How to Spot Technical Chart Patterns and Know When to Sell
This article begins an insightful series dedicated to enhancing your trading and investing acumen. I’m offering this series exclusively to our valued members at no cost. It will delve into recognizing technical chart patterns and provide strategic guidance on deciding the best times to sell stocks within your portfolio.
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Key Points
Navigating Investment Cycles: A Personalized Insight
Investment errors generally have two root causes: acquiring the wrong asset or mistiming the purchase. Historical patterns reveal that nearly all investments tend to flourish in bullish markets. Even less promising assets can yield profits when bought during market upswings. Conversely, the scenario is starkly different in downturns, particularly bear markets. Historical data indicates that over 80% of stocks lose value during such periods, making ill-timed purchases a common pitfall leading to losses.
Since 2000, bear markets have emerged roughly every 4.2 years, with an average downturn of 34%. This underscores the importance of informed investing. While strategic trading can be immensely rewarding for savvy investors, it poses significant risks for those less informed.
Here’s a breakdown of major bear markets from 2000 to 2025 and their impacts:
Calculating the average decline from these periods gives us:
Average Decline = (49 + 57 + 19 + 20 + 34 + 25)/6 = 34%
This average decline of 34% over the past 25 years highlights the volatility and potential hazards in market cycles.
During the same timeframe, from 2000 to 2025, we experienced four bull markets, occurring approximately every 6.25 years. Bull markets are notable for substantial gains, with the period from 2009 to 2019 seeing the S&P 500 rise by over 300%. Historically, since 1957, bull markets have returned more than 169% on average. Specifically, from 2000 to 2025, the average return during bull market cycles was about 97.6%.
Here’s a breakdown of major bull markets from 2000 to 2025 and their impacts:
S&P 500 Index, Performance, 2000-2025 with Recessions Shown in Gray Color
This average decline of 34% in bear markets contrasts with the potential for significant gains (on average 97.6%) during bull markets. Understanding these cycles is crucial, as it highlights the volatility and potential opportunities in market dynamics, emphasizing the need for strategic and informed investment choices.
If we analyze the long-term trend for the S&P 500 Index, we see a spectacular bullish trend. Since 2009, the market has continued to rise with some short-lived corrections relative to the observed time period. Only in 2011 and 2020 did the stock market drop, crossing below the 100-day moving average to the downside. However, after crossing the 100-day moving average, the market quickly recovered to the previous level and afterward continued to move even higher.
Looking at the long-term chart below, uninformed investors may say: “Buy-and-Hold theory is working perfectly even nowadays. Passive investment brings results, so there is no need to manage the portfolio actively”. Convincing you to make a “Buy-and-hold” investment is the top priority of any investment fund, mutual fund, or investment firm. This is because they get trailing commissions based on total invested volume. Therefore, moving your money out of the market and into cash is not something any of these funds or banks ever want to do. But let’s examine the “Buy-and-Hold” strategy a bit closer. This theory has been around for many years. In reality, yes, for investors who pursued a Buy-and-Hold strategy from 2000 to 2025, the average annual return of the S&P 500, including dividends, was approximately 7-8% per year. This period includes significant market events such as the dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic, influencing the overall returns. Investment firms all have some excellent charts to show you that holding an investment can be profitable.
Example calculation: According to historical data, if you had invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2000, it would have grown to approximately $665.24 by the end of 2024, assuming all dividends were reinvested. This represents a total return of 565.24% or an average annual return of about 7.93% per year. Using the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) formula and historical data, we can estimate an average annual return for any asset of interest over any specified period.
S&P 500 Index Total Cumulative Return, 2009-YtD
Most firms use what is called a 20-year rolling time period. This means that investments held for 20 years have consistently been profitable. Why do you think “20” is the magic number? Because anything less than 20 would not necessarily work. This is because, as I mentioned above, the stock market moves in cycles. Those investors who bought the stocks during the early stages of the bull market cycle realized profits. However, the investors who jumped into the stocks at the bull market peak cycle realized high losses and could recover those losses only after a few years, meaning zero profit. The point is that the “Buy-and-Hold” strategy is only correct under certain, almost perfect market conditions.
Let’s consider another example: in November 2007, the stock market was near an all-time high and topping out. Investors who purchased the ETFs during that period made huge losses and were forced to hold the investment for a long time, just waiting for a break-even. Here is another troubling fact you should be aware of. In 2007, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) experienced significant inflows. On September 18, 2007, SPY had net inflows of $15.6 billion. This was a notable event, reflecting the highest level of investor interest in ETFs during that period.
In 2024, U.S. ETFs saw record-breaking inflows. The total inflows for U.S.-listed ETFs reached $1.12 trillion. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) alone attracted an incredible $113 billion, making it the first individual ETF to see over $100 billion in inflows in a calendar year. During the last stages of a bull market run, the inflow of money historically reaches the highest levels before severe stock market corrections. The same scenarios happened in 1999-2000, in 2007, in 2011, in 2018, in 2020.
Vanguard S&P500 ETF, as an Example For Market Cycle Returns
As you can see from the above analysis, market timing is very important for long-term investors and is often the most difficult part of investing. You should never buy a stock, an ETF, or a mutual fund at a price it might be presently selling for. Investing during the wrong market cycle can turn your investments into a disaster, especially for investors who use significant leverage.
Evolution of Stock Market Sentiment Analysis: Insights from 2007 to 2025
Drawing from years of professional experience, I’ve observed significant shifts in how stock market sentiment is analyzed. Let’s explore these changes by comparing the methodologies of 2007 and 2025.
2007: Traditional Approaches
In 2007, sentiment analysis relied heavily on investor surveys, market indicators, and behavioral finance theories. Key methodologies included:
2025: Advanced Techniques
In today’s landscape, sentiment analysis leverages cutting-edge tools and technologies:
The efficient use of information today suggests that the stock market itself may have become more efficient compared to earlier periods like 2000-2020.
Comparative Insights:
Despite the enhanced insights AI models provide, they are not infallible and cannot guarantee precise market peak predictions. Investors should consider AI predictions as one of several tools in their decision-making arsenal. Therefore, I will also cover technical charting patterns as a proven, reliable tool for forecasting future market behavior.
The Critical Role of Chart Patterns in Modern Trading
To effectively anticipate market movements, one must start by analyzing technical chart patterns. Interpreting these charts is arguably the most reliable method for predicting future market directions, even surpassing the capabilities of advanced AI algorithms. Extensive analysis of a company’s financials or the broader economic landscape won’t reveal the insights that a stock chart provides.
Today, algorithmic and robotic trading dominate a significant portion of the stock market. In the U.S., algorithmic trading constitutes approximately 60% to 73% of equities trading. This trend is echoed in Europe, where about 60% of trading is algorithmic, and in the Asia Pacific region, it represents around 45%.
These statistics underscore the importance of charting in AI-driven trading and investment strategies. Algorithms frequently employ moving averages, such as the 50-day and 200-day averages, to detect trends and trigger buy or sell signals.
Moreover, indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD, and Bollinger Bands are essential tools for evaluating market conditions, further demonstrating the indispensable role of technical analysis in today’s trading environment.
While the above-mentioned technical indicators are essential in short-term trading and investing, I realized that the most critical part for a long-term investor is to recognize early enough the primary trend of the market cycle. This is basically a so-called helicopter view of the market performance from the long-term perspective.
Three Main Stages of Primary Market Trends
Understanding Market Phases: Bull and Bear Markets
The Accumulation Phase in Bull Markets
The initiation of a bull market is marked by what we call the accumulation phase. Picture this: following a major market downturn, savvy investors, often the large funds or “Whales,” begin purchasing stocks at discounted prices. These experienced market participants recognize the potential for value and step in during this phase.
Investments made during the accumulation phase often yield the greatest returns. Recognizing this phase early is crucial, and investment professionals like Ki-Wealth can assist you in identifying these market cycles. With years of professional expertise and advanced AI tools, Ki-Wealth is poised to help you make informed, long-term investments.
Strategy Insights from My Experience
From what I’ve observed, large funds typically avoid the Dollar-Cost-Averaging strategy during a continuous market decline. They don’t buy at the market’s peak, and they do not sell at the trough. Instead, these funds remain liquid, waiting patiently on the sidelines with cash. Once it’s clear that the market has bottomed out and the risk of further decline is minimal, they make their move. This is when the potential for future growth is high, and they begin investing. During this accumulation phase, it’s wise to expand your investment portfolio. You must learn to mirror the Whales. Avoid jumping into the market after it’s been on a long upward trend, as this often leads to likely risks of a market correction. Pay no attention to the chatter from pundits on TV or social media. Don’t follow the herd. People will always be writing articles or appearing on camera, insisting that the market will continue to rise. The more you hear this, the more cautious you should be.
If you’re investing independently and aren’t confident in identifying the accumulation phase, it’s wise to be involved during what’s known as the public participation phase. This phase follows the accumulation stage, which marks the onset of a new bull market cycle. As the trend progresses, it enters the most prolonged of the three primary phases: the public participation phase. During this period, earnings growth and economic indicators generally show improvement. Companies often offer future projections and guidance that exceed analysts’ expectations. They typically revise their forecasts upward rather than downward. Recognizing this is crucial when attempting to anticipate a future market trend reversal. Additionally, remember the previously mentioned statistic: historically, every three and a half years, there’s either a bear market or at least a 20% correction in the stock market.
As we consider the current stock market situation in the U.S., it is clear that the market is closer to the distribution phase with consistently growing risks of the stock market correction. The distribution phase is the most difficult to recognize, and this phase frequently catches investors and traders unaware. The market is in a highly advancing trend, and many think it will continue moving higher. The social media are screamingly bullish, investment sentiment is cautiously optimistic, and inexperienced investors continue to buy, thinking that the Higher-Highs strategy will bring them significant returns. Remember the whales, the savvy money buyers investing during the accumulation phase? These are the ones that sell in the distribution phase (they are most likely selling now). Small investors and traders who are caught unaware usually do all the buying during the distribution phase. This is a loss-making investment strategy for small investors and unaware traders.
And here is the point in which I specify precisely how you should recognize the beginning of a distribution phase of the stock market: the market tops after an extended advance; the market seems to get tired, trading volume (I will explain in my following articles) is slowly drying up. The market stops advancing and starts to move sideways. The market stops making new highs. It has the slowly exhausting momentum to push higher. Economic and political uncertainty gradually accumulates. Companies provide lower-range financial guidance for the following quarters. The market expects higher inflation and a slowing growth rate compared to previous quarters. All these features should serve as red signals for a small investor. Your strategy during these periods: take profit in your investments, sell continuously loss-making investments in your portfolio, and increase your cash. In the following articles from the “Technical Chart Patterns” series, I will continue educating investors and providing the most insightful, valuable tools for profitable investing. Stay tuned with me!
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