How to overcome Thinking Errors, Flaws and Cognitive Biases?
Research and works of John Hammond, Ralph Keeney and Howard Raiffa

How to overcome Thinking Errors, Flaws and Cognitive Biases?

It’s not what we know that matters, but how we react to what we don’t know. In other words, "it's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters". - Epictetus

The way we think, as individuals and collectively, affects the decisions we make in ways that are far from obvious and rarely understood, hence causing problems. Let’s evaluate our vulnerability and find ways to counter.

The very common thinking errors flaws and cognitive biases

·???????The anchoring, where we give lopsided weight to the first set of information received

o??Solution: be sure about what’s happening and ensure that you have pertinent information

·???????The status quo, leads us towards maintaining the current situation despite better alternatives exist (often to save face)

o??Solution: be open, honest and courageous

·???????The sunk-cost, inclines us to perpetuate past mistakes as we’ve invested so much in this that we can’t change course

o??Solution: gone are bygones, worry about the present and future, let go of the past

·???????The confirming-evidence, means seeking information to support the current situation but ignoring the opposing information

o??Solution: avoid the trap, be practical

·???????The framing, happens when we incorrectly state a problem, and undermine the decision-making process

o??Solution: see through the issues for what they actually are

·???????The over-confidence makes us overestimate the accuracy of our predictions

o??Solution: be self-critical but not self-doubtful

·???????The prudence, clearly leads us to be over-cautious while judging uncertain factors

o??Solution: be realistic

·???????The recent-event pitfall goads us to give undue weight to recent dramatic events

o??Solution: be aware of the danger as no two incidents are often same

Alongside these thinking flaws, there are two more pitfalls of organizational culture:

??????Fragmentation – people disagree, either with peers or superiors

??????Groupthink – people suppress ideas and support the group

But how to overcome these flaws and pitfalls?

??????Be bold and don’t over-estimate consequences to discount your ability to make the right choice because of ‘loss aversion’. We often fear of loss more than gain.

??????Trust your instincts and emotions, recall yourself making good decisions having managed their implementation successfully in the past.

??????Avoid irrelevancies at all cost and be ready to question the information in hand and its context.

??????Try reframing the decision and view issues from new perspectives.

??????Never let the past hold back, regardless of consequences, always look for better alternatives.

??????Challenge the groupthink as people often are afraid to comment because of social pressure. Try to find out what people really think.

??????Limit the options, the more options we’ve, more the confusion and harder the decision-making. Ruthlessly cut through the options and choose the most promising.

That’s it, well done. Good luck thinking! And making choices!

Peter Charnock

Adept business professional with track-record of strategic establishment and expandsion of businesses in multiple technologies, with on-the ground experience in North America, EMEA and APAC markets.

2 年

Wise. Thank you for sharing.

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