How many GHG emissions in China are due to the exports?

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This article analyzes China's GHG, and pollutant emissions, in the international context. The data shown is the most up-to-date and I intend to update the article in the presence of new data. To write this article I consulted many scientific articles from recent years, all of which have been cited. The date of the last update will be shown at the bottom of the page.

INDEX

Abstract

1. Historical overview of greenhouse gas emissions in the international context

2. Coal consumption and coal power stations in China

2.1 Uncertainties over China's coal data

2.2 China's construction of new coal-fired power plants abroad

3. Databases of greenhouse gas emissions

4. GHG emissions in China and its exports

5. Pollutant emissions in China

6. Conclusion

References

Abstract

In this article, you will find an overview of GHG and polluting emissions in China also in the international context, and above all it will try to answer this question: how much of China's total greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is due to its foreign trade balance, then to exports? To quantify the share of greenhouse gas emissions due to exports, a search was carried out on the scientific literature. However, it is not possible to answer this question precisely, both because it is not possible to perfectly separate the emissions due to the production of goods intended for internal consumption and export within the same industrial district, for example, and because there are secrets industrial and therefore there are no accurate official data from companies. However, it is possible to try to make a realistic estimate based on the value-added trade and Multi Region Input-Output Analysis, for example, as illustrated in recent scientific publications.

1. Historical overview of greenhouse gas emissions in the international context

China is currently the largest producer of greenhouse gases, with a growing trend. Similar to India and other highly populous developing countries like Indonesia and Pakistan; however, no country has a growth in greenhouse gases, in absolute terms, comparable to that of China. In contrast, the United States and Europe (EU-27) have lower emissions and the trend has been decreasing, or stagnant, for decades.

Carbon dioxide emissions per capita are higher in the USA but China has shown an increasing trend since the 1950s while in the USA they have been decreasing from their peaks in the 1970s and steadily decreasing since the early 2000s. Furthermore, since 2013 China has surpassed the European Union in CO2 per capita emissions. Currently (2022), CO2 per capita emissions amount to 14.9 tonnes for the USA, 8.0 for China and 6.2 for the EU. Indonesia, India and Pakistan have per capita emissions of 2.6, 2.0 and 0.8 tonnes respectively. If at the end of the 1990s the USA had per capita CO2 emissions tens of times higher than those of China, currently (2022) emissions in China are 54% of those in America (figure below).

Globally, the greenhouse gas emissions shown in the graph above are caused largely by the use of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and natural gas, and also to a small extent by the use of waste and biomass (IEA); also from industrial activities such as cement, flaring and others (figure below).

The IEA (International Energy Agency) data shows the breakdown by fossil fuel type and is slightly lower than that of Our World in Data and the (annual) time series starts from 1971.

The IEA states that:

In 2021, the global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion rebounded by nearly 6%, returning close to the levels preceding the Covid-19 pandemic. Fossil fuels continued to represent 80% of the total energy supply (TES) globally, with oil comprising nearly 30%, followed by coal (27%) and natural gas (24%). Global emissions from fuel combustion were dominated by coal (44%), followed by oil (32%) and natural gas (22%). China and the United States together were responsible for 45% of the global fuel combustion emissions, followed by European Union, India, the Russian Federation and Japan. Explore the evolution of GHG emissions from fuel combustion across a range of countries in our interactive chart above. Compare the shares of different products in the total energy supply and their respective contributions to fuel combustion emissions in the interactive chart below.

Furthermore, the IEA for 2023 summarily explains that (CO2 Emissions in 2023 - Executive Summary):

• Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023, increasing 410 million tonnes (Mt) to reach a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes (Gt). This compares with an increase of 490 Mt in 2022 (1.3%). Emissions from coal accounted for more than 65% of the increase in 2023;
• Emissions in China grew around 565 Mt in 2023, by far the largest increase globally and a continuation of China’s emissions-intensive economic growth in the post-pandemic period. However, China continued to dominate global clean energy additions. Cyclical effects, notably a historically bad hydro year, contributed about one-third of its emissions growth in 2023. Per capita emissions in China are now 15% higher than in advanced economies;
• In India, strong GDP growth drove up emissions by around 190 Mt. But a weak monsoon increased demand for electricity and cut hydro production, contributing around one-quarter of the increase in its total emissions in 2023. Per capita emissions in India remain far below the world average.

Thus, most of the greenhouse gas emissions in China are due to the use of coal, widely used in the electricity sector and also in the industrial steel sector (see figure below).

In contrast, more developed countries produce the majority of GHG emissions from oil use, as illustrated for the U.S. and Europe (EU-27) in the below figure. In the USA, the use of natural gas has increased in recent years at the expense of coal. However, the use of coal is by no means negligible in the USA and EU-27.

In other words, the trends vary significantly by region. Overall patterns across Europe and North America are similar: early industrialization began through solid fuel consumption, however, through time this energy mix has diversified. Today, CO2 emissions are more evenly distributed between coal, oil and gas. In contrast, Latin America and the Caribbean’s emissions have historically been and remain a product of liquid fuel-even in the early stages of development coal consumption was small. Asia’s energy remains dominant in solid fuel consumption and has notably higher cement contributions relative to other regions. Africa also has more notable emissions from cement and flaring; however, its key sources of emissions are a diverse mix of solid, liquid, and gas (Our World in Data).

The U.S. Department of State that:

Despite claims of international environmental leadership, China’s energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are rising. It has been the world’s largest annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter since 2006. China’s total energy-related emissions are twice that of the United States and nearly one third of all emissions globally. Beijing’s energy-related emissions increased more than 80% between 2005-2019 , while U.S. energy-related emissions have decreased by more than 15 percent. In 2019 alone, China’s energy-related CO2 emissions increased more than 3%, while the United States’ decreased by 2%. Beijing claims “developing-country” status to avoid shouldering more responsibility for reducing GHG emissions–though its per capita CO2 emissions have already reached the level of many high-income countries. China’s increasing emissions counteract the progress of many other countries around the world to reduce global emissions.

Finally, overall nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, important greenhouse gas, are growing for China and for all the most populous developing countries, such as India, Indonesia and Pakistan. In China, there has been a decline in this important greenhouse gas since 2016-2017.

Considering the ratio of CO2 emissions in kg to GDP in USD (purchasing power parity - PPP), China showed a consistent decline in the 1990s and then reduced in the following decades. However, China currently (2020) maintains this ratio higher than both developed countries such as the US and EU, obviously, and other large developing countries such as India, Indonesia and Pakistan. In 2020, China had a ratio of 0.5 kgCO2/USDofGDP while the US and EU had 0.2 and 0.1 kgCO2/USDofGDP respectively, while India, Indonesia and Pakistan all three had a ratio of 0.2 kgCO2/USDofGDP (figure below).

2. Coal consumption and coal power stations in China

Global coal consumption is increasing and has reached an all-time high of almost 8.5 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2022. In 2022, China consumed 50.5% of the coal consumed worldwide. The IEA states that:

In 2022, coal demand reached a new record high of 8.415 Gt, increasing by 4%. The increase was mainly backed by growth in countries that rely heavily on coal, such as China and India. Furthermore, extraordinarily high gas prices and generally weaker nuclear power and hydropower production drove growth in demand for coal to generate power. Coal demand for power generation rose by 4% to 5.687 Gt. Coal use for non-power purposes rose by 3.7% to 2.728 Gt. Accounting for more than half of global coal demand, China is by far the world’s largest coal consumer. In 2022, the country’s overall coal demand rose by 4.6% to a total of 4.520 Gt, with coal taking a share of more than 60% in power generation. India, the world’s second-largest coal consumer comprising about 14% of global coal demand, recorded an increase of 9%, totalling 1.162 Gt.

Coal consumption in China has increased in recent decades, going from 1.297 billion tons in 2000 to 4,250 billion tons in 2022. The largest increase occurred until 2013 and then showed a smaller increase (figure below). However, the IEA's forecast for China for 2023 turned out to be wrong (downward), as did the forecast of 4.248 billion tonnes of coal consumed. In fact the IEA states that:

In absolute terms, coal demand in 2023 is estimated to have increased most strongly in China (up?220?Mt, or 4.9%), followed by India (up?98?Mt, or?8%) and Indonesia (up?23?Mt, or?11%).

therefore the IEA itself estimates coal consumption in China in 2023 at 4.470 billion tonnes, approximately 222 million tonnes more than forecast (4.248 billion tonnes).

In primary energy consumption, coal prevails with a consumption of 24,559.49 TWh out of a total of 44,275.91 TWh; in other words, coal represents 51% of total primary energy consumption in China, with a growing trend.

As with primary energy consumption, electricity also depends largely on coal. Electricity production from coal-fired plants has been steadily increasing since the 1980s. In 2023, 5,741.51 TWh were produced from coal out of a total of 9,459.59 TWh of electricity produced in China. The share of electricity produced by coal in China in 2023 is 60.7% (figure below).

According to the latest IEA data (2018), most coal consumption is used in power plants, however a significant share is used not to produce electricity (about 44.2%) but for coking coal (24.4%), steam coal (non-power) with 19% and other (0.8%).

Coal consumption in mass (in million tons) by sector, in detail in figure below.

Also the IEA database shows that coal is still one of the most widely-used fuels for power generation because of its availability and low cost (figure below).

Apart from power generation, coal is also used directly in high-heat industrial processes, notably steelmaking, and in some countries is used to heat homes and buildings (figure below). In non-energy applications, coal can be used to produce the industrial chemicals needed to make plastics and fertilizers (IEA, 2024).

Obviously, installed coal-fired power is increasing, as stated by the IEA:

Coal-fired power generation in China grew by around 2% compared to 2021. China continues to add new coal-fired power plants to the grid, with 11 GW added in 2022, driven by energy security concerns, local economic interests, and tendency to pair dispatchable power sources with variable renewable sources.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) confirms that China is accelerating the additions of new coal power capacity during the current five-year plan period (2021–25) compared to either of the preceding two five-year plan periods. In summary, CREA states that:

Coal power continues to expand in China, despite the government’s pledges and goals. In the first half of 2023, construction was started on 37 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity, 52 GW was permitted, while 41 GW of new projects were announced and 8 GW of previously shelved projects were revived. Of the permitted projects, 10 GW of capacity has already moved to construction. Permitting continued apace in the second quarter and in some provinces, newly permitted power plants are moving rapidly into construction, while in others, developers might be securing permits “just in case” and not hurrying to break ground. Of plants permitted in 2022, about half (52 GW) had started construction by summer 2023.

The massive increase in new coal-fired capacity in China is shown in the graph below.

There are a total of 3,092 operating coal-fired power plant units, 946 coal power plants, in China. In total, these coal power plants has a capacity of 955.72 GW. As of January 2023, the province of Shandong, which lies to the south of Beijing, houses the highest number of coal power plants, at over 400 units. Beijing itself, meanwhile, does not have a single operational coal power plant within its municipality. The coal producing provinces were also home to China’s heavy industry. Most coal plants were located in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi, which were also home to the largest coal mines in the country. For logistical reasons, much of China’s heavy industry, such as steel production, was often located in the same provinces. Although the manufacturing and power industries were evolving, transforming China’s rust belt, coal still played an important role in the economy and the new coal power plants were still being built. Currently, Datang Tuoketue is the largest operational coal power plant in China. The power station is located in Inner Mongolia, and at 6.7 GW, is also the largest coal power plant in the world.

The most recent data from the Global Energy Monitor estimates a capacity of 1,147.2 GW of coal-fired power plants for 2024, steadily growing since 2005. Furthermore, the most recent plants, aged less than or equal to 9 years, are mostly Ultra-Supercritical (60.8%) or Supercritical (28.7%) technology (see (see the two figures below).

In 2024, 173.5 GW of coal-fired power are under construction while 114.9 GW have been approved; to this must be added 68.9 GW pre-permitted and 63.4 GW announced. Also in 2024, 124.4 GW have been retired, 61.1 GW have been shelved and 601 GW have been cancelled (figures below).

From the perspectives of per unit capacity and technical parameters, the coal-fired power generation fleet has been continuously optimized. Figure below illustrates the transformation of the technological structure in 2005 and 2018 (300 MW represents the 300 MW-level unit, 600 MW represents the 600 MW-level unit, and 1000 MW represents the 1000 MW-level unit).

Since the 12th Five-Year Plan, the newly installed capacity of coal-fired power was dominated by large-scale units with higher main steam parameters, as shown in 2 figures below. Since 2006, more than half of the newly installed capacity were large-scale units of the 600 MW class or 1,000 MW class, while the increase of the 300 MW class or below were the units of cogeneration of heating and power. Compared with the annual capacity additions before 2005, an increasing proportion has adopted super-critical or ultra-super-critical power generation technologies since 2006 due to the stricter national technical threshold, while most of the subcritical units were cogeneration for heating and power of the 300 MW class.

In the figure below it can see over the years the most advanced power increase currently available for coal power plants: Ultra-critical and Supercritical technology.

The utilization hour of coal-fired power units (histogram) rose to 4,216 hours in 2020 from the lowest 4,165 hours in 2016, mainly being attributed to the picking-up electric demand and alleviated capacity addition (figure below). Two reasons together led to a decline in coal-fired power hours. The coal power early warning policy was released in the later period, and the coal power hours began to stabilize in 2018. Since 2016, the Chinese government has been restraining coal-fired power development amid severe nationwide overcapacity (Policy Effect on Clean Coal-Fired Power Development in China by Jianyun Zhang et alii, January 2022).

As the coal-fired power development has been progressing further, the overall operational performance is being improved stably in terms of the power generation efficiency and air pollutant emissions. It shows (figure below) that the coal consumption rate of coal power generation declined around 16% from 367 gce/kWh (grams coal equivalent per kWh) in 2006 to 305.5 gce/kWh in 2020. This result will be helping the technological advancement and national energy conservation policy.

Currently, Pingshan Phase II, a cutting-edge 1.35 GW ultrasupercritical coal-fired unit, achieves a remarkable net efficiency of 49.37% making it the world’s most efficient coal-fired power plant. The state-of-the-art plant, which commenced operations in April 2022, utilizes mature 600C materials and equipment, showcasing the transformative potential of innovation in the realm of coal power (by Sonal Patel on powermag).

2.1 Uncertainties over China's coal data

However, as The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies writes, there are considerable uncertainties with respect to Chinese coal data:

• Chinese government agencies have revised their estimates of domestic coal production and consumption on several occasions. Some of these revisions have been substantial. Official estimates of coal production in 2000 are now 39% higher than the original number released by the National Bureau of Statistics. In 2015, official estimates of Chinese coal consumption for the prior decade were revised upward by 17%;
• Aggregate data from provincial authorities generally exceed national figures from the central government, sometimes by as much as 20%. Reasons may include double-counting of coal traded among provinces and inflated figures from provincial officials (whose promotion often depends on hitting GDP targets that have historically been correlated with coal consumption);
• Some Chinese coal consumption statistics are based on tonnage while others are based on thermal content. Trends with respect to each can vary, causing confusion. Estimates of the thermal content of Chinese coal sometimes differ, which can compound the confusion.

2.2 China's construction of new coal-fired power plants abroad

In September 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) that China would halt the building of new coal fired power plants abroad whilst increasing support for green and low-carbon energy infrastructure in developing countries. However, according to CREA’s third annual review of China’s overseas coal ban, with People of Asia for Climate Solutions (PACS), the amount of coal capacity that was cancelled in 2024 has fallen significantly to 5.6 gigawatts (GW), from the 15.9 GW between 2022 and 2023.

In addition to cancellations of China’s overseas projects slowing down, since the publication of CREA’s 2023 report, 7.9 GW of China-backed coal plant capacity has become operational, bringing the total operational capacity to 26.2 GW, up from 18.3 GW in 2023 and 9.2 GW in 2022. The findings indicate that whilst China has shown progress, the country still faces significant challenges in meeting its pledge.

Over the three years following the pledge, a total of 42.8 GW of projects have been cancelled, resulting in a total avoided 4.5 billion tonnes of cumulative lifetime carbon emissions. Yet, 52 power plants remain in the permitted, pre-permit, and construction phases, representing a total additional capacity of 49.5 GW.

The last year (2023) has seen an additional 3.4 GW from previously unannounced overseas power projects advanced directly into the construction phase and 4.9 GW into the pre-permit phase. At least three of these proposed projects are for coal power generation, 1.5 GW in Kyrgyzstan, Zambia and Zimbabwe, in direct violation of the 2021 pledge. Additionally, 700 MW of China-backed coal capacity that had been shelved in the past has been pushed forward or revived in the last year (figure below).

3. Databases of greenhouse gas emissions

The database with historical data on national contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide for all countries of the World (about 200), macro-regions (such as the European Union, North America and Asia) and for global, is a dataset given by Jones et alii (2023). This dataset is a csv format file (about 90 MB) with annual data. The data contained starts from the mid-18th century, for some countries, and until 2021 (most updated data). This dataset is used by Our World in Data to develop plots. In short, the data describes:

• the global warming response to national emissions?CO2, CH4 and N2O from fossil and land use sources during 1851-2021;
• National CO2?emissions data are collated from the Global Carbon Project (Andrew and Peters, 2022; Friedlingstein et alii, 2022);
• National CH4?and N2O emissions data are collated from PRIMAP-hist (HISTTP) (Gütschow et alii, 2022).
• time series of cumulative CO2-equivalent?emissions?for each country,?gas, and emissions source (fossil or land use). Emissions of CH4?and N2O emissions are related to cumulative CO2-equivalent?emissions using the Global Warming Potential (GWP) approach, with?best-estimates of the coefficients taken from the?IPCC AR6 (Forster et alii, 2021).
• Warming in response?to?cumulative CO2-equivalent?emissions is estimated using the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) approach, with?best-estimate value of TCRE?taken from the?IPCC AR6 (Forster et alii, 2021, Canadell et alii, 2021). 'Warming' is specifically the change in?global mean surface temperature (GMST).
• The data files provide emissions, cumulative emissions and the GMST response by country, gas (CO2, CH4, N2O or GHG total) and source (fossil emissions, land use emissions or the total).

However, four clarifications on the dataset are necessary, as reported in study of Jones et alii (2023):

• the contributions to warming depend on the gases and aerosols considered in the analysis. Different anthropogenic activities emit various gases and aerosols at ranging intensities (e.g. industrial versus agricultural). Each country has a unique environmental and socioeconomic situation causing differences in the prevalence of source activities and influencing emission rates of associated gases and aerosols. Consequently, a country’s contribution to warming increases if a gas or aerosol associated with one of its prevalent activities is considered in the assessment. For example, the inclusion of CH4 and N2O enhances the contribution to warming of countries with intensive or extensive agriculture. Here, it's considered only CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in this assessment of national contributions to warming, thus excluding national contributions to warming through emissions of other radiatively active species. The IPCC AR6 finds that anthropogenic emissions of black carbon aerosols, halogenated gases (CFC?+?HCFC?+?HFC) and volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide (NMVOC?+?CO) cause a warming at the global scale comparable to that of N2O. Inclusion of these species thus has potential to influence national contributions to warming to a similar degree as the inclusion of N2O. Note that N2O-related warming contributes around 7% of the warming related to all three GHGs in this analysis on average across individual countries (standard deviation 5%). In addition, the cooling effect of sulphate aerosols and other reflective aerosol species is not included here, yet it noted that the cooling effect of aerosols is comparable in magnitude to the warming effect of CH4 at the global scale. Consequently, changes in national contributions to warming would occur if other gases and aerosols were to be included in this analysis. For example, including aerosols has been estimated to reduce China’s contribution to warming to 8%, as compared with 11% in a case including only well-mixed GHGs;
• the contributions to warming depend on the time period under consideration. For example, the inclusion or exclusion of pre-industrial LULUCF (land use, land use change and forestry) CO2 emissions has a small influence on the contribution made by countries whose key period of land use change preceded the industrial period (up to a few percentage points in European countries and China). Here, it's consulted multi-gas emissions datasets that collectively include the years 1851–2021, and it's reported on contributions to climate change since 1850 (note that the CH4 emissions data for years 1830–1849 are also required to calculate cumulative CO2-equivalent emissions from 1850 onwards, see Methods). However, it's noted that earlier or later reference years would provide a different perspective on national contributions to emissions. For example, selecting a reference year of 1900 would reduce cumulative global CO2 emissions by 40 Pg CO2 and lessen the related warming by 0.02?°C (?2.3%). For national contributions, the corresponding effect of varying the reference year on warming would depend on the fraction of cumulative national emissions that occurred before or after the reference year for any particular country. A change in reference year within 1850–1900 has a considerably smaller impact on the GMST responses to global or national CH4 emissions due to lesser dependence of CH4-related warming on cumulative emissions than in the case of CO2 or N2O;
• the contributions to warming depend on population. It doesn't included per capita emissions or per capita contributions to warming in this dataset. Nonetheless, it's noted that previous work has highlighted per capita expressions of emissions or warming as a means of accounting for differences in the intensity of emissions or warming impact per country, providing further perspective on the national accountability for climate change;
• the contributions to warming depend on international trade. Some countries (e.g. China and India, and Brazil) emit CO2 in the process of producing goods or services for export (in net terms), while other countries/regions (e.g. the EU-27 and the USA) are net importers and consume goods or services which require emissions in external territories. In Here, this dataset doesn't accounted for national emissions embodied in goods or services traded between countries (i.e. the emissions estimates used here include territorial emissions only rather than consumption-based emissions). Estimates of consumption-based emissions are available for fossil CO2 and for LULUCF CO2, CH4 and N2O and could be used to produce consumption-based national warming contributions, however these records begin only in the 1960s–1970s.

4. GHG emissions in China and its exports

Currently (2022) China emits 11.4 billion tonnes of CO2 with a rapidly growing trend. Its emissions represent almost a third of global emissions. In 2022, 37.15 billion tons of CO2 were emitted, with China's share at 30.7%. However, these emissions refer to the entire national production and do not take into account emissions due to the net export of goods and services. In this study by Anjing Wang, Yu Liu, Bo Meng and Hao Lv, entitled Tracing the CO2 emissions embodied in Chinese mainland's exports with multinational enterprises: From source to sink (August 2023), via decomposing the total exports according to the source of value-added and via decomposing carbon emissions embodied in total exports, it's estimated that:

In addition to 2016, every year more than 10.0% of Chinese mainland's carbon emissions are used to meet the consumption of foreign countries or regions. The MNEs (Multinational enterprises) located in Chinese mainland have produced about 6.8%–11.1% of the domestic carbon emissions export and the proportion is on a decreasing trend.

This estimate referring to 2016, when China's total emissions were 9.77 billion tonnes of CO2, leads to an estimate of emissions due to the export of goods and services of between approximately 664 million tonnes and 1 billion tons of CO2. Furthermore it is added that:

About two-thirds of Chinese mainland's domestic carbon emissions export is produced by Chinese mainland's domestic enterprises through intermediate products export, and it mainly concentrates in the basic metals industry, other non-metallic mineral products industry and chemicals and pharmaceutical products industry. For the DCEE (Domestic Carbon Emissions Export) produced by export of intermediate products, the industrial distributions of domestic enterprises and the MNEs located in Chinese mainland are similar, and they both mainly concentrate in the basic metals industry, other non-metallic mineral products industry and chemicals and pharmaceutical products industry. While for the final products export, the industrial distributions of the DEs (Domestic Enterprises) and the MNEs located in Chinese mainland have much difference. The DEs of Chinese mainland have much bigger proportions in textiles, wearing apparel, leather and related products industry and electricity, gas, water supply, sewerage, waste and remediation services industry. And the MNEs located in Chinese mainland have much bigger proportion in other manufacturing, repair and installation of machinery and equipment industry. The main export destination regions of DEs and MNEs are similar both for the intermediate products export and final products export in 2005, 2010 and 2016, and they mainly concentrate in the developed countries, India and ROW (Rest Of the World). ROW and the USA have been the largest export destination regions for the DEs and MNEs, followed by Japan, Korea, India, UK, Germany, etc.

Furthermore, in this other recent study, Embodied Carbon in China’s Export Trade: A Multi Region Input-Output Analysis by Weixin Yang et alii (March 2022), provides a higher estimate of GHG emissions due to China's net exports of goods and services. In this case, the model used is the international input-output table, which is also known as a multi-region input-output table. This table can better illustrate the relationship between input and output of various economic sectors in different countries or regions, and has higher academic and application value in terms of study on international trade and operation patterns of the international economy. Thus, as can be seen from the graph below, since 2007, apart from the subprime mortgage crisis, the share of CO2 attributed to Chinese exports has always been more or less equal to 2 billion tonnes per year. In short, it is stated that:

In terms of the time trends, China’s overall embodied carbon in export trade showed a rapid growth trend from 2000 to 2007, i.e., from 670 million tons in 2000 to 2.20 billion tons in 2007. The embodied carbon started to decline after 2007 and reached a local lowest level of 1.76 billion tons in 2009. However, after that, it rebounded to around 2.1 billion tons and remained at this level.

In other words, this study estimates CO2 emissions due to exports to be at least 20% of the total.

Interestingly, there is no study that provides a spatially explicit mapping of global carbon footprint in China simultaneously considering both international and interprovincial trade. This study Mapping global carbon footprint in China (Yuantao Yang et alii, 2020) shows that the carbon footprints (CF) of foreign regions in China are concentrated in key manufacturing hubs, including the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and North China Plain. Approximately 1% of the land area holds 75% of the global carbon footprint in China. The carbon footprint hotspots in China identified are the key places in which collaborative mitigation efforts between China and downstream parties that drive those emissions. In other words, that most of the CF of China’s export occurs in a small number of hubs occupying a small portion of land area in China (figure below).

However, this study, How do green product exports affect carbon emissions? Evidence from China (Kangyin Dong et alii, June 2023), notes that:

Several studies focus on the trade of green products; however, research focusing on the provincial export value of green products in China is scarce. Furthermore, no studies to date focus on the influence of green exports on local CO2 emissions, and scholars have not yet examined the differential effects of products with different technological levels on CO2 emissions. Moreover, focusing on the mediating effect of the nexus between green product exports and carbon emissions is beneficial for formulating specific policies according to regional differences and mediating mechanisms.

Furthermore, foreign trade has undeniably contributed to China's economic development (Zhiheng Chenet and Yaru Tan, 2022):

The pattern of embodied CO2 emissions in China’s trade is closely linked to its natural advantages and the extent of its participation in the international demarcation. Since its accession to WTO, China has been integrated into the GVCs, and developed countries in Europe, NAFTA, and East Asia have relocated their industries without competitive advantages to China through foreign direct investment. As a result, China has become the world factory and has been vigorously developing its manufacturing industries regardless of the consumption of resources and damage to its environment, relying on an export-oriented economy. It's important to realize that trade is one of the important drivers of China’s economic growth. Industrial relocation is one of the causes of growth of carbon emissions; however, it is also one of the driving forces of economic growth.

5. Pollutant emissions in China

Rapid economic development and rigorous environmental protection actions have driven dramatic shifts in China’s air pollution pattern over the past decades. Due to the dominant use of coal to generate energy, air pollution in China was once primarily characterized by coal smoke. Traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) is now prominent due to the fast urbanization of China and the growing number of motor vehicles. Consequently, air pollution in China has gradually changed into a complex pattern with coal smoke, TRAP, and secondary aerosols of similar importance (Overview of particulate air pollution and human health in China: Evidence, challenges, and opportunities, 2022).

Over the past decade, China’s once-pollution-choked skies have steadily improved, according to more than two decades of atmospheric measurements taken by NASA satellites; but researchers say that there is still a long way to go to clean China’s air and protect the health of its citizens. Each year, air pollution is responsible for more than four million premature deaths globally, including an estimated one million in China, primarily from heart disease, lung cancer and respiratory illnesses. Fine particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometres or less, referred to as PM2.5, is the most concerning air pollutant. Infact, since 2004, the Chinese government has provided subsidies to retrofit smokestacks in coal-fired power plants with filters and other equipment to remove sulfur dioxide, a molecule that reacts with other compounds in the atmosphere to form PM2.5?particles, from emissions (Air pollution in China is falling — but there is a long way to go, by Dyani Lewis , 1 May 2023).

The study Air pollution emissions from Chinese power plants based on the continuous emission monitoring systems network (by Ling Tang, Xiaoda Xue, Jiabao Qu et alii, 2020) is the first to develop an inventory of particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2)?and nitrogen oxides (NOx)?emissions from power plants using systematic actual measurements monitored by China’s Continuous Emission Monitoring Systems (CEMS) network over 96–98% of the total thermal power capacity. However, due to the lack of comprehensive real measurements, existing inventories rely on average emission factors that suffer from many assumptions and high uncertainty. Despite the methodological limitations reported in the study, a decline in air pollution emissions (such as particulate matter, SO2 and NOx) from Chinese power plants is shown throughout the period considered, i.e. between January 2014 and December 2017 (figure below).

The World Health Organization (WHO) for China states that:

Air pollution leads people to be exposed to fine particles in polluted air that penetrate deep into the lungs and cardiovascular system, causing diseases including stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory infections. Industry, transportation, coal power plants and household solid fuel usage are major contributors to air pollution. Though some progress has been made, air pollution remains at an alarming rate in China, and affects economies and people’s quality of life. Air pollution is responsible for about 2 million deaths in China per year. Of those deaths, ambient air pollution alone caused more than 1 million deaths, while household air pollution from cooking with polluting fuels and technologies caused another million deaths in the same period in China.

China has shown a decline in PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (micrograms per cubic meter), since 2013 (figure below), despite having (2019) extremely higher values (48 μg/m3) not only than the EU (13 μg/m3) and USA (8 μg/m3) but also than Indonesia (19 μg/m3), while it has lower values than Pakistan (63 μg/m3) and India (83 μg/m3).

In this recent research, Overview of particulate air pollution and human health in China: Evidence, challenges, and opportunities, by Qingli Zhang et alii (November 2022), it is stated that:

In the past decade, the Chinese government has implemented a series of rigorous policies and measures for air pollution control, such as the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (2013–2017, referred to as CAP for short) and the Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Battle for a Blue Sky (2018–2020). Substantial improvements in air quality have been achieved following these actions (figures below). As shown in figures below, the annual average population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations have started to decline remarkably since 2013, but were still well beyond the global means. The annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were 30 μg/m3 and 54 μg/m3 in 339 major Chinese cities in 2021, which are slightly lower than the current China AQS (35 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 70 μg/m3 for PM10) but remain significantly higher than levels in the updated WHO AQG (5 μg/m3 for PM2.5 and 15 μg/m3 for PM10). The number of premature deaths and disability adjusted life years attributable to PM2.5 in China continues to increase, although this increasing trend is relatively modest compared with the global average

The following figure shows a substantial absolute decline in tonnes of major pollutants (SO2, NOx and dust) in recent years across China, apart from an increase in NOx from 2016 to 2017 (Policy Effect on Clean Coal-Fired Power Development in China by Jianyun Zhang et alii, January 2022).

A further study, Health Effects of Air Pollution in China (by Wenling Liu et alii, July 2018), concludes the average AQI (Air Quality Index) in autumn/winter had significant negative effects on public health in the Central/Western China, and the longest duration of good air quality in spring/summer was significantly and positively associated with health in Central/Western China.

Furthermore, total Hg (THg) reductions from coal-fired power plants retrofitting prevented 30,484.77 total points of IQ decrement and 114 deaths from fatal heart attacks (points and deaths hereafter) in total during 2011–2015 compared with 2010, equivalent to 9.09% and 9.26% of the total IQ decrement and deaths from fatal heart attacks caused by the Hg emissions from CFPPs in China in 2010 (China's retrofitting measures in coal-fired power plants bring significant mercury-related health benefits by Jiashuo Li et alii, December 2020). As illustrated in figure below, the health benefits in each province had large spatial variability, and approximately 70% of the contributions (10,720.97 points and 78 deaths) came from the top 10 provincial regions with the greatest emission reductions.

6. Conclusion

China consumes approximately 51% of primary energy from coal while almost 61% of electricity production comes from coal-fired plants. It also consumes 50.5% of global coal. Per capita carbon dioxide emissions are higher than the EU and lower than the USA, although the USA has had a decreasing trend since the early 2000s, on the contrary, China has shown a growing trend since the 1950s. China's per capita CO2 emissions are significantly higher than those of India, Indonesia and Pakistan. Ultimately, China shows a growing trend in the use of coal both as a source of primary energy and electricity, and also consumes more and more mass (around 4.5 billion tonnes) of coal (belying the IEA forecasts for 2023).

Without a doubt, definitely over the last 30 years, China’s energy-intensive economic growth model, with high levels of investment and a high share of industry in GDP, has been a major driver of its coal consumption and CO2 emissions (Coal Consumption in China: Understanding Recent & Future Trends by Fredrich Kahrl, June 2022).

Air pollution in China has been making headlines around the world with hazardous haze blanketing Beijing for extended periods of time in 2013 and 2014, while a dust storm in March 2015 broke monitoring equipment in the nation’s capital. In early 2015, Under the Dome, a video by journalist Chai Jing that effectively communicated the scope of China’s air pollution problems to a popular audience went viral, wracking up over 200 million views, before being pulled from Chinese websites. There is no question that the problem is serious; however, air quality has been slowly improving in China since the 1990s (UNDP, Air Pollution in China, September 2016).

As can be observed, scholars have not yet reached a consensus regarding the impact of exports on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China. I'm of the opinion that it's appropriate to use an objective metric, such as GHG emissions to GDP, so kg GHG per USD; however, this metric is worse for China, not only when compared to developed countries (UE and US), but also compared to large developing countries such as India, Indonesia and Pakistan.

Increased exports signify higher local production, accompanied by high energy consumption, especially fossil fuels, and carbon emissions (Barrows and Ollivier, 2021; Liu et al., 2021; Rahman et al., 2021). However, export trade increases the flow of goods and services, which facilitates the introduction of new energy-saving technologies that may promote carbon emission reduction (Can and Gozgor, 2017; Managi et al., 2009). Assuming that CO2 emissions in China due to exports are the maximum value of the estimates reported here, i.e. 2.2 billion tons (Weixin Yang et alii, 2022), this represents almost 20% of total emissions. Instead, the estimate by Anjing Wang (et alii, 2023) for 2016 quantified CO2 emissions from exports between 6.8% and 11.1%. Essentially, the vast majority of CO2 emissions in China are due to domestic production. Furthermore, it must be considered that exports contribute to GDP growth and therefore to China's wealth. However, export trade increases the flow of goods and services, which facilitates the introduction of new energy-saving technologies that may promote carbon emission reduction (Kangyin Dong et alii, 2023).

The obsession with reducing GHG emissions in Western countries, which has already been underway for decades as shown by the graphs for the USA and EU, is completely useless considering that China is the largest emitter with a strong growth trend. For example, from the most recent data (European Environment Agency - EEA), referring to 2021, 250 million european passenger cars have emitted 440.5 million tonnes of GHG while the entire road transport (includes commercial vehicles and heavy vehicles) emitted 747.9 million tonnes of GHG. Global GHG emissions, emitted by the use of fossil fuels, were 36.82 billion tonnes (Our World in Data). Ultimately, the entire fleet of cars circulating in Europe (EU-27) contributes only 1.28% of global emissions while the entire road transport in EU-27 is almost 2.2%.

Not only that, India with 1.42 billion inhabitants and also Indonesia (276 million inhabitants) and Pakistan (236 million inhabitants), if they were to present an increase in economic growth this would mean an increase in GHG emissions. It can be observed that China is a country rich in coal but relatively scarce in oil and natural gas, so coal is still the dominant energy source in the current primary energy consumption structure. Thus, in the process of providing export products and services, the large-scale consumption of coal by various industries has led to high carbon emissions.

Honestly, in China it's not possible to replace the main energy source, represented by coal (and other fossil energies), in the "medium-long" term, both to support economic growth and demography. However, it is still possible to develop clean production technologies in fields such as supercritical coal-fired power generation and coal gasification, etc. by upgrading technologies in order to strengthen clean production in the export sector. In detail, supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal plants have approximately between 750 and 800 grams of CO2 per kWh versus about 440 grams of CO2 per kWh for natural gas, so the difference is not huge (IEA ; US EIA). At the same time (Weixin Yang et alii, 2022), it is necessary to reduce the proportion of coal in the primary energy consumption structure as much as possible. By increasing the proportion of natural gas in the primary energy structure, developing safe nuclear power, introducing also clean and renewable energy (hydropower, geothermal energy, biomass energy, PV, etc). In addition, the slow progress of China’s electricity market reform hinders the reduction of coal power utilization hours purely based on economic dispatch principles. Local governments’ preferences for local generation enterprises may obstruct the phase-out of uncompetitive coal power in certain regions (Repositioning coal power to accelerate net-zero transition of China’s power system by Kangxin An et alii, 8 March 2025).

Lastly, considering GHG emissions exclusively and obsessively is not a correct approach. It is important to evaluate, in energy processes, the emissions of pollutants which are harmful to health (PM, NO2, SOx, VOC, etc.). So, air pollution (PM, SO2 and NOx) in China is falling? Probably yes but there is a long way to go. Instead, greenhouse gas (GHG) and nitrous oxide (dinitrogen oxide or dinitrogen monoxide, N2O) emissions have increased dramatically in China since World War II.

Calls to reduce the operating capacity of China's coal-fired power plants (Coal power in China: A multi‐level perspective review by Haonan Zhang at alii, July 2020) have been defied by hard data. Despite coal project cancellations in Bangladesh, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Pakistan in 2020, an estimated 503?GW of capacity remains under development globally, 344?GW outside China (Government shareholders, wasted resources and climate ambitions: why is China still building new coal-fired power plants? by Alex Clark et alii, March 2021). It is expected that commissioning new powerful hydro and nuclear power plants, as well as highly efficient coal-fired steam-turbine-based power units (CFSTBPUs) with the single capacity of 600 – 660, 1000 – 1050, and 1350 MW, ultra-supercritical (USC) steam pressure, main and reheat steam temperatures of 600 – 620°C. It is also planned to reconstruct a part of the numerous subcritical 300 MW CFSTBPUs in operation with an increase in their main and reheat steam temperatures from 537 to 600°C, as well as to modernize some previously commissioned USC CFSTBPUs. Shanghai Shenergy Power Technology presented the highest values of net efficiency for newly commissioned and reconstructed CFSTBPUs according to field tests carried out by GE and Siemens. As a rule, the newly commissioned and reconstructed CFSTBPUs are supposed to be able to participate in covering the daily and weekly unevenness of power consumption, as well as in ensuring the reliability of power supply during uncontrolled declines in the power generation of wind and solar power plants (Development of China’s Coal-Fired Power Plants in the Coming Years by A. Sh. Leyzerovich, December 2021).

Taking into account the uncertainty of China's coal consumption data (section 2.1), it is necessary taking a pragmatic approach, considering that over three and a half billion people live "only" in 4 countries (such as China, India, Indonesia and Pakistan), is essential to avoid insisting on absurd and unfeasible policies in the West (on this point I advise this video Time to Get Real about Climate Change by Sabine Hossenfelder ).

MP

Update March 8, 2025

References

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02041-1

https://zenodo.org/records/7636699

https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2023

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8998101/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652623015883

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15883-9

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ghg-emissions-by-gas

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-ghg-emissions?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL

https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/china

https://www.power-technology.com/news/china-permitting-two-coal-fired-power-plants-per-week/?cf-view

https://www.worldometers.info/coal/china-coal/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-023-02466-8

https://www.efdinitiative.org/sites/default/files/publications/spatial_distribution_of_coalfired_power_plants_in_china.pdf