How migration could affect the U.S. election
CS Global Partners - Government Citizenship Solutions?
Leading Government Advisory in Citizenship by Investment & Residency
Discover how migration trends could reshape the landscape of the U.S. election.
Today’s presidential election in the United States is making waves across the world, as the world’s most powerful country decides its future. With contentious rhetoric and massive implications for foreign policy, economic policy and social policy, the election has already garnered headlines and a close worldwide following.?
The CS Global Partners World Citizenship Report (WCR) considers the U.S. election in the context of elections across the globe, providing context for the global currents affecting today’s vote. In particular, the WCR identifies migration as a key global issue likely to affect voting patterns.??
Drawing upon WCR analysis, this article considers migration’s impact, and how it might influence the election outcome. It does so from a comparative, generational and economic perspective.?
Global context of migration
2024 has seen more elections than any other year in history, and by the end of 2024, half of the world’s population will have had the chance to participate in an election.?
As the WCR notes in its article, ‘The Weight of Responsibility,’ migration patterns are key motivators for individuals voting across the globe.??
‘Migration policy has recently featured in the election rhetoric of countries such as the United Kingdom (UK), European Union (UN), United States (US) and India,’ the article noted.?
With wars driving migration and creating refugees in Europe and the Middle East, and enduring instability in some parts of Latin America (especially after the Venezuelan election), migration has become a central issue in global electoral conversations.?
Original data from the WCR survey indicated that the primary motivators for high-net-worth individuals seeking to obtain an alternative citizenship were Quality of Life and Safety and Security.?
In the U.S., these issues will be acutely affected by today’s election, as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have different policies which will affect safety and living standards. These policies are largely based off their political parties (Democrat and Republican, respectively).?
Immigration policy is strongly linked to security policy, especially in the U.S.; the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services agency within the Department of Homeland Security is responsible for determining immigration policy.?
Generally, Harris’s policies line up more neatly with centre-left blocs across the globe, and she is more supportive of immigration than Trump. But, like other centre-left parties such as the UK Labour Party, her party is keen to appear relatively tough on immigration to appeal to ‘swing voters,’ or undecided voters.??
Trump’s Republican Party have been strongly against most immigration, and Trump is known for his promise to ‘build a wall’ dividing the U.S. from the Mexican border. Democrats oppose this policy.??
A new generation of voters are passionate about migration
One potentially transformative element influencing the election is the advent of millions of new voters. Generation Z, which includes individuals born between 1997 to 2012, contains many individuals who have not yet been able to vote in an election — until now.??
The WCR’s article, ‘The New Generation: Youth Electoral Engagement and Social Media’ analyses this generation and its potential impact on the election.??
It notes Gen Z’s impact on the previous presidential election, with ‘a 289 per cent increase in Gen Z participation by raw vote total.’ The article suggests that this effect will be present in the 2024 election, too, as younger Gen Z’ers are able to vote for the first time in 2024.??
These young voters are utilising new social media channels, including TikTok, to reach fellow voters. Gen Z voters are particularly interested in driving migration discourse.?
Gen Z is also adept at using X, formerly known as Twitter, to drive political engagement and mobilise voters.??
领英推荐
A politically diverse generation, Gen Z’ers range from strongly pro-immigrant individuals and immigrants themselves to individuals strongly skeptical of immigration. Both camps are passionate about having their views heard and are keen to voice their views on social media.?
The WCR cites a study done by PhD students at the University of California, Los Angeles, which found that Gen Z’s use of social media has been effective in cementing their place as new leaders of political activism and mobilisation.??
‘The new tools that young voters have at their disposal, particularly social media, allow them to lead political conversations,’ the article said.?
Migration’s impact on the economy and business
Businesses are taking note of the election’s potential impact on migration, as new migration policies could affect business and economic outcomes.??
WCR data ranked the U.S. as the fourteenth best country for Economic Opportunity. With the world’s largest GDP, the U.S. plays host to more immigrants than any other country, and immigrants make up nearly a fifth of the American labour force.??
The fervour of younger generations towards this issue electorally has led organisations to pay attention.?
The WCR notes that ‘organisations are taking note of youth activism and working to include young people in political, economic and financial decisions,’ particularly as Gen Z will make up 27% of the world’s workforce in 2025.??
In its ‘Spotlight on the US Elections: Migration and Millennial Priorities’ article, the WCR notes that the generation prior to Gen Z, Millennials, are also passionate about issues pertaining to migration.??
A generation of pro-immigration advocates
But whereas Gen Z has been more divided, with strong support found for both pro- and anti-immigration policies, Millennials tend to be overwhelmingly supportive of pro-immigration policies.?
The WCR explains, ‘Unlike some previous generations, they [Millennials] embrace a more open and welcoming approach towards immigrants, viewing them as valuable contributors to the nation’s cultural and economic fabric.’?
Millennials played a key role in backing progressive candidates in the political primary elections in 2020, and pressured President Joe Biden to be more progressive in his immigration stance before he stepped down as President.?
The article adds that Millennials voice ‘support for policies promoting a more inclusive immigration system and the advocacy for pathways to citizenship for undocumented individuals.’?
This attitude has economic implications, considering that Millennials will be the wealthiest generation in history, ‘due to a massive transfer of wealth and assets from the Silent Generation (born between 1928 and 1945) to Millennials.’??
That is in addition to their already strong influence on the workplace, making up 35% of the U.S. workforce.??
What we can expect from the 2024 election
Providing a prediction for the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election is beyond the scope of this article, but we can predict that migration will play upon the minds of the U.S. voter.??
From migration’s influence upon the economy, to its influence on the youngest generations, to the part immigration plays across the globe, it is clear that migration will continue to drive political debates and political outcomes.??
The CS Global Partners WCR offers a deep analysis of citizenship, including citizenship and residency advisory, for globally-minded Americans.?