How Long Do They Have?

As the digitally empowered consumer has surged to dominance in retail, many traditional "big business" retailers are floundering or failing. 10 years ago I authored research about invasive species in business. Maverick* Research: How Invasive Species, From Burmese Pythons to Kudzu Plants, Succeed in Nature and in Business. In revisiting the research, I see the invasion curve at work in retail now more than ever. But what is the invasion curve?

The invasion curve identifies the points where existing organizations will be most likely to eradicate invaders.

In nature, the invasion process defines four distinct phases, along with barriers and many failure points. The invasion curve identifies the points where existing entities (for our purpose retail organizations) will be most likely to eradicate invaders. The trouble is that it's much easier to prevent invasive species from establishing themselves in new territory than it is to root them out once they've gotten comfortable. The invasion curve, seen in this figure, identifies three distinct time phases, and models the likeliness of successful eradication.

Theoretically, if Walmart had identified the threat of Amazon as an invader in the 1990's, it could have prevented or even eradicated the threat. Having failed to do so, even after rising as an invader itself, it was left with operating in the establishment and more recently the spread stage. In the final (spread) stage the only options are coexistence or extinction. Here however, Walmart has proven its agility and therefore ability to effectively coexist. Other retailers are not as lucky.

Theoretically, if Walmart had identified the threat of Amazon as an invader in the 1990's, it could have prevented or even eradicated the threat.

In fact, Walmart has improved its positioning on the continuum when compared to its placement when I first published this in 2013. Today Walmart is locked in a battle with Amazon, as it wants to retain its leadership of US grocery market. A business that, at least so far, has been elusive for Amazon. It has continued to challenge Amazon Prime with Walmart+, and leveraged its vast stores network to drive local fulfillment.

Walmart uses fast-spreading organizational skills to outsmart the competition on the ground.

Walmart is similar to the Crazy Ant. Crazy Ants use multiple queens and colonies that work together to expand territory. In this way Walmart uses fast-spreading organizational skills to outsmart the competition on the ground. This has allowed it to gain and retain more than 25% share in the US grocery market.

Likewise Target has improved its positioning through its significant digital transformation efforts and Best Buy has also improved but still has challenges. Macy's is a different story. In 2013 I had it placed on the left, showing tremendous opportunity to capitalize on its national presence, and strong digital commerce rankings. Unfortunately it has failed to live up to the magic that customer's expect from a physical store experience.