How Are LLMs Making Cold Job Apps More Like Random Weather Predictions?

Authors: Elliot G. & Rachel Fuld Cohen

Introduction

A lot has changed in job searching over the past decade. Even more has changed in the past two years. In every way these changes, including the ubiquitousness of applicant tracking systems, the impact of professional social networks, and AI’s ability to highly customize and mass apply to jobs, has made it harder to land a job through cold applying alone.?

If you’re not convinced, we’ll first run through why cold applications don’t work, how they’ve become an even worse option in a post-LLM world, and finally what you can actually do to stand out.

Cold applications don’t work. So why do people keep doing it?

Somewhere between 4-10% of people get jobs through cold applying. That’s the same percentage as people who can randomly predict the weather. And the same percentage as people who have more than one kind of pet in their home. TLDR - It’s not a lot.?

If cold applying to a job is so ineffective, then why do people keep doing it? And, more importantly, why is there so much resistance to trying other paths? (Note: For this article, we define cold applying as sending in an application to a company without a referral and without attempting to reach out to anyone at the company).

Let’s run through a quick list of reasons why people keep cold applying:?

1. Fear: Fear of networking, especially if they’ve never done it before.
2. Ease: It’s much easier to just click apply, and AI tools make it easier than ever.?
3. Hope: There’s always the possibility that a cold application could result in something, so why not send it in anyway?
4. Anxiety: There’s real social anxiety embedded in the networking process, paired with a lack of knowledge around how to network politely, without projecting entitlement. What do you say? Why does it feel bad to ask strangers for advice or a referral??
5. Time: Networking takes time, and most people only start networking in a job search. It’s far easier and feels more effective to start cold applying than to invest time in networking. The former feels like tangible progress, even if it’s not resulting in interviews, whereas networking is a slow burn.
6. Lack of Skill Confidence: The hope that once you achieve a certain milestone (e.g. finishing a certification or side project), you’ll feel more confident networking.
7. Perfectionism: Not feeling ready until you’re done perfecting your resume, even though networking done right means you might not ever need a resume to get interviews.

Cold applications in a world with LLMs

It used to take some effort to tailor a resume and cover letter to each job description. Now, you can feed the entire process through an LLM so it drastically reduces the time it takes to create targeted applications.?

A HacknerNews comment from early 2024 illustrates the prevalence of this trend: “The job market is broken right now for software engineers and it’s far easier to use AI to apply to a hundred jobs in the hope one gets back to you instead of 5 handcrafted applications per day that have tailored responses.”

Being able to submit 100 applications a day with the help of LLMs feels like an improvement over how things were before, but it still perpetuates the inefficient logic of cold applications. Many other tech-savvy job seekers are also doing the same thing, reducing whatever edge you might think you have with mass AI-assisted applications.?

To complicate matters further, recruiters are using automated screening tools to help filter through the increased application volume.? Since late 2022, the noise to signal ratio has gotten worse, and will continue to worsen as each side tries to wield AI to gain an edge in the job market. Personal connections were always important in the job search process, but in a world with LLMs, they’ve become absolutely critical to landing the job you want.?

Networking to increase career resilience and opportunity

When we talk about networking, the focus is often on how it can speed up your job search. But there are many other reasons why networking is a great idea even when you’re not actively looking for a job. Let’s take a look at two underrated reasons: increasing career resilience and opportunity.??

Career resilience

When I (Elliot) graduated from my tech bootcamp and into the pandemic job market, I remember feeling quite panicked watching all my interviews vanish, until an older classmate said to us: “Welcome to your first recession, one of many in your career.”?

That helped me gain perspective. Many of us will work for 30-40 years. There are many things that could come up over a lifetime of work: downturns, industry shifts, technological disruptions, and even personal life changes that necessitate a career pivot. Strong networks can provide a buffer or even a softer landing place during many of these events.?

We often don’t think of networks as a support system, since sometimes browsing your LinkedIn feed can make career progress feel like a zero-sum game, but most people want to help. Your network can provide practical advice on handling a layoff or a career pivot, or even just offer encouragement during the stress of unemployment.?

Our careers are long and unpredictable. External shocks are out of your control, but networking is one way to build a professional safety net that can make facing tough times easier.?

Career opportunities

Hidden jobs are by definition not posted publicly or if they are, they don’t advertise themselves as a job posting. If you’ve never gotten a job through the hidden job market, this can sound completely made-up or not worth the effort of tracking down.?

But we can tell you from personal experience that the hidden job market is very real and it’s much larger than people realize. Some estimate it as larger than the visible job market .?

Hidden jobs are typically filled through referrals, direct recruitment (e.g. head hunted), or through serendipitous encounters.? When a company embarks on a search to fill a role, they often do so fairly urgently.? That’s why they offer incentives to their employees to refer from their own trusted network.?

The only way to access this market is by participating in the network. Having a range of contacts can open doors to opportunities like freelance projects or job openings so new that there isn’t even a posting online yet.?

Networking thus positions you to be a first-mover in these projects. Being in the right network can mean you’re top of mind when these opportunities come up, giving you a competitive edge.

How to network in less awkward ways

It’s clear that investing time in networking beats the dismal odds from cold applications. But networking can feel too awkward to actually try it out yourself, and so much advice online doesn’t show you how it’s actually done.?

Let’s go over how you can learn to network in the two stages of a job lifecycle:

During a job search

When you have no network, it’s really hard to get started but there are a few ways to increase your odds of getting to know more people in your target industry, namely prepare and reach out.

Let’s say you’re a new grad trying to land your first data analytics role and you want to start having informational interviews. These are virtual Zoom calls or in-person coffee chats with the purpose of learning more about the industry, trends, and the hidden job market.?

People are busy, so make it easy for them to say yes to you. You need to prepare three things, in the following order:

• Have a professional online presence
• Signal competence with proof of work
• Craft a compelling and brief message

1) What’s a professional online presence?

You don’t need a LinkedIn stacked with achievements. Keep it simple with a short 2-3 sentence bio, list your current program or industry and any interests, and upload a professional headshot. Don’t overthink it, the point is to look credible when people Google your name and decide within 60 seconds whether you’re a person who has done the bare minimum in presenting themselves professionally.?

2) How do I signal competence?

Having a degree or certification is not enough to convince someone of all the good qualities they’re looking for in a colleague. It’s not even enough to convince them that you know your technical stuff–that’s why there’s such a heavy emphasis on having an online portfolio or an active GitHub repository so others can see proof of what you know.?

What a lot of this advice is missing, however, is that the Jupyter notebook, code, or deployed app rarely speaks for itself. In fact, nobody really wants to figure out what you were trying to do in a certain project only through the codebase. Again, they have maybe 30 seconds to figure out whether you’re worth spending time on. Give them a TLDR version of the project by writing it up (here’s a handy primer by Elliot on how you can turn a portfolio project into a blog post specifically for networking purposes).?

3) What do I say in my messages?

Now that you have a professional presence (LinkedIn) and proof of work (make sure to publish your writing somewhere accessible), you’re ready to start the cold outreach pipeline. Keep your outreach message short and call out any similarities that you have to your target. It should be as brief as:

“Hi,? I noticed that we both attended ____. I am interested in a 15 minute chat with you about your experience at Company X. I recently did this related project where I built this model to improve this outcome: [Link to project]. Could Day @ Time or Day @ Time work well for you?”

This isn’t a magic bullet to getting job referrals or even landing a conversation. But it will increase your odds of getting to one.?

Networking takes time and, counterintuitively, can feel lonely when you’re waiting for responses. It’s important to be consistent in your effort, and it helps to know you’re not alone in the process. Many job seekers are joining Job Search Councils . This innovative approach is based on Phyl Terry’s book, Never Search Alone , and creates a structure, community, and methodology to job searching. The peer support embedded in this model serves as an entry-point into networking and enables continued outreach and high motivation.

After a job search

Once people land a job, they’re relieved and rightfully celebrate this career win. Then they make the mistake of cooling the networking. If you network between job searches, however, then you may never have to network during a job search again! Here are some practical best practices to sustain quarterly to keep your community cheering for you:

1. Keep your LinkedIn active. Post about interesting work you’re doing and, just as importantly, reply to other people’s posts.?
2. Join Slack or other professional communities. There are a plethora of industry-based Slack communities (e.g., Locally Optimistic , DataTalks.Club , Work on Climate , or Bits in Bio ) or intentional upskilling and learning communities (e.g., Silicon Society ) that you can join to regularly engage with a network.?
3. Attend professional events, such as meetups or conferences, to meet others in your local job market. Bonus points for trying to speak or volunteering at one of these events as a way to contribute and build your personal brand.
4. Take a few calls per quarter with professionals who reach out to you! Offer to help them however you can. It’s amazing how quickly the helpee can become the helper.

We know this can sound like a lot but over time it will start to feel like second nature. Now that AI has taken over job searching, the personal touch and real connections that you create will be even more important.

Need some help getting started?

DM either of us and we will gladly give you 3 tips to improve your LinkedIn profile so you are prepared to start your outreach.

About the Authors:

Elliot Gunn is a technical writer at Datafold where he recently helped launch the Data Quality Guide , a fun medieval-themed take on data engineering challenges. He gave a talk for PyData’s Impact Scholarship program on how new entrants to tech can use writing as a job search technique .

Rachel Cohen is the COO of Silicon Society , a software, data, and design agency supported by a community of career-minded technologists. She is passionate about supporting engineers throughout their careers and spent over a decade creating, executing, and coaching in job search programs at Columbia University’s Data Science Institute and the Bloom Institute of Technology.?