing their commanders. Nowadays, we have five types of units available:

1. Human-only: One man, one riffle, one magazine, one shot.
2. Human team: More data, more precision, more efficiency.
3. Data assisted shooting (one man or team): more data brought to the shooter and the marksman, increasing the shooting precision. Anti-fog or anti-rain optics...)
4. IOT assisted shooting: Imagine now that Chris Kyle had three drones he could send at a reasonable range of the target, and gather additional real time data: sound, image, position, counter-measures...). All these informations transferred in real time to a voice assisting device or to the screen used for shooting. Far more efficient.
5. Autonomous shooting: I'm sorry to inform you that Chris Kyle is dead. Now we need to rely on technology only. So we need to create a drone able to carry a sniper autonomous gun and get it back. But we can combine with more drones associated, more data. A bit heavier to have a mini server attached to the drone, but anyway, there is noone to complain about the weight. Because drones can't complain. Infiltration, shooting, extraction. No DNA left. No soldier endangered. Remote management.

Now imagine that with aerial capacities you can bring to the #battlefield not one such a 5th generation drone, but ten, twenty or fifty in a small #town. Every flat school roof top, every social housing building, every commercial center, every parking lot can be deadly for enemies. You can get down not only one commander, but even a special forces unit or even a whole unit.

Indeed, this requires the intervention time to be minimized. But thanks to civilian open-source intelligence, you have registered the position of the town, of the buildings with flat roofs, of everything. You have #GEOINT data. You have #centralizeddata from existing local public #CCTV systems, #network is provided by McDonalds, your bank ATM and your local restaurant. You even have an #emergencysystem based on #civilianintelligence warning you there is a #tank in the street. But once again, instead of endengering civilians with taking up a picture with their phone, you get #localdata from your local #marketing company which acquired a civilian drone to make nice aerial pictures and promotional videos of their hometown during #peace. Or a flower pot with a camera. Thanks to that, you know in #realtime where the tank is moving, which #unit he belongs to, who is the #commander, what type of #armor and lethal defense it has... etc... Now, your drone is heading to the target right away and autonomously.

Technological counter-measures and the mobile Iron Dome for Heavy Cavalry

But there is still an obstacle. Don't expect the #Armata not to be built with #countermeasures: thanks to sensors, it can detect #targets beyond the reach of the eye or the ear, providing the tank crew with accurate data on #threats. But thanks to civilian interference (they somehow play #heavymetal with speakers and did set up some baricades with used #tires they set in fire, so it's dark outside), you can still make it, but only because the reds didn't get the thermal sensors they needed on their #turrets because of economic #sanctions.

At an #armoredcavalry level, we can see already some really good technology coming in and the concept of mobile #IronDome for tanks is shaping. The idea is to have a #proactive data-based #defense. More data, more sensors... the Armata cannot be defeated. Damn...

Wait a minute: How much does weight the Armata with all these equipment? Do they have unlimited #machineguns and #ammunition provided by a cheat code (the famous #bandana in #MetalGearSolid)? No. And here is the trick with the #swarm of drones: You flood the #enemy's defence with a swarm of drones and it will focus on #identifying one by one the targets to eliminate. The #radar will #detect easily on a zone incoming multiple threats, at different range, altitude, speed, will take on weather conditions and assess the #probability they will reach the target to define the #order to shoot at based on a #risklevel approach. OK, but your machine gun #support system still carries only 100.000 #bullets, and your machine gun still can shoot max 6.000 bullets at a minute at 850m range. The problem? Drones are not only firing highly technological #missiles, but also #Molotovcocktails at high altitude (2km). Of course they have a system that calculates the time between the order to drop and the impact, and thanks to the data they have from IOT next to the tank, they know exactly where it will be in the next 30 seconds. Unreachable by the machine gun, they are deadly. Also, imagine that the machine gun is attached to the turret and cannot fire #3D360Deg. Another technological obstacle. Now last thing: because it's a swarm of drones, even with the high speed high range machine gun you have, they can cope with max 20 drones, providing they are not surprising the tank at a corner of a street where the sensors didn't have time to detect the swarm.

Indeed, tanks are not made to manoeuver in towns. Not even in small cities. Not at all in swamps and forests. Barely on roads where #IEDs data based can be triggered. Is it the end of heavy cavalry? no. But they will need to improve and remember that as for the film “Pentagon's wars”, adding an extra turret to the tank is not exactly the best option to make this tank #unkillable.

We spoke here about tanks, but it applies also at #sea and on the #air. How much do you have #flares on a #fighter? How much rounds on a #ship's #antiaircraft automated system? This is why swarming tactics are redefining the #ArtOfWar for all units and the #PolishTerritorialDefense needs not only to invest regionally in small to medium production capacities / factories and include a #CTO (Chief Technological Officer) at the brigade, battalion and company levels, but also a #CPO (Chief Production Officer), a #CIO (Chief Information Officer) and a #CISO (Chief IT Security Officer). And that means we need to change the way we see the #Army. More data, more #accuracy, more #support, and more deadly troops. Indeed, counter-measures like #jamming or #destruction of technology is to fear, but a #303AutonomousAerialBatallion needs to be formed as soon as possible, and we need the #WOT to change the shape of the #PolishArmy from now.

Setting up a technology #foundation that will work on such #projects, together with the above mentionned institutions is necessary and we are expecting everybody from Units commanders in Poland to the #NationalCenterforResearchandDevelopment (NCBR) to work actively on such projects, that need to give WOT a #MinimumViableProduct to #test by the end of the year.

Franciszek Ksawery Pelletier