How to see a way forward.
Making critical decisions with insufficient knowledge is the toughest test for any leader and our politicians are clearly not up to the task; they prefer to dodge the big questions until they have overwhelming support from all sides. That might be their problem with Climate Change; they’re waiting for the kind of complete and perfect certainty they’re not going to get until the opportunity for action has well and truly gone.
So how do real leaders do it? By choosing the FUTURE they want and working backwards to discover what they must do to get there.
They’d break the climate issue down to two options (we ACT or we DON'T) and two possibilities (it’s REAL or it’s FAKE) then consider two resulting outcomes (BEST or WORST case scenarios) to get eight (2x2x2) FUTURES to choose from:
If we ACT and it’s TRUE then the BEST and WORST outcomes are:
- FUTURE #1 (a healthy, happy world for our kids) or
- FUTURE #2 (a world that is awful but maybe still liveable).
But what if we ACT and it’s FALSE? Then we’re on the path to either:
- FUTURE #3 (we put the next generation ahead of our own, just in case) or
- FUTURE #4 (thousands of jobs and whole industries killed off).
If we do nothing and it turns out it’s TRUE? Welcome to either:
- FUTURE #5 (we enjoy the benefits of our fossil economy while we can) or
- FUTURE #6 (total environmental, social and economic disaster).
If we relax and hope it’s FALSE (current government policy) we’re facing:
- FUTURE #7 (in which we celebrate our dumb luck, maybe with fireworks) or
- FUTURE #8 (we never trust another scientist again).
Now, the folks who think (or hope) that climate change is FALSE (and therefore resist action) are terrified of FUTURE #4, whereas the people who accept the science as REAL (and therefore demand action) dread FUTURE #6.
If the scientists are wrong, then we destroy jobs and industries for nothing.
If the deniers are wrong we destroy everything, (including jobs and industry).
I wish I knew with 100% certainty which group is right, but, truth is, I don’t.
BUT I KNOW WHO CANNOT AFFORD TO BE WRONG.
And that's more than enough to make a decision on.
If you found this useful, please share it with others! I'm really keen to get your thoughts/comments/feedback/suggestions... they're so much more meaningful than 'likes' so if you could take a moment to engage with me it would make my day!
Founder of the Better Life Lab
5 年Love this Jason Clarke Highlights an issue for many leaders across many disciplines. The focus and decisions being made are measured by short-term thinking and metrics while true leadership direction and decisions and being starved of oxygen. Finding clarity in complexity is a critical skill for any modern day leader.
Principal of Rubicon Outdoor School
5 年Great perspective and conversation starter, thanks Jason. The comment about leaders choosing the future “they want” is also part of the equation, it can often come at the expense of what others (local/global) need, their wisdom to listen and the capacity and space for leaders to acknowledge their fallibility and, as you noted to ACT. Thanks again.
Helps you find the heart of your story.
5 年Thanks Jason, a good way to think this huge issue through in an accessible way for readers to follow. It’s a good framework to build discussions on, and demonstrates that it is possible to envisage our possible futures, and to make some choices about how we move in a chosen direction/s. I have seen futuring processes work well before, and indeed with good thinking even be able to anticipate future unknown events and develop options. This sort of process is almost like acting in a Tactical way about big and unknown Strategic issues.
Helping Business Leaders Deliver Effective Communication & Presentations | Build Your Confidence, Increase Impact & Save Time | Communication Specialist | Media & Storytelling Expert | Leadership Coach / ABC Broadcaster.
5 年such a great way to look at it. Thanks Jason!