How Ocean Alliances Monopolize Trade

Earlier in the week, we wrote about how the top 30 carriers together control over 95% of container trade. Yet, that is only a part of the story. There are also Ocean alliances that consolidate trade but of which we rarely talk about .

For years now, top carriers have joined forced to form strategic alliances that allow them to share vessels, and, by extension expand their operational coverage. For clients, this should translate into higher reliability and increased routes available. However, it does have the side effect of highly consolidating trade amongst a handful of players. In fact, the largest alliances today control 32.47% of all containers at sea.

Currently, three major alliances dominate the scene: the 2M Alliance between Maersk and MSC, the Ocean Alliance consisting of CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, and OOCL, and THE Alliance comprising Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming. Together, these alliances control a significant portion of global trade, with the 2M Alliance holding 8.26% of all TEUs, the Ocean Alliance 14.2%, and THE Alliance 10.01%.

However, the landscape of these pacts is set to change. Maersk and MSC have announced the dissolution of their 2M Alliance in 2025, with MSC opting to operate independently while Maersk forms a new alliance with Hapag-Lloyd, known as the Gemini Coalition. Interestingly, the Gemini Coalition is expected to have a higher combined TEU capacity than the current 2M Alliance, increasing the overall market share of alliances from 32.47% to 35.44%.

Yet what's most interesting is the disproportionate role MSC Despite MSC’s departure from alliances, its influence is expected to grow. MSC has been aggressively expanding its fleet, with significant new orders set to boost its capacity by 20%. This expansion will position MSC as a dominant independent player, potentially controlling 19.85% of the market.

All this suggests that, while the structure of ocean alliances may evolve, the trend towards consolidation and the strategic importance of some alliances in global trade will continue. The future of ocean shipping will likely see a mix of powerful independent carriers and dynamic alliances shaping the industry.

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