How to overcome Year 3 Of An Unpredictable and Frantic Pandemic

How Leaders Can Help

Overcome The Challenges Of This Pandemic

This thing called leadership it is not a super human trait. It is demonstrated by normal people with their heart, mind and soul. They are possessed by a powerful purpose in life. They are absorbed by their will, commitment and relentless courage. Their openness to ideas, and the strength to take on risks inspires everyone. They fear mediocrity more than failure and are filled by their self determination. Like everyone, they are anxious and scared. But they are ready for the long fight with boldness. Comfortable with making mistakes and standing alone at the front line to face the challenges head on. They have a great deal of humanity, integrity and real world experience to back it all up. And the ability to create a vision of a future that's not in books or movies but of their own doing and those that join them. Where are they?

In 2022 the call for new leadership roles will be for those with the vision, courage and the willingness to fail. No amount of inspirational promises will work in this new world. You have to be able to track those human digital foot prints and capitalize on them and prove you bring traffic to a physical and cyber sales and service environment. Then you can build organizational trust and inspiration. Forget all the rhetoric about dystopian worlds and convoluted notions of what competitors are doing. Retailing has changed and it's not hard to see those with outdated thinking. If you are spending more than 5 minutes on what competitors are doing you are no longer focused on your brand. Its the human living breathing consumer that matters. It is still about the four P's of marketing. Don't let anyone fool you or distract you in 2022. Assume the status quo will persist with the virus and press on, light up the brand make it visible and reach, reach, reach for more customers. Build awareness, trust and loyalty. All other things are either BS or someone has something to sell. And yes stores matter they will never go away. There may be less stores with specific retailers but more competition will come.

To overcome this pandemic we need to see at least six months of no outbreaks. And the rest of the world on a path of being vaccinated. Consumers able to move around without masks or social distancing, and no further restrictions or public health risks. Of course this is a tall order. Therefore, we need to assume that things could remain as they are for a while longer, and simultaneously plan for that and for the big recovery. But we cannot be banking on it. Because experience and research has shown us that consumer behaviours have been changing, technology evolving and being further integrated. So when we resurface, and we will, it will be a different game. For further comments on a recovery see my post here.

We've been in a Consumer Divide for almost two years.

Here are some thoughts. Most of us are in one of three places with this pandemic. Group 1: we don't fear it. Group 2: Apprehensive of out breaks and catching the virus and Group 3: they have less choices, economically or work wise. Is it permanently dividing society? Politicians may argue that the middle class is healthier than ever. But not when you look at the real numbers and who is considered middle class. That discussion for another day.

Group 1: Those who have no fear of the virus and will do as they wish. If they also have the financial means the world is their oyster. That doesn't mean they don't get sick.

Group 2: Those apprehensive of the virus, will abstain or minimize most activities that require in person contact as much as they can. They likely have the financial means to play it safe and achieve their needs in other ways.

Group 3: No choice. Those with minimal financial means, whether they fear the pandemic or not because of their income levels. Live in a just in time world. Likely represent that 50-60% of consumers that live pay-check to pay-check in Canada and the USA. They can’t afford to pay for shipping, or wait for items to be delivered, and that’s why convenience stores will flourish!

What does this all mean? Once again pragmatists would be betting on more of the same for 2022. It's not about playing it safe, it is about leading smart. That also means being ready for things to change in a better way faster. Retailers need to figure out who they serve and how to reach more of them effectively. You also might be interested in The Business of Retail Podcast that I co-host, listen to the episode The Path To 2022

Work From Home And Its Continued Impact

No matter how you present this consumers are not likely very happy being cooped up from having a social life. However, there is something about working from home that is far more attractive than commuting. Nevertheless, the impact on central business districts has and likely will continue to be challenging. All businesses are waiting for that business class spender to return. But perhaps not as quickly as one might think. We do need to further evaluate what is happening to all business districts and what problems and opportunities this creates. One thing is for certain not everyone wants this to go back to the way it was. Read more here: Economist and CBC on a different view

2022 Predictions And Politics

The author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip Tetlock has said; that most predictions fail, and that most experts perform worse at predicting the future than “dart-throwing chimps.” That's harsh! So, how are seers of the future like politicians? Simple every year they come out and state what they got right or wrong. It's sort of a cleansing routine, they ask for forgiveness on what they missed by acting humble, and go right back at it again. Unfortunately, that's not good enough if you are in business and need to grow your revenue.

Analysts who forecast scenarios are different they are well read, stay on top of their subject matter, and draw on insightful information, lot's of data and research. They can argue in favour of all opposing positions. Their conclusions usable. Those who predict the future tend to be biased by both their own mental model and their personal views on how they believe the future should unfold. After all that's how they make a living. These apostle like practices do not guide corporate objectives and strategies. Most companies have their own innovation machines.

A true strategic forecaster looks at all possible multiple scenarios, even outliers, but once it becomes personally biased there is very little value in their analysis, you then leave scenario planning and enter the world of predictions.

Scott Fitzgerald wrote: “The?test of a first-rate intelligence?is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function. One should, for example, be able to see that things are hopeless yet be determined to make them otherwise.” I believe the world needs a little bit of that right now.

How Far Will We Take Artificial Intelligence?

The movie that comes to mind is the Matrix that dystopian world where people are living in a coma like state, experiencing a metaverse in their minds, all along acting as batteries to keep AI Robots operational. Now that is science fiction. However, the non-fiction is also coming into view. What if a judge in a courtroom is an AI unit and it applies the law according to the criminal code? Sounds far fetched? Well it's not. The Chinese government has developed an AI prosecutor South China Morning Post. It's not only China, even the Germans have been using AI for digital forensics. The point is that AI has many applications but we humans need to be wary of just the positive attributes that others talk about. Because these machines have far more capabilities being developed. Consider the potential for even marketing jobs being challenged in the future. For now it appears that AI and marketing can work together. Will that change? Read this for now it all appears that AI is still a resource. In any event if you are in Shanghai for a visit in the future, you may not want to take any chances.

Personal Log

The problem with pay and service jobs.

The biggest problem for most large and midsized organizations is that they lack strategic Human Resource training and development programs that are focused on fast tracking staff to higher levels of management and opportunities. It can be easily developed and executed. I have found that in organizations where this exists more people sign up for opportunities, and those that don't signup just because they like being in organizations where opportunities exist. Why? Because it means that people matter. In 25 years of leading retail chains globally let me tell you that if talent isn't your number one focus customers won't matter either.

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Upcoming Events

January 5th, 2022, I am being interviewed by Julian Roberts: “Helping Organizations Thrive” Live on LinkedIn. We are going to be talking about Authentic Leadership. Which just so happens to be a subject discussed in my book The Great Transition The Emergence of Unconventional Leadership. ?The Chapter is called “Reliability Quotient” and it speaks to four quadrants of leadership that define your ability and that of an organization to achieve continuous success.

Also in January and February three private presentations to organizations on The Next Generation of Retail.

For any information on speaking engagements you can reach me at [email protected]

About George:?I have held Senior executive positions as a Country General Manager and CEO in Fortune 500 Organizations. Board Director and Chair. I run a consulting firm called Inception Retail Group Inc. And preside as the Chair of a utility. Have written three books, and am invited to speak about retailing, consumers, governance and leadership. Most recent books are The New Bricks & Mortar - Future Proofing Retail. It is available on?Amazon?and The Great Transition The Emergence of Unconventional Leadership Amazon Choose the $21.82 price offer.

Thank you for reading the Business Brief.