How to Predict the Future (Don’t)
Jason Calacanis
I invest in 100 new startups a year... get a meeting with my team at launch.co/apply, or learn how to start a company by joining founder.university (our 12-week course). watch thisweekinstartups.com if you love startups
Nobody can predict the future.
Everybody can tell you what’s possible.
The art is in knowing what’s probable.
I’ve spent the last 10 years investing in startups, half that time as a hobby and half that time as a career, and in that time I’ve learned that most people are scared, little aliens.
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All day long I ask people what they want to happen in the future and what their plan is to make that vision materialize, and the bold and true of heart answer these questions without pause. They have studied their market, talking to customers and doing competitive intelligence on incumbents. They have timelines they’ve built, tests they want to run and a plan B and C in case they run out, or get offered a bucketload, of money.
However, the majority of tourists I meet in startup land freeze like fragile snowflakes landing on a hardened lake, suddenly paralyzed by the realization that they’re a commodity, both in how they think and who they are.
They recite the codas of cowards with confidence: “well, nobody can predict the future” and “I guess it’s possible.”
What a profound realization! “It’s possible” and “no one knows the future,” that’s amazing! How did you come to this realization, and does anyone remember the quick key for the facepalm emoji?
As a writer, I hate wasted words, and as a (hu)man of action I hate cowardice and telling comrades that which they already know is their height of cowardice.
The job of elite investors and founders is to look at what’s inevitable and build a plan that accelerates that timeline and capture the value from that compression.
Self-driving cars are inevitable? It’s possible that humans will not die from car crashes in our lifetime!? That’s obvious, so let’s focus on building a product road map with all the milestones that need to be solved to get us there, that takes into account getting massive funding — from revenue and investors — that allows us to go 10x faster than anyone thought possible, crushing all cowards in our path.
It’s possible that robots will replace back-breaking manual labor? Fantastic, let’s make a list of the 100 things that haven’t been automated and figure out which ones are most probable to solve now (Roomba for cleaning floors and Cafe X for making coffee), and which ones are most probable after that’s done (drones to clean windows?).
When I look at an investment I don’t focus on what’s possible, I focus on what’s probable.
Five years ago I didn’t ask, is it possible the world will embrace meditation and mindfulness, I asked if it was probable that a large number of people would embrace it. It was clear to everyone that smartphones and subscriptions would enable it, and it was clear that a passionate minority were already embracing mindfulness on varying levels, but with tremendous results across the board.
The fact that it was so probable made it so much easier to make that bet.
If you catch yourself, or a partner, saying “it’s possible,” that’s an opportunity for y’all to dig in and do the hard work of asking if it’s probable.
On the podcast, I always ask folks to “set a line” for when we will have some amazing outcome, be it flying cars or general AI, and the resistance I face from intelligent people is just extraordinary.
Take a moment to “set a line” or put a percentage on your claims and watch how much better you get at this game called “startups.”
NerveLink Solutions ?? Privacy & Identity Management ?? Data Security ?? Business Growth Solutions ?? IT Manager
4 年You can never predict the future as that is why we call it "unknown". All we can do is live with the present and fulfill the duties and responsibilities we need to take care of so we can still think of ideas and creativity which might be helpful in the future. Always learn to know the importance of the present because you never know what future holds upon us.
Creating community @ Cheeky. [email protected]
4 年'The best way to predict the future is to create it'
Old Accountant
4 年here is a very highly probable that is backed up by weather events since Hurricane Katrina.? Climate crisis weather events are and will increase and governments will need good temporary shelters for residents affected.? Especially given the rape and robberies that occurred in the sports stadium where they housed many in New Orleans.? My foldable, portable and strong safe sleep shelters that I am wanting to use to help homelessness are a brilliant solution to future governments needs for emergency situations.? Also highly probable that the investor who chooses to back my shelters project will be helping homelessness and gaining shares in a highly valuable supplier of emergency shelters. Back me.? sleepshelters.com