How to Survive in a VUCA World

Welcome to first in a series of 3 articles on surviving in VUCA world.

The impact of the corona virus has been unprecedented and just when we were beginning to relax a little and feel a sense of the world righting on its axis,?Russia invaded Ukraine and our world is once again teetering on a precipice. ??Over the past 2 years we have faced changes to our working lives, our social lives, and our freedom of movement, now we face the threat of all-out war.?We see the devastating impact in Ukraine, millions of people forced by the conflict to leave their homes, men more used to spending a day on a laptop now learning to use rocket launchers. There is huge pressure on Government and personal finances due to the volatility of the energy market and the spectre of high inflation and high taxation looms.?If ever the phrase “VUCA” felt even more appropriate to use other than in 2020, it’s now.?

?So, what is this so called VUCA model??

When?military planners first came up with the VUCA model, they were reacting to the end of the Cold War, which is ironic considering the current news.?The model addressed a world suddenly devoid of certainty in which events were Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous – hence the acronym. ?And here we are again - VUCA is now describing what seems to be the default state of our world!

We’ve all had to adapt to change and whilst we may not like some of the changes forced upon us, we’ve had little or no choice but to adapt and deal with a world where change could be even greater and more devastating, where the future is much less predictable, and where our options may increase or decrease exponentially.?Therefore the way we think about these options must change.?

VUCA is not a problem to be solved.?It is a shift in our perspective of the world. The VUCA environment we are in means that we must focus on what is possible (because anything can happen) rather than on what is likely to occur (which is determined more by what happened before).?

The “V” in the VUCA acronym stands for volatility. It means the nature, speed, volume, and magnitude of change that is not in a predictable pattern. Volatility is turbulence, turbulence that is becoming more frequent than ever in the past.??

The “U” in the acronym stands for uncertainty, or the lack of predictability in issues and events. These volatile times make it difficult for leaders to use past issues and events as predictors of future outcomes, making forecasting extremely difficult and decision-making challenging.

The “C” in VUCA stands for complexity. There are often numerous and difficult to understand causes and mitigating factors (both inside and outside of an organisation) involved in a problem. This layer of complexity, added to the turbulence of change and the absence of past predictors, adds to the difficulty of decision making.?

It also leads to confusion, which can cause ambiguity, "A" the last letter in the acronym.

Ambiguity is the lack of clarity about the meaning of an event, or the “causes and the ‘who, what, where, how, and why’ behind the things that are happening that are unclear and hard to ascertain. Ambiguity in the VUCA model is the “inability to accurately conceptualize threats and opportunities before they become lethal.” A symptom of organisational ambiguity is the frustration that occurs when individual achievements fail to add up to a comprehensive or enduring success.

Countering VUCA

The VUCA model vividly identifies the internal and external conditions affecting organisations today and also points to how leaders can embrace the model in their response to these conditions.?

For example, volatility can be countered with vision because vision is even more vital in turbulent times. Leaders with a clear vision of where they want their organisations to be can better weather volatile changes, for example, by making business decisions to counter the turbulence while keeping the organisation’s vision in mind.

Uncertainty can be countered with understanding, the ability of a leader to stop, look, and listen. To be effective in a VUCA environment, leaders must learn to look and listen beyond their functional areas of expertise to make sense of the volatility and to lead with vision. This requires leaders to communicate with all levels of employees in their organisation, and to develop and demonstrate teamwork and collaboration skills.

Complexity can be countered with clarity, the deliberative process to make sense of the chaos. In a VUCA world, chaos comes swift and hard. Leaders, who can quickly and clearly tune into all of the factors associated with the chaos, can make better, more informed business decisions.

Finally, ambiguity can be countered with agility, the ability to communicate across the organisation and to move quickly to apply solutions. Vision, understanding, clarity, and agility are not mutually exclusive. Rather, they are intertwined elements that help managers become stronger VUCA leaders. VUCA leaders must have foresight to see where they are going but must also remain flexible about how they get there. They must be self-aware, adaptable, open to change and knowledgeable about their organisation beyond their function. Finally, they must be excellent communicators and work collaboratively to thrive in this complex environment. Above all, VUCA leaders must be able to learn fast because change is constant.

This article has been bought to you by PRISM Brain Mapping, a revolution in understanding human behaviour. In our next article we will be exploring Leadership Agility in a VUCA world.