How should you handle a recession during your retirement years?

With the current high inflation and high-interest rates, would it be a wise decision to retire soon?

Some of you might think, should you continue working for a while longer just in case?

It can be stressful to consider these when you are preparing for your retirement.

Some of my clients have also brought up their concerns about the rising interest affecting their existing mortgage loans and other leveraged investments.

Some people have also brought up fears of a recession, and if they are still on track to retire early.

During times of uncertainty and market volatility like this, it’s all about managing your risks and using the right strategy that’s adjusted to the current climate.

Here, I will share with you some of the fears, questions, and mistakes that some investors make during a crisis like this, and what we can take away so we avoid making these mistakes.

No recession mirrors the other, so what can you expect?

Every recession is different. There were oil crises, credit crises and health crises.

And what happened during past recessions cannot predict future ones.

In 2022, factors such as geopolitical issues such as China’s lockdown and the Russian-Ukrainian war snowballed into a supply chain crisis globally. China and Russia are two of the largest economies in the world.

Do you think we are going to face a recession due to the supply chain disruption and high inflation that’s happening right now?

One thing all recessions had in common was they were unpredictable. You can expect a lot of uncertainty.

Although the world had its fair share of recessions, it is important not to assume there would be a simple step-by-step guide to recessions.

But what we can do is learn from each recession and prepare our investments and financials for any uncertainties that can possibly happen.

Should you cash out your investments now?

During market uncertainties, extreme volatilities that may be induced by fears and panic in the market might take a toll on your wealth.

Generally, the financial markets are not doing so well as of late 2021 up until 2022 because of the economic influences highlighted above.

From the start of 2022, the S&P 500 index saw a decreasing trend. For context, this index tracks the stock performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. market.

Even bond prices have fallen due to the increasing interest rates.

The Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund tracks the performance of USD-denominated bonds. The Exchange Traded Fund consists of a mix of US Treasury bills, government-related bonds, corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

This fund had also been experiencing a decreasing price trend since early 2022.

To further illustrate this, our current economic condition is actually a combination of high inflation and slow economic growth. According to the economic rotation quadrant framework below, we are in the ‘Inflationary Bust’ quadrant.

And according to this quadrant, financial assets are seen to be of higher risk and keeping cash in the safest currency would have a lower risk of losing money.

But will you really be better off cashing out your investments to avoid losing money to the markets now?

Frankly, there are many factors to weigh:

• Cashing out may enable you to avoid further potential losses from short-term volatilities.
• But it is important to know that withdrawing without the right strategy during a volatile market condition might cause you to lose more money in the long run.
• This is because of two things: 1) You will realise your paper losses and 2) Because you are no longer invested, you miss out on any possibility of recovery from the losses.
• Consequently, your nest egg may deplete faster than expected! Refer to the illustration below on the potential consequences of retiring during a good market versus during a market crash!

That is why your withdrawal strategy is important in order to mitigate any losses in a market crash so that your retirement nest egg remains sustainable for you!

• If you cash out now, you would need to re-enter your investments later on to continue growing your wealth. Would you know when is the right time to re-enter so you don’t make losses?
• If you enter when an asset is still falling in price, you might be catching a falling knife. Some assets might require time (even decades) to recover – can you afford to wait?
• Not many investors are capable of timing the market strategically as it requires extensive knowledge and analysis to do it right.
• If you withdraw and do nothing, rising inflation will still cause you to lose the value of your money, through the loss of purchasing power.

So if you want to cash out, it highly depends on your ability to time the market well.

Otherwise, if you are invested in a well-diversified portfolio with good asset allocation, it might be better to stay invested for the long term.

The most important thing is to find the right balance between preserving your wealth, maintaining cash flow and minimising losses accordingly to your investment profile.

Are you retiring soon and keen to find out if you want to maximise your returns or preserve your wealth?

Find the full article here https://www.thefinlens.com/blog/wealth-preservation-for-retirement-during-recession