How Long will it take for the American Empire to collapse?

The collapse of empires is a complex and messy process that can reshape history overnight. Hence, we need to fear the impending collapse of the American Empire.

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Notably, Chinese diplomats negotiated a sudden normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia ?that could lead to a peace deal. This deal took US leaders by surprise. More importantly, the Iran-Saudi deal shows Chinese ascendancy in a region of the world long dominated by the US, the Middle East.

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Hence, it appears the informal American Empire in the Middle East and elsewhere is collapsing before our eyes. This empire is crumbling for several reasons, including rising Chinese power, political turmoil within the United States, changing US political opinion, shrinking American military capabilities, changing technologies, and the strange American obsession with Russia and Ukraine.

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What is the American Empire?

Describing the American Empire is hard because the US imperium is not one of direct rule.

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Instead of colonies, like the British Empire, the US Empire is based on a series of alliances with governments and local elites. Typically, the US does not conquer or occupy other countries. Instead, the US government props up governments and groups that support or promote American interests.

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This arrangement allowed the US to assemble a far larger empire than with traditional methods and to dominate most of the globe. They built the American Empire with three attributes: overwhelming military force, economic dominance, technological leadership, and ideological flexibility.

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The End of American Military Domination

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Superior technology, particularly air power and a giant navy, are the basis of American military power. For almost eight decades, the US Air Force could bomb almost anything anywhere on Earth. This ability allowed the US to win two Iraq Wars and conquer Afghanistan.

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Similarly, the US can police the world’s oceans because it has the world’s most powerful navy. In particular, the US is the only country with a fleet of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.

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Changing technology is destroying American power. For example, observers note fighter jets, a key US military technology , are useless in Ukraine. To explain, antiaircraft defenses make it impossible for both Russian and Ukrainian fighters to establish aerial dominance.

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This is bad for the US because US military operations rely on air power to control the battlefield. For example, the US easily defeated Iraq in two wars because US planes destroyed all of that nation’s tanks and artillery. Without control of the sky, American troops would have had to fight their way into Baghdad and causalities would have been far higher.

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I think the failure of air power in Ukraine is one factor that drove the Saudis to make a peace deal with Iran. To explain, Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud could fear that American air power might not protect his nation from an Iranian invasion. Consequently, MBS has a strong new motivation to talk peace.

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US naval power is also in decline. Notably, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could have 100 more advanced warships than the US, the Center for Military Modernization claims. To explain, the US Navy has around 167 state-of the-art warships, while the PLAN has around 267.

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Experts disagree on whether the numerical advantage can give the PLAN an edge in a future war. However, just the thought that another nation’s fleet could beat the US Navy will make some leaders change their plans.

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America is no Longer Number One

American economic dominance is collapsing faster than US military power. The US became the world’s dominant economy because it was the top manufacturer.

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China has far surpassed the US in manufacturing. The People’s Republic of China had 28.7% of the world’s manufacturing output in 2019 , Safeguard Global estimates. In contrast, the US contributed16.8% of global manufacturing output in 2019. If these figures are true, Chinese industrial capabilities are double those of the United States.

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However, the US is still the world’s largest economy, with $25 trillion in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, The Visual Capitalist?estimates. Yet, the Chinese are catching up, the People’s Republic had $18.3 trillion in GDP in 2022.

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Having the world’s largest economy allowed the US to dominate other countries with loans and exports. The Chinese are developing similar capabilities. There are many complaints about Chinese Debt Imperialism.

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For example, Chinese institutions have lent $1.5 trillion to over 150 nations , the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) alleges. Two countries Djibouti and Angola had debts to China that exceed 40% of their GDP in 2020 , Forbes?alleges.

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Thus, China has accumulated vast economic power that undercuts US hegemony. For example, Chinese companies easily undercut America’s sanctions regime against Russia by buying oil and other natural resources with Yuan.

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China had $3.128 trillion in cash reserves in December 2022 , Reuters estimates. That gives Chinese leaders the raw economic power to ignore US leaders and buy many friends.

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Chinese Technological Leadership

The Chinese are also winning the technology race. For example, China leads the world in patent applications.

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For example, the number of 2021 Chinese patents applications exceeds US patent applications by almost one million. Chinese inventors filed 1.586 million patent applications in 2021, the World International Property Organization (WIPO) estimates. In contrast, American inventors filed 591,473 patent applications in 2021.

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Moreover, Chinese intellectual property applications are increasing ?as American patent applications file. The number of Chinese patent applications grew by 5.9% in 2021, the WIPO estimates. Meanwhile, the number of US patent applications fell by -1% in 2021. Similarly, the number of German patent applications fell by -5.7% in 2021.

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Importantly, the overall number of Chinese patents (3.6 million) exceeds the number of US patents (3.3 million), the WIPO estimates. The Chinese are also leading in creativity. The number of Chinese trademark filings in 2021 was 9.455 million, the WIPO estimates. In contrast, the number of US trademark filings was 899,678.

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Hence, Chinese inventors are laying the groundwork for a century of technological dominance. Similarly, late 19th?and early 20th?century US inventors, led by Thomas Edison, laid the groundwork for a century of American technological dominance.

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One reason China is leading in the patent race is investment in research and development (R&D). Between 2010 and 2020 Chinese R&D expenditures grew from 78% of US R&D investment to 139% of American R&D spending , the Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF) estimates. Hence, Chinese R&D expenditures are 39% larger than US research and development spending and growing.

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Similarly, the number of Chinese written science and articles was 123.7% greater than the number of US articles in 2020, the ITIF estimates. Hence, IPwatchdog’s Steve Brachmann thinks “China is Achieving Innovation Parity with the U.S. ” I think innovation parity or dominance will allow China to dominate the global economy for decades.

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America’s Rigid Ideology

Ideological flexibility was another basis of American power. By being ideologically flexible, US leaders were free to form alliances with almost any nations.

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For example, the US formed a close alliance with the Soviet Union during World War II that defeated the Nazis. Similarly, during the Cold War, the US allied itself with many right-wing dictators, including Francisco Franco in Spain. These alliances blocked Soviet expansion and contained Communism.

At the same time, the strongly capitalist US allied itself with some socialist countries, including the United Kingdom and Israel. Similarly, the officially anti-racist US allied itself with the racist apartheid regime in South Africa. The democratic United States formed alliances with absolute monarchies in Saudi Arabia and Iran. Later in the Cold War, the US formed a close alliance with the rigid Communists in the People’s Republic of China.

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America has lost its ideological flexibility in recent years. In particular, some Americans have adopted rigid opinions on human rights and democracy that make an effective relationship with the People’s Republic of China or Saudi Arabia possible. Moreover, the US has been throwing some of its former allies, such as the regime in Afghanistan, under the bus in the name of human rights.

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Frighteningly, some American leaders are demanding regime change in Russia and the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin and refusing to consider a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine War. I think this creates an opening for Chinese diplomacy.

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As the US leadership becomes more ideologically rigid. It becomes harder to have healthy relationships with allies, client states, and rivals. It is impossible to negotiate with an enemy when your official policy is the total destruction of the enemy.

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One problem is that many foreign leaders dismiss American leaders as either crazy or lying because of this rhetoric. Hence, nobody takes American leaders seriously. Consequently, America can no longer wield the soft power the US has relied on for over a century.

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That soft power is the ability to create a close working relationship with any regime. For example, President Richard M. Nixon’s (R-California) famous opening to China and close relationship with Mao Zedong. I cannot imagine such creative relativism in today’s Washington.

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China’s American path to Global Hegemony

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I think Chinese leaders have studied the American Empire and are using the proven US strategy of economic power, military might, technological dominance, and realpolitik to achieve global hegemony.

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For example, Chinese diplomats are using US style realpolitik to make new alliances in the Middle East. Notably, the Chinese can work with the Shia Islamic Republic in Iran and the rigid Sunni monarchy in Saudi Arabia.

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I predict Chinese diplomats will try to broker an Israeli-Saudi or Israel-Iran peace deal next. I have to wonder to how Americans will react to such a deal, particularly when their “friend” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flies to Tehran to sign a Chinese-brokered peace deal with the Grand Ayatollah. My prediction is such a deal will spark a wave of racist and antisemitic conspiracy theories among America’s political elite.

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Similarly, the Chinese are trying to broker a peace deal ?between their client, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Ukrainian government. Importantly, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is showing interest in such a deal .

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“I plan to meet with Xi Jinping, and I think that would be useful to our countries and global security,” Zelenskyy told reporters. Such a deal could give the Chinese access to Ukraine’s grain and ports.

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In contrast, US President Joe Biden (D-Delaware) wants total victory ?in Ukraine and the arrest and trial of Vladimir Putin. Hence, Biden wants to sacrifice Ukraine to stop Russia, something Zelenskyy wisely opposes.

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Instead of Realpolitik, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken pontificates about human rights and finds few friends. Hence, the US is sacrificing global hegemony for morality. Predictably, Blinken is finding few takers for his policy among foreign leaders or the American people.

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One reason Blinken’s human rights crusade falls flat is that it combines arrogant rhetoric about freedom with hysterical racism and xenophobia. In particular, hysterical fear of everything Chinese by American policymakers. For instance, the Biden administration is threatening to ban TikTok because a Chinese company, ByteDance, owns that social media platform.

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Outside the US, this rhetoric sounds like Soviet propaganda or the old British blather about the White Man’s Burden. Foreigners, and many Americans, view Biden’s rhetoric as pure hypocrisy or lunacy.

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Hence, the US is losing both its moral and practical leadership. For example, the US lost a chance to dominate the Middle East because of hostility to Iran. Now, the bloody war in Ukraine is destroying what little moral appeal the US position has.

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Therefore, the American Empire could collapse overnight if Chinese Minister Qin Gang?can negotiate a Ukraine peace deal. I predict a Chinese-brokered Israel-Iran deal could follow a Ukraine true, which will further isolate the United States.

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The US could find itself with Britain as its only “friend.” Until the Prime Minister flies to Beijing and joins China’s BRICs alliance . Then America will find itself alone and miserable.

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The Chinese are beating the US with an American strategy and most Americans cannot see it.