How much will Tom Cruise earn next year?
Thomas Cruise Mapother IV is one of the highest-grossing movie actors of all time, having starred in over forty movies that have commanded a cumulative global box office of more than $10 billion. With an estimated net worth of $570 million according to Gulf News, he probably doesn’t lose too many sleepless nights worrying about his earnings next year. But let’s see if we can make a projection based upon past performance – if for no other reason than to demonstrate you can prove anything with statistics.
Methodology #1: A line of best fit across his entire oeuvre
Cruise first appeared in a supporting role as the character Bully in the 1981 flick Endless Love, helmed by Martin Hewitt and Brooke Shields. Whilst not setting the box office alight, the movie earned a respectable $32 million globally, setting Cruise on his way to more high profile and challenging opportunities. Over the past four decades, nine of his pictures have earned $150 million or more (unadjusted gross) in the US alone. A line of best fit demonstrates the stead progress in Cruise’s box office appeal, and a simple extrapolation suggests this trend will continue indefinitely.
Conclusion: Cruise’s next few movies will earn up to $200-225 million.
Methodology #2: A line of best fit since 2012
“Aha”, say sophisticated modellers. “You have committed the rookie error of analysing the data over an irrelevant timeframe. What really matters for analytical purposes is the trend in recent years, so why not measure performance since (for example) Rock of Ages, released in 2012.” This gives a better indication of how Cruise’s fortune is faring with today’s audiences in modern multiplex cinema complexes, without the distribution of viewing habits two generations ago. This presents a very different conclusion, with the line of best fit accelerating dramatically, at a 45 degree plus incline.
Conclusion: Cruise’s next few movies will earn the GDP of a small eastern European country, and by 2030 he will be outgrossing the G7
Methodology #3: A line of best fit based on the past 12 months
“No way”, counter a third group of modellers, instinctively sceptical of their publicity-seeking peers. “You wouldn’t allow a CEO or a premier league footballer to bask in the glories of eight years ago, and the same standard should apply to movie stars. The question that matters is how the current year compares with the prior year; that’s how you gain the best insight into what’s around the corner.” Using this approach, the trend line takes a dramatic turn in the opposite direction, at an angle that would unnerve an Olympic skier.
Conclusion: Cruise will be box office poison; conceivably bankrupted and destitute. There’ll be no Mission Impossible 7 to save the day.
So what do we learn from these three scenarios? Simply that it’s unwise to take a consultant’s data chart at face value. Interrogate not only the assumptions but whether there’s been any bias in the range of modelling decisions, in particular the timeline that’s been selected for scrutiny, and check the impact of choosing different variables. If the outcome is starkly different, it would be Risky Business to proceed with Eyes Wide Shut, blindly deferential to The Firm that created the initial document, which is respected as the definitive guide to The Edge of Tomorrow. Instead, view it as a Minority Report, tell your colleagues you’ll Never Go Back, brace yourself for the Fallout, and turn to A Few Good Men to reassess your options. That’s the sure-fire way to avoid Collateral; to make All The Right Moves.
Phew!