How to Lead in Times of Transition and Turmoil

"Anyone can hold the ship's wheel when the sea is calm." — Publilius Syrus??

I’ve been thinking a lot about that idea lately—not just in the context of my work but in my own life. Transitions are rarely neat or easy. They are full of questions without answers, decisions without guarantees, and moments when you wonder if your path is leading anywhere. Transition can feel unsettling or overwhelming for someone who thrives on clarity and planning.??

But I’ve also come to believe that uncertainty is where the most meaningful work happens, both in leadership and life. The in-between space, where things aren’t yet fully formed, holds the most significant possibility for transformation.??

At USAID, uncertainty isn’t an occasional challenge—it’s a constant companion. Crisis response, humanitarian assistance, and long-term development efforts are inherently unpredictable and fluid. Teams often operate in highly volatile environments, balancing immediate response with strategic, long-term goals. Roles shift, priorities evolve, and plans must adapt as new information emerges. In this environment, transition and ambiguity aren’t exceptions; they’re the rule.??

Working with teams who have returned from deployments in places like Gaza and Ukraine, I’ve seen how complex and volatile these environments can be. In Gaza, humanitarian workers adapted daily to rapidly changing conditions. The infrastructure and resources they relied on one day could disappear the next. They leaned heavily on local partnerships built over the years, integrating new strategies in real-time to deliver aid and support communities caught in the crossfire.??

Similarly, in Ukraine, teams had to balance rapid response efforts with longer-term recovery planning, navigating constant flux. Trust with local partners became essential as humanitarian teams worked to provide life-saving assistance while anticipating what might be needed next. Every day brought new challenges that required creative solutions and an ability to shift priorities on a moment’s notice.??

Experiences like these taught me that in moments of uncertainty, people don’t expect their leaders to have all the answers. What they need most is hope, trust, compassion, and stability.??

The Power of Hope??

The other day, I read Gallup’s recent Global Leadership Report,? which identifies these four core needs of followers during periods of uncertainty. I paused when I read it. Not because the words were unfamiliar but because it felt like the reminder I needed most in that moment.??

Of all the needs listed, hope stood out the most. Hope isn’t about false reassurance or pretending everything will be fine. It’s about offering a reason to believe that things can get better—and showing a clear, intentional path toward that future.??

From our teams, I’ve learned that hope can mean breaking down overwhelming challenges into achievable steps, celebrating small victories, and helping each person see how their work contributes to a larger mission. In Ukraine, hope became a powerful tool for keeping teams moving forward despite an unclear path. It wasn’t about providing certainty but about offering a steadying force and a belief that progress—however small—was still possible.??

Leadership in a VUCA World??

In a VUCA world—one defined by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—leaders must focus on building trust, showing compassion, and offering stability. These aren’t abstract concepts. They’re the foundation of how we support our teams, especially when everything feels in flux.??

During an organizational restructuring, I made it a point to hold weekly “honest hours” where team members could ask anything—even questions I couldn’t yet answer. Trust grew not from having all the answers but from being transparent about what we didn’t know and listening to concerns without defensiveness.??

Compassion also became critical. When a key team member struggled to manage work-life balance while responding to multiple global crises, we didn’t just focus on productivity solutions. We redesigned our approach to team interactions, creating space for both professional growth and personal well-being. These weren’t grand gestures. They were small, intentional actions—showing up, listening deeply, being honest when things were hard—that accumulated into something steady and strong.??

The Courage to Be Vulnerable??

In times of turmoil, the most courageous leaders I’ve worked with are those who embrace vulnerability as a strength. It takes courage to say, I don’t know, to ask for help, and to admit when things aren’t working.??

I learned this lesson during a failed project launch. Instead of maintaining a fa?ade of control, I gathered my team and openly discussed what wasn’t working. The resulting conversation transformed our approach and the nature of our relationships. People leaned in, trusted more, and felt seen in a rare and profoundly powerful way.??

I’ve watched leaders at USAID navigate the hardest of transitions—responding to disasters, reorganizing teams, or rethinking strategy in response to evolving global challenges. The ones who thrive aren’t the ones who push forward blindly. They pause. They reflect. They ask, What do we need to learn from this moment? How can we build forward in a way that’s thoughtful and bold???

In moments like these, I’ve found that co-creating a path forward is essential. One of the most powerful tools I’ve developed is a simple exercise that invites teams to reflect on three questions:??

- What do we want to keep???

- What do we need to leave behind???

- What do we want to create anew???

These conversations are always rich, sometimes painful, but ultimately freeing. They allow teams to honor the past without being trapped by it and to imagine a future they can create together.??

Navigating My Own Transition??

Writing about leadership in times of uncertainty feels more personal than usual because I find myself in a period of transition—professionally, perhaps even personally—where the path forward feels less clear than I’d like. It’s uncomfortable. The instinct is to rush through it, find an answer, and tie everything up neatly.??

But I’ve learned enough from the leaders I admire that sitting in uncertainty is part of the work. Clarity doesn’t always arrive on demand; sometimes, you can listen, stay curious, and trust that the next step will reveal itself.??

What has helped me most is the reminder that transformation is rarely a straight line. Leaders like Satya Nadella at Microsoft didn’t transform their organizations by leaping from Point A to Point B. They preserved what worked while creating space for new growth—all while staying deeply connected to the people they led.??

Through all these experiences, I’ve learned that the best leaders don’t offer certainty. They offer presence, perspective, and a willingness to evolve. They help their teams find stability without stifling growth. They hold space for complexity while still offering hope.??

Uncertainty isn't something to be fixed if I’ve learned anything in my work. It’s something to be navigated with care and curiosity. The storms will come. The transitions will feel messy. But in those moments, real transformation becomes possible—not because we eliminate the uncertainty, but because we grow through it.??

And that is where the real work begins.??