How Requiring Wearing Masks in Public can Save Millions of Lives and Trillion Dollars

I am no statistician or pandemics expert. Nevertheless, as a scientist who understands that Covid-19 spread exponentially in the public primarily through the transmission of coughs and sneezes from liquid droplets of the infected person. I believe that a simple act of requiring everyone to wear a non-surgical mask in the public can save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. I built a model in Excel to demonstrate the effect of this low-tech strategy to reduce Covid-19 spreading from non-symptomatic carriers. I understand exponential numbers and the power of compounding (like compound interest). Pardon my unsubstantiated assumptions I took from the Internet as I just wanted to illustrate a point of how to reduce exponential growth through a simple barrier placed strategically on the face of the wearer called a "face mask".

Here are my assumptions:

1. From a single Covid-19 carrier who can transmit to 3 contacts in an average of 5 days, the total number of infections will be an astronomical number of 59,000 in 50 days or 10 cycles.
2. If the government mandates the wearing of masks (non-surgical) in the public, it could reduce emission of virus-bearing liquid droplets by 80% by the infected wearer (particularly those super sneezers who can project droplets to 27 feet according to one study), and at least a reduction of >50% of the chances of droplets reaching his contacts' respiratory system since there is now a physical barrier to prevent direct entries. The mask also reduces the inadvertent touching of the month or nose by contaminated fingers of the wearer. The number of infections could now be reduced to only 14 or a huge 99.99% in 50 days according to this simplicit model.
3. The results are still spectacular of 99.9%+ reduction of infections by the more realistic compliance rate of 80% of the public wearing masks, and a even greater reduction by the simultaneous social distancing which can be devastating to the economy.

I heard that President Trump refused to wear a mask in the public, citing his personal preference and freedom of choice, as well as the rationale that he is frequently tested. Mike Pence said the same thing during his visit to the Mayo Clinic against a posted sign requiring wearing of masks within the facility. We respect Trump's freedom of choice though he forgets his undue influence on his staff and his millions of fans. A simple act for Trump by putting on a mask for just 15 minutes during the task force briefings could have saved millions of American lives and trillions of dollars by setting an example.

Social distancing and shutdowns are devastating to the economy as America has already lost 30 million jobs (1/4 of full time jobs) in the last two months. The act of just requiring everyone to wear a mask could be the low-cost measure to slow the spreading and allow a safer reopening without a vaccine.

Mask wearing may explain the substantially lower impacts of Covid-19 in densely populated Asian cities such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo, and even in Wuhan where mask-wearing is more acceptable and not a stigma.

Posted on 4/30/2020 during the seventh week of the great American Shutdown. I am getting cabin fever and have trouble telling weekdays from weekens by looking out of the windows.