How Many Ukrainian Refugees will the West see?

It is only the beginning. Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine will be longer than expected and brutal. As of today, two weeks into the war, there are estimated to be 1.5 million refugees who have escaped to neighboring NATO countries: Poland, Hungary, Romania, and the non-NATO country of Moldova.?

We have seen the images of the elderly navigating craters and twisted steel to get to safety. We have seen mothers and children crammed into train cars, teary eyed and red-faced. We have watched in horror as a mother and two children tried escape the hell of war, only to be killed by a mortar shell. A young boy in tears trekked his way to the border alone. Men kissed their wives and children goodbye at the Polish border and walk away to defend their native soil.?

How many refugees will there be??

If we listen to history, we may be able to paint a clearer picture of the future. During World War II, the Battle for France began on May 10, 1940. The Nazi’s poured through Belgium and over the French border. The German army and the Luftwaffe pushed the allies back to Dunkirk. The defense of France had collapsed. In victory, Hitler toured occupied Paris on June 23, 1940. The official surrender by the French government was signed on June 24, 1940, in Compiegne, France at the same site of Germany’s surrender in World War I. France was defeated in six weeks.

Will Ukraine surrender in six weeks? The circumstances are different, but it is possible.?The Russians may take the cities, but NATO armed Ukrainian military and Partisans will spring up to inflict damage on the occupying Russians. The war will groan on and scar the landscape with blood and death.

As the Russians continue with the bombing, missile attacks and artillery shells, people will become more desperate to escape the violence. Food and medicine will stop being delivered. People will become hungry. The sick will die without their medication. Left with little choice, the Ukrainian people will leave their beloved homes. The Ukrainian refugees will keep coming, and coming, and coming. Putin will not back down.

In 1940, France had a population of 41 million. After the Nazis occupied France, 6-8 million French refugees roamed France, unconquered Europe, North Africa, U.K. and further afield.?

In 2022, Ukraine has a population of 44 million, similar to France’s population in World War II. If history is a good teacher, I believe the West can expect 8 million Ukrainian refugees.?

The West needs to prepare for the 8 million souls looking for?safety, warmth and shelter.?It is our moral duty.

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