How much drama does GGG have left in him?

Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Hollywood, Florida, Friday, December 18th, 2020: Gennadiy Golovkin 40(35)-1-1 vs. Kamil Szeremeta 21(5)-0, boxing 12 rounds for Golovkin's IBF middleweight title.

It has been over fourteen months since GGG has been in the ring, which is the longest break in his career. Last time it was in New York’s Madison Square Garden on October 5, 2019. Gennady Golovkin had his hands full for 12 rounds with Sergiy Derevyanchenko.

He won a unanimous decision and regained the IBF World Middleweight title, but the action in the ring was much closer than the estimations of the three judges. A draw or a split-decision for either boxer would have been fair. Jab scored it 114:113 for “The Technician”.

When a legend gets tarnished, when a superstar boxer’s ring performance levels out, and worst of all when he loses a bout, that is when boxing fans and “experts” usually lose interest and move on to a new hero. Let us track GGG’s pathway. The Olympic Silver medalist from Kazakhstan with a final 345-5 amateur record went professional in 2006. Middleweight. Gennadiy Golovkin started his career Germany with 8 stoppages in row. By 2011 he had his 1st world title, and he was moving to the USA.

GGG’s next KO streak kept growing as he wiped the canvas with all his opponents and built a reputation as a beast in the ring. His stalking style and take no prisoners approach gained him a massive fan base.

By 2017 Golovkin had collected the middleweight titles and built his KO streak up to 23 in a row with 91% stoppages. He was voted the #1 P4P professional boxer in the world. His career was at its peak and he was set to fight Daniel Jacobs in Madison Square Garden.

GGG was on the mountaintop. However, staying the champion has always been harder than becoming one. Add his superstar status into the mix and the expectations were sky high. Therefore, even though the 35yo Golovkin had beaten the bigger man and better boxer, the unanimous decision win over Jacobs hurt his standing among many fans.

A September 2017 draw versus Canelo and a loss in their rematch one year later proved that GGG is human. Later the Derevyanchenko battle was too close to ignore. GGG's problem was not just his old style or his trainer, it was his old body.

And now Golovkin is over 38yo and the sunset of his career has begun. Think about that 12-round war in the “Mecca of Boxing” last year, plus the grueling 12 rounds with Daniel Jacobs and the 24 rounds he has fought with Saul Canelo Alvarez, over the past three years GGG has paid the price. The substance of the human body can only deliver so much, for so long.

Yes, Gennadiy Golovkin is a champion past his peak, a fading fighter that no longer evokes such fear in his opponents, but GGG is not washed up. He has a couple more bouts in him. Even an 80%-GGG is better than most middleweight boxers today, hence his Ring#1 ranking at 160lbs/72.6kg.

Tonight’s challenger is Ring#6 middleweight Kamil Szeremeta. The 31yo from Bialystok, Poland was an amateur standout and has an undefeated record over his eight-year professional boxing career.

A very competitive technical boxer, Szeremeta has been successful on the Polish and European level, where he has fought nearly all his bouts. However, he has never really been tested, having always fought boxers ranked very far below him.

The average BoxRec ranking of Szeremeta’s last five opponents is #375, which is 350 steps behind his #23 BoxRec rank. That means that he has not had the opportunity to learn and grow from better fighters.

Maybe Kamil Szeremeta is ready to step up, but this GGG matchup is a huge leap. On paper and in the videos of his fights Jab has seen nothing that would point to a victory for the Polish challenger.

But boxing occasionally delivers very surprising outcomes. An important factor for Szeremeta’s chances of success is his trainer. Fiodor ?apin is one of Poland’s leading boxing coaches and has developed some of Poland’s best boxers. These include former cruiser belt-holders Kyzrsztof G?owacki and Kyzrsztof W?odarczyk, among others.

Can anyone realistically help Szeremeta? He will have to find a way to avoid GGG’s forward pressure and punching power. Maybe he can stick and run, work the body and try to wear GGG down by the middle rounds. Szeremeta’s lack of power is his biggest weakness. How can he keep Golovkin off him if he cannot rock him with a punch?

And even if he can outlast and outbox the older man, would that be enough to sway the judges away from the boxing hero and IBF middleweight titlist from Kazakhstan? But there is a silver lining Szeremeta. He can increase his popularity and market value by just boxing nicely, winning a few rounds, and going the distance with GGG.

GGG’s needs a knockout to help secure a new rematch with his arch-rival Canelo in 2021. If Golovkin can regenerate his traditional offensive heat, hurt Szeremeta early to the body, and smother the challenger with punches in the corner, may a referee stoppage could occur in middle rounds.

Jab Hook's prediction: GGG works patiently and clearly dominates Kamil Szeremeta. Taking most of the rounds, Golovkin struggles to close the show as his rival goes into survival mode in the latter half of the bout. GGG wins by unanimous decision over Szeremeta.

Please check back for Jab Hook's Epilogue to the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, Hollywood, Florida, Friday, December 18th, 2020.

“Jab Hook” is an independent boxing analyst and writer, a commentator on DAZN.de, and a licensed referee and judge in amateur boxing. Born in Brooklyn and living in Munich, “The Sweet Science” is his passion. 2019 Photo of Jack Culcay Keth and Jab in Munich.