How To Prevent The Next Pandemic

Pandemics have caused a great deal of human suffering during our time on this planet. Humanity needs to treat the cause of pandemics at the source instead of treating the downstream infections. Targeting the pandemic at its causal source is paramount in effectively preventing global catastrophes. One of the major causes of pandemics is meat consumption and unsanitary high-density farming practices. This is because 75% of human infectious diseases are acquired by zoonotic infection, the transmission of a virus from animals to humans. Some believe that nearly all human viral infections were originally zoonotic in origin [1]. Our current high-density meat production practices increase the chances of animal viruses spreading amongst themselves and eventually to us.

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant health and economic impacts worldwide. Evidence supports a Zoonotic Origin of COVID-19 with bats as the primary virus carrier [2]. The intermediate animal species that transmitted the virus from bats to humans is currently unknown.

Zoonotic infections can occur through consuming infected meat, infected animal body fluids, and through consuming contaminated farm runoff water [2]. Reducing our meat consumption and changing our protein production methods will reduce the chances of future zoonotic pandemics. 

In this article, I outline the relationship between factory farming and pandemics and conclude with how future pandemics can be prevented.   

History of Pandemics

During the 20th century, humanity faced three major influenza pandemics; the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919, the Asian Flu of 1957-1958, and the Hong Kong Flu of 1968. Collectively, these pandemics caused 20-55 million deaths worldwide and were zoonotic in origin [3]. 

The Spanish flu (H1N1) of 1918 infected a quarter of the world's population and killed over 50 million people. This viral pandemic is thought to have originated from birds passing the virus to pigs [4]. When humans ate the infected pig meat, they subsequently became infected. The virus circulated amongst the human and pig population from 2 to 15 years before becoming lethal [5].

The Asian Flu (H2N2) pandemic of 1957 killed 1.1 million people worldwide. Experts believe that this virus was transmitted to people through wild ducks or poultry [6].

The 1968 Hong Kong Flu (H3N2) pandemic killed 1 million people worldwide and occurred because of turkeys transmitting the virus to pigs who subsequently transmitted the virus humans [3]. 

The H1N1 swine flu pandemic that took place between 2009 to 2010 infected 1.4 billion people worldwide and was caused by infected pig meat consumption. The death toll of this virus was recently increased as new research indicates that it killed 151,600 to 575,400 people worldwide according to the CDC [7].

Recently, China and India announced bird flu outbreaks in several different regions [8,9] The mortality rate of bird flu is estimated to be 60% making it at least 10x more lethal than COVID-19, with H5N1 being the most common form of bird flu [10]. There have been sporadic H5N1 infections from poultry to humans contact since 1996. Thankfully, the widespread transmission of bird flu has not occurred since the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918. In order to prevent a global bird flu pandemic, we need to take action. Continued high-density poultry farming increases the risk of a bird flu pandemic outbreak. There has never been a global pandemic originating from outdoor chicken flocks. The transformation of local viral outbreaks to pandemics occurs when animals are farmed in high density, unsanitary conditions. 

High-Density Factory Farming 

Global meat consumption is on the rise as developing countries are increasing their meat consumption to match developed nations. To provide this meat, we have turned to factory farming where animals are bred and raised in high density, unsanitary environments. These factory farms are referred to as concentrated feeding operations (CAFOs). Factory farming worldwide accounts for 90% of meat production and 99% of meat production in the US [11]. These animals are packed tightly together and live in harsh, unsanitary conditions.

Example of a pig CAFO: 

There are two types of outbreaks that can lead to pandemics; viral and bacterial infections. Viral outbreaks are associated with things such as SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. While bacterial outbreaks are related to things such as the bubonic plague. Viral infections weaken the immune system making opportunistic bacterial infections like pneumonia more likely. Recently, research suggests that bacterial-induced pneumonia associated with viral infection was the major killer during the deadly Spanish Flu pandemic [12]. Factory farming accelerates the transmission of rapidly spreading viruses and bacteria, thereby increasing the probability of pandemics occurring.  

The World Health Organization stated that “livestock health is the weakest link in our global health chain” [13]. If you want to create a global pandemic, continue using factory farms for protein production.

Viral Transmission

When respiratory viruses enter these high-density farming facilities, they have the ability to rapidly replicate, mutate, and spread amongst animals. This, in addition to the continual addition of new animals, is a recipe for a pandemic. 

If wildlife sale and wet markets are banned in countries due to their high risk of zoonotic transmission then CAFOs in North America and other countries should also be banned. Animals in CAFOs are placed in dark, unsanitary, cramped enclosures and are packed so tightly together that they have trouble moving around. These stressful conditions promote the spreading of viruses as the pigs are exposed to their own decomposing waste [11].

Bacterial Transmission

In regard to bacterial pandemics, the FDA released data from 2014 indicating that 80% of antibiotics sold globally that year were given to livestock. Antibiotics are often used as a treatment for bacterial infections that livestock acquire due to living in unsanitary conditions [14]. The overuse of antibiotics in agriculture and medicine is promoting the development of antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria. 

Additionally, antibiotics can spill over into the surrounding environment such as through water runoffs [15]. In 2014 the Word Health Organization (WHO) released a report indicating that growing antimicrobial resistance is one of the biggest global health concerns of the 21st century [15].

Our current animal agriculture practices are having negative impacts on leafy greens as well. There were 713 produce related bacterial outbreaks between 1995 and 2005 due to contaminated animal farming water. Farms that are in close proximity to animal feedlots are at high risk of irrigating their soil with water containing harmful microorganisms such as E.coli [16].

Solutions

By now it’s clear that high-density animal farming is a major cause of pandemics and human suffering worldwide. Relying on factory farming is neither prudent nor pragmatic for protein production.

Meat consumption is on the rise globally, and therefore stopping meat consumption is not feasible. The UN estimates that by 2050, we need to produce 70% more food to feed the additional 2.3 billion people that will inhabit this planet [17]. Using conventional farming practices to supply the required protein for this amount of people is not possible.  

From an engineering and efficiency point of view, farming animals for protein production is not attractive. It is a slow, outdated, and damaging process.   

Animal agriculture takes up 80% of global agricultural land, yet only produces 20% of calories. Whereas only 20% of the world's agricultural land is used to produce 80% of global calories with plants [18].Using plants for protein production is more attractive as they use less water, grow faster, and convert energy into calories much more efficiently.  

Alternative methods for protein production include farmed meat alternatives such as plant-based meat and cultivated meat cells, bacterial/algae cultivation, changing farming practices, and reducing meat consumption. 

Plant-Based Meat And Cultivated Meat Cells

Recently, several companies have come out with plant-based meat alternatives that taste similar to their meat counterparts. Additionally, several start-ups have come into the biotech sphere hopping to create meat products like steaks and burgers from individual animal cells. This is a more efficient and sanitary protein production method compared to animal agriculture.

Bacterial, Algae and Insect Cultivation

When it comes to protein production, arguably the fastest method of production is through bacterial and micro-algae cultivation. Both are single-celled organisms that grow exponentially, producing large amounts of protein in a short period of time. 

Miro-algae are photosynthetic organisms that can be grown quite easily by feeding them carbon dioxide. Algae farms can be situated near sources that emit large amounts of carbon dioxide like concrete manufacturing plants to reduce their emissions. Micro-algae strains like Chlorella vulgaris contain significant protein levels as high as 63% dry weight [19]. In contrast, cooked beef has on average 27% protein by weight [20].

Algae would grow in photobioreactors as shown below or in open ponds.

There has been increasing interest in the use of insects for the production of protein. Insects are much better than animals at converting feed to protein and utilize much less water. The only barrier to this is that the cultural acceptance of insect consumption has not been widespread in western countries yet. 

Changing Farming Practices

Farming Practices need to change to prevent another global pandemic. Currently, programs are in place for the monitoring of viral outbreaks in high-density farms. If an outbreak is spotted in time such as the recent bird flu outbreaks in China, India, and the US, the infected animals are selectively killed. While this practice is effective, we are once again treating the outcome instead of the cause. If animals were not farmed so closely together, the risk of outbreaks occurring is much lower. Therefore, we should enact stricter regulations for reducing the density of animals that can be farmed in a certain area. Animals will have to social distance amongst themselves as well. 

Additionally, we will have to increase the rate at which plants can be grown. This can be accomplished through either altering their genes or their environment. There has been growing interest and research indicating that plant growth can be significantly increased and accelerated with genetic engineering tools such as CRISPR-Cas 9 [21]. These tools enable scientists to alter DNA, the code of life to increase plant size, growth rate, and make them more resistant to pathogens and pesticides. 

Plant growth can also be increased by optimizing their environment. Common methods of doing this are providing optimal nutrients, light, temperature, humidity, and carbon dioxide gas.

Traditionally, growers who have indoor greenhouses will use carbon dioxide gas to increase plant growth. Carbon dioxide for plants is analogous to oxygen for humans. They need it for photosynthesis, the process of converting sunlight, carbon dioxide, and water into energy and oxygen. The levels of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere average around 400 ppm where some growers will increase the amount of carbon dioxide in their grow rooms to 1500 ppm. Raising the carbon dioxide levels in greenhouses with gas is dangerous for workers, ineffective and costly. It is ineffective as the carbon dioxide gas will naturally diffuse out of the space if it is not airtight. Resulting in a loss of gas and lower plant growth.

There is a company called CO2 Gro Inc. that has a patented system for increasing plant yield with CO2 gas. Their revolutionary technology dissolves CO2 gas in water and delivers it to plants by misting the canopy for a few seconds up to four times an hour during the light cycle. This technology increases plant yield, enhances worker safety by adding CO2 to plants without altering the atmosphere growers breathe, and reduces a grower's carbon footprint through efficiency of delivery.

Additionally, the CO2 infusion and delivery cycle creates a pH imbalance on the leaf’s surface which deters microbial pathogens like E. coli and powdery mildew. This technology will soon be used worldwide to enhance both plant growth and grower revenues [22].

Our current meat production practices are neither sustainable nor safe. We need to reframe our idea of what sustainable and healthy protein production looks like for the sake of future generations. Humanity needs to diversify protein production from mainly animal agriculture to include microorganism, cellular, and plant-based protein manufacturing.

References:

1.    Akhtar, A. & Akhtar, A. The Welfare of Animals and Its Relevance to Our Health. in Animals and Public Health 1–26 (Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2012). doi:10.1057/9780230358522_1

2.    MacKenzie, J. S. & Smith, D. W. COVID-19: A novel zoonotic disease caused by a coronavirus from China: What we know and what we don’t. Microbiol. Aust. 41, 45–50 (2020).

3.    Frontiers 2017: Emerging Issues of Environmental Concern | UNEP - UN Environment Programme. Available at: https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/frontiers-2017-emerging-issues-environmental-concern. (Accessed: 28th April 2020)

4.    Worobey, M., Han, G. Z. & Rambaut, A. A synchronized global sweep of the internal genes of modern avian influenza virus. Nature 508, 254–257 (2014).

5.    1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC. Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html. (Accessed: 28th April 2020)

6.    Highly Pathogenic Asian Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus | Avian Influenza (Flu). Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-virus.htm. (Accessed: 5th May 2020)

7.    2009 H1N1 Pandemic (H1N1pdm09 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC. Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html. (Accessed: 28th April 2020)

8.    New bird flu spreading in China could jump to humans, scientists warn | ThinkPol. Available at: https://thinkpol.ca/2020/04/12/new-bird-flu-spreading-china-jump-humans-scientists-warn/. (Accessed: 28th April 2020)

9.    India reports bird flu cases in three separate locations | The Independent. Available at: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/india-bird-flu-kerala-cull-ducks-pets-a9404396.html. (Accessed: 28th April 2020)

10. Highly Pathogenic Asian Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus | Avian Influenza (Flu). Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-virus.htm. (Accessed: 28th April 2020)

11. Sentience Institute | US Factory Farming Estimates. Available at: https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/us-factory-farming-estimates. (Accessed: 28th April 2020)

12. Brundage, J. F. & Shanks, G. D. Deaths from bacterial pneumonia during 1918-19 influenza pandemic. Emerging Infectious Diseases 14, 1193–1199 (2008).

13. FAO - News Article: Surge in diseases of animal origin necessitates new approach to health - report. Available at: https://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/210621/icode/. (Accessed: 28th April 2020)

14. Administration, D. 2014 SUMMARY REPORT Antimicrobials Sold or Distributed for Use in Food-Producing Animals. (2015).

15.  WHO | Antimicrobial resistance: global report on surveillance 2014. Available at: https://www.who.int/antimicrobial-resistance/publications/surveillancereport/en/. (Accessed: 5th May 2020)

16. Luna-Guevara, J. J., Arenas-Hernandez, M. M. P., Martínez De La Pe?a, C., Silva, J. L. & Luna-Guevara, M. L. The Role of Pathogenic E. coli in Fresh Vegetables: Behavior, Contamination Factors, and Preventive Measures. (2019). doi:10.1155/2019/2894328

17. FAO - News Article: 2050: A third more mouths to feed. Available at: https://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/35571/icode/. (Accessed: 1st May 2020)

18. How much of the world’s land would we need in order to feed the global population with the average diet of a given country? - Our World in Data. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/agricultural-land-by-global-diets. (Accessed: 5th May 2020)

19. Bleakley, S. & Hayes, M. Algal Proteins: Extraction, Application, and Challenges Concerning Production. Foods 6, 33 (2017).

20. Beef 101: Nutrition Facts and Health Effects. Available at: https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/foods/beef. (Accessed: 1st May 2020)

21. Wang, T., Zhang, H. & Zhu, H. CRISPR technology is revolutionizing the improvement of tomato and other fruit crops. Horticulture Research 6, 1–13 (2019).

22. CO2 GRO Inc. Available at: https://www.co2gro.ca/pages/investors. (Accessed: 5th May 2020)