How many Brexits are still needed?

With very few exceptions (Trump, Putin and few others) all political leaders worldwide thought that Brexit won't happen and then ... they were very surprised when it did. However, once Donald Trump has been stunningly voted as the 45th US President (another Brexit-type event), we cannot talk about unusual events, anymore. There must be a common theory behind these 'Brexits', as they might be happening because someone is not learning their lesson, again and again, ignoring such theory.

Who are the Brexits' voters?

The carbon-copy demographics of the Brexit and of the 2016 US Presidential elections clearly point towards those who have the voting power to determine such unexpected events, not just in the UK and in the US, but in virtually any democratic country, anywhere in the world. The Brexits' voters are those who mostly:

1. live in rural areas or in small cities
2. are educated below college-level
3. are middle-aged
4. have low-to-medium income, or are unemployed
5. are not foreign-born

Is this the generic description of blue-collar workers? It would probably be a mistake to include them in such a limiting categorization, at least because the way they vote is not determined by their characteristics as a person, but by their failed expectations about the democratic society they are living in.

To use a business analogy, it's the Job-To-Be-Done that determines these people to vote as they do. But what does this mean?

Brexists' voters Job-To-Be-Done

However far-fetched might such analogy be, we are talking about the concerns and needs (and the reasons behind them) of those who voted and decided the outcome of these two Brexit-type events and, most probably, of many others that may happen in democracies anywhere in the world, during the coming months and years.

Ours was not a campaign, but an incredible movement - Donald Trump

In his first speech as US President-Elect, Trump described his 18-months campaign as an anti-establishment movement. However, this movement was neither Republican Party's nor his campaign coalition's one, but a movement of those who voted for this new 'Brexit', because they've seen their concerns and needs addressed, in a way or another, by GOP candidate's campaign focus and messages.

Let's look at the reasons behind their concerns and needs.

The professionally-disenfranchised

The accelerated boom of new technologies, the unprecedented globalization of the economies and the increased freedom of movement across borders have had a huge impact on these people's capability to professionally keep-up with such changes.

We are talking about people who used to have relatively good jobs, 15-20 years ago. People who are still middle-aged (therefore still capable to work for one or more decades), but who didn't have the privilege of a higher-education that could have increased their adaptability to professional environment's quick evolution nor do they reside in geographic areas (large cities) with higher workforce demand.

They are people who have expected the establishment's and politicians' programs to effectively help them deal with the gap between their competencies, abilities and experience and the requirements of the evolving economies, a gap that enlarges more and more every day.

To make things worse, these people have seen their factories close doors and ship operations abroad, outsource their jobs to other countries and younger, or better specialised immigrants from under-developed countries, or just people born elsewhere who accept to work for lower wages in a country more developed than theirs. Furthermore, in many cases, these people have lost their jobs and have discovered that it's harder and harder to find new ones, seeing their income reduced to unemployment or social care benefits.

The forgotten ones will be forgotten no more - Bernie Sanders

Let's make an important point here: The expectations to have the economic and social trends blocked, contained or reversed are unrealistic illusions. Unfortunately, much too often, opportunistic politicians, like Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, in the UK, or Donald Trump, in the US, have used such effect-focused solutions (like commercial agreements re-negotiation or the exit from commercially-relevant unions) to promise voters that the pressure upon their jobs will be reduced or lifted. Without an alternative, the only thing these people can do is to credit such promises and vote as they did for the Brexit or for Donald Trump as the US President.

The bureaucratic, ineffective establishment

The Brexits' voters have another set of concerns and needs that are mismanaged by the politicians: The more and more bureaucratic establishment (national or European, in UK's case) that is increasingly ineffective in solving issues within the fiscal, health, education or national security systems that they are administrating.

Since they are the most vulnerable people in these democratic countries (the cause), the Brexits' voters are more sensitive to the ineffectiveness of the failed administrative systems that the politicians have mismanaged for many years. The effect of such failed expectations, is the propensity to vote for anti-establishment movements, like those lead by the UKIP in the UK or by Donald Trump in the United States.

Let's make another important point here: The expectations to have such systems' ineffectiveness approached through effect-focused measures are also unrealistic illusions. Unfortunately, administrative isolationist policies (like the UKIP blaming Government's inefficiency on EU's bureaucracy) or security palliative solutions (like Trump's Mexican border wall, or Muslims' deportation) have been extensively promised by the anti-establishment opportunistic politicians. Without an alternative, the only thing the Brexits' voters can do is to credit such promises and vote as they did for the Brexit or for Donald Trump as the US President.

When will the politicians learn?

Unfortunately, the social, economic and political reasons that lead to such Brexit-type events can be found in the majority of the democratic, free-economy countries around the world. Should we expect more such 'Brexits'? Certainly, yes. Just watch the next elections and referendums scheduled in various countries around the world, during the following months and years.

What lesson should be learned?

It's the set of reasons that generate the concerns and needs (the Job-To-Be-Done) of the Brexits' voters, which require root-causes measures, including economic programs surgically-targeting the economically-disenfranchised people.

Obviously, they do not include effect-focused actions, like increased commercial protectionism, heavier social assistance or other similar palliative, surrogate policies that have been exhausted and failed by the majority of the establishments in many countries, during the past years. Unfortunately, some politicians will still use this route, because it's the lowest-effort one and the easiest understood by the audience, since it's based on fears and false-targets that are common topics within the public media (some of them purposely-promoted by local or international sources).

Instead, the responsible politicians should act as change-agents, but based on programs correctly-focused upon the root-causes that should address the re-qualification and increased mobility of middle-aged, low-medium educated and with low-medium income or unemployed nationals, living in rural areas or in small cities. They should be given 'the fishing rod, instead of the fish'.

Any responsible electoral platform should make it crystal-clear how this will be done, with the necessary cause-effect relationships explained, so everybody can easily understand them and asses the feasibility.

At the same time, the change-agent role should include establishment's shake-up programs aimed at significantly reducing the administrative systems impact upon the vulnerable people who are middle-aged, low-medium educated and with low-medium income or unemployed nationals, living in rural areas or in small cities. In the case of Donald Trump, this kind of programs might actually produce effects (unlike the isolationism & xenophobic ones), since he's an establishment outsider, who will potentially apply his business skills and experience to public administration and public systems re-organization.

The Job-To-be-Done for the people who are Brexits' voters is to get out from their economically-disenfranchised and establishment-vulnerable status and the responsible politicians should address this explicitly and communicate their feasible root-cause-focused actions intended, or face the alternative of the votes going to opportunistic politicians ... and another Brexit added to the series.

What's NEXT?

UPDATE: The Romanian parliamentary elections followed the same Brexit-Trump pattern and the result was identical (success of the parties backed by the Russian propaganda). So far, the Austrian presidential elections was the only glitch in Kremlin's campaign. If in doubt about Putin's intentions and methods, read the declassified version of the report published one month after the US elections by CIA, FBI and Office of the Director of National Intelligence (Washington Post article).

UPDATE#2: The death roller-coaster started by the Brexit turns quickly into a nightmare of history for many nations. On 17th January 2017, Vladimir Putin met officially with Igor Dodon, the new pro-Russian president of Republic of Moldova. What was the gift offered by Putin to Dodon? A map of the 'Great Moldova', half of which is part of the territory of Romania. You don't grasp what this means, do you?

Dear Brexit voters, unleashers of nightmare, that's like an official visit of Sinn Féin's Gerry Adams to Dublin, receiving as gift from Ireland's president Michael Higgins a map of the 'Great Ireland'. Got it better now?