How Peter Dutton can win the next election

James Allan 24 February 2024 The Spectator Australia

Faint Heart Never Won Fair Lady

It’s not often a columnist can find a sixteenth-century adage or aphorism that applies almost perfectly to the situation in which his country’s national opposition leader finds himself. But the maxim ‘faint heart never won fair lady’ pretty much nails the advice any actual friend of Peter Dutton should be giving the man right now. The phrase applies more directly in the context of dating or courting but its general meaning is that in life you often have to take risks to have a chance of attaining your desired result. So here it is for you, Mr Dutton, in a single pithy sentence: the no-cojones?Mark Textor approach of being a small target outfit that aims to park itself a centimetre to the right of an ever more left-leaning Labor is for losers. Got it?

Or do we just pretend that every single state Liberal party isn’t a complete mess? No core values of note. No willingness to fight on key cultural issues. Won’t take on a left-leaning legacy media. State MPs who give every impression of preferring to lose than fight on any front. The best of a poor state-level bunch will try to win in Queensland with a focus solely on youth crime, which will probably see them squeak over the line with no mandate to do anything (not that that stops Team Albanese of course). I mean, how bad do you have to be not to be miles ahead in Victoria after the lockdown thuggery, out-of-control spending and debt, weaponised wokery and the rest? (Answer: John Pesutto-bad, which is steroidally bad and incompetent and, apparently, not even able to distinguish your X and Y chromosomes.)

Here’s how I see things. Peter Dutton is the best we conservatives have in the whole country. After the Voice referendum, he had real momentum and was in a good position. But since then, what? It’s been back to the low-target, low-risk, failed approach of the last decade. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of Dutton’s advisors are telling him that, ‘Maybe – just maybe – we Libs can win back those Teal seats. Sure, they may have been about the only seats in the whole country (outside Canberra and the Green voting seats) to vote Yes to the Voice but that doesn’t matter, Pete. We can still win them back if we ignore all the issues our base wants to fight on and just, you know, talk about superannuation and the unions.’

That’s wrong on every level I’m afraid.? First off, if Dutton hasn’t fired every single advisor who told him to support the Voice he’s made a bad mistake. Secondly, by playing to Teal voters you lose working-class and suburban voters – most obviously on the ridiculously over-egged net-zero stuff but also on a host of cultural issues (see Herr Pesutto above). Thirdly, this Labor government is very, very left-wing.

I know the Morrison government was one of the worst Liberal governments of all time. It infringed more civil liberties than any government in our history for a virus that overwhelmingly killed those over their life expectancy age (which is not to say forget them but is to say focus on them and leave everyone else to make their own choices). Morrison’s government spent more and racked up more debt than any government since the Second World War. So it’s now pretty hard to pretend you’re the fiscally responsible team. Or the one that won’t print money with reckless abandon. But there are plenty of things Team Dutton could do now and should have done immediately after the Voice failed so miserably.

Most obviously Mr Dutton needs to announce he will cut back immigration immediately on taking office. And I mean he needs to say he’ll cut it back big time.? This issue is a winner all on its own. The Libs started running the biggest immigration Ponzi scheme going (arguably the highest per capita immigration in the world) until Albanese came in and made it bigger. So say you won’t do it again and mean it. Politicians do this because they are in thrall to the Keynesian bureaucrats and ABC types. Look, GDP measures economic activity or more basically spending. If the government digs a hole and then fills it in, the money it spends counts towards GDP. And if myriad new people pour in then GDP almost certainly goes up.

But all the while Australia’s GDP growth per person has performed woefully.? We don’t outperform Japan which has no immigration at all. We’ve had a couple of per capita GDP recessions in the last decade or so. But the Keynesians don’t talk about that. Nor is there barely a whisper about Australia’s God-awful productivity numbers (in decline actually). Team Dutton needs to start calling out this mass immigration mindset, even in its own ranks, and prune the numbers back considerably. Again, this is a sure vote winner. Go big. Take the chance. And stop worrying what the ABC will say. Or any advisors you have who urged you to support the Voice. Listen to the Nike motto and ‘Just do it’.

Or take a glance up at Britain. The Conservatives up there have been in office over a dozen years. And yet no one can point to a single thing they have accomplished (Brexit aside, and that was over the screaming objections of near on half the party room) that is remotely conservative. Promises to significantly prune immigration and it’s gone up exponentially. Highest spending government since the War. Ditto taxes. Massive debt. Caved in on free speech and every cultural issue going. Their own voters are fleeing them. Deservedly. Put bluntly, in thirteen years the entire Tony Blair settlement is still in place though the Tories hate it and have attacked it all that time. So they will and should be slaughtered in the upcoming election this year. And it’s in part due to their unwillingness to fight for any conservative outcomes at all. ‘Just all a bit too hard, old boy.’

But that need not be Mr Dutton’s fate. Come out with a bold set of policies on immigration, the school curriculum, free speech, sanity on energy policies and the like. Oh, and copy Canada’s Tory opposition leader Pierre Poilievre who has also said he’ll cut the CBC’s budget (equivalent to our ABC) in half. His boldness in policy terms and in taking on the left-leaning media has him up 12 to 15 points in the polls. And trust me the Canadian political spectrum is noticeably to the left of ours. Poilievre is doing this against more entrenched left-leaning views than here. And did I mention that he’s now ahead in the polls among young people under 35? Not by trimming his sail and dancing the Textor two-step. By offering people a real alternative.

So as the most friendly academic to you in this entire country, Mr Dutton, please stop with the faint-hearted garbage. Start taking positions your core voters want. Be bold. Take some risks. (Personally, I’d start with immigration reform as a sure-fire vote winner.) Bravery is the single most important trait in conservative leaders in today’s democratic world. Do that and I think you’ll romp home in the next election.

Or you can copy the softly-softly cautious approach of the Libs at the state level and lose.

AUTHOR James Allan