How to make uncertainty your friend in forecasting and goal setting

The panic sets in. Who can we blame? What excuses can we offer? How do we manage the surprise?

It seems we aren’t going to hit our numbers. 

Next year we resolve to do better. We put more work into predicting the right number. We get more data. We get firmer commitments. We ratchet up our effort, believing that trying harder will improve our forecasting enough to prevent surprises. But it doesn’t work.

In an era of unprecedented access to data and communications, we still miss our forecasts. 

In discussions with companies as diverse as pharmaceuticals company Alnylam on what to present to the board, to chip manufacturer Intel on improving reliability in setting expectations, to materials company Rogers Corp. on accounting for innovation in long-range planning, we’ve come to a radical diagnosis of the problem...  Continue reading >>