How to rewrite risks as assumptions in order to get traction

Project risks are often-times hard to get traction on. Whilst the risks are real, getting the people in an organisation to take action to mitigate risks always seems like an uphill battle.

Reframing your risks as assumptions can unlock action. Once a risk is defined as an assumption, the action needed to validate the assumption is clearer. The need to ‘check’ the assumption is valid is more acute than the need to solve a risk and action is more likely to ensue.

Converting risks into assumptions involves a systematic reframing process to focus on what needs to happen for the project to succeed, rather than what might go wrong.

Step 1: Identify the Risk

Write out the risk clearly, using a cause-effect-impact structure:

If [something happens], then [negative event might occur], which will [impact the project].

Example:

If key stakeholders are unavailable for decision-making, then critical decisions will be delayed, which will impact the project timeline.

Step 2: Focus on the Desired Outcome

Reframe the risk by identifying the opposite, positive condition that needs to hold true to prevent the risk.

• Ask yourself: What needs to happen for this risk not to materialize?

Example:

Key stakeholders need to be available for decision-making to avoid delays.

Step 3: Write as an Assumption

Express the desired condition as an expectation or assumption that supports the project’s success:

• Use the format: [Something will happen] to ensure [positive outcome].

Example:

Key stakeholders will be available for timely decision-making to keep the project on schedule.

Step 4: Simplify and Align with Project Goals

Ensure the assumption:

• Is written positively and simply.
• Clearly aligns with project goals and success criteria.

Step 5: Test the Assumption

Evaluate whether the assumption:

1. Is realistic and can reasonably hold true.
2. Highlights a dependency that must be monitored or verified.

If the assumption feels too uncertain, revisit it and consider whether it should remain a risk.

Examples of Conversions

Here are a few examples of how to apply these steps:

Risk: If vendor deliveries are delayed, then the project will not have the required materials on time, which will impact the project schedule.

Assumption: Vendors will deliver all required materials on time to support the project schedule.

Risk: If requirements are not clearly defined, then development may include unnecessary work, which will increase costs and delay delivery.

Assumption: All requirements will be clearly defined and agreed upon to avoid unnecessary work.

Risk: If communication channels fail, then information may not be shared effectively, which will lead to misunderstandings and rework.

Assumption: Communication channels will remain effective to ensure clear and accurate information sharing.

Key Tips for Success

1. Be Positive: Assumptions should always express positive expectations rather than potential failures.
2. Be Specific: Clearly state the condition and its contribution to project success.
3. Prioritise Realism: Assumptions should reflect achievable and verifiable conditions.
4. Link to Monitoring: Document assumptions in a way that makes it easy to monitor and revisit them if necessary. By making the metric obvious and the monitoring easy, you are more likely to get action on your assumptions than you may on your risks.