How Law and Justice (PiS) is regrouping ahead of the presidential elections

Jaros?aw Kaczyński’s party is preparing for significant leadership changes in the near future, including plans to absorb its coalition partner, Sovereign Poland. These moves are expected to bolster the political standing of Mariusz B?aszczak, the former Minister of Defence, who is being tipped as Kaczyński’s successor. However, uncertainty remains over who PiS will field as its candidate for the Polish presidency in 2025.

B?aszczak as the future PiS leader?

At the upcoming party congress, Mariusz B?aszczak is expected to be appointed chairman of PiS's Executive Committee, a newly formed body responsible for the party’s day-to-day operations. This appointment is widely seen as the start of a succession process, signalling Kaczyński’s intention to hand over the reins to B?aszczak. This would deal a political blow to former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who had long been seen as Kaczyński’s heir apparent.

Recently, in the aftermath of the flooding in southern Poland, B?aszczak has been a prominent media presence, criticising the government’s crisis management. As a former Minister of the Interior and Defence, he has condemned the government’s handling of the situation while praising the military’s efforts in the affected areas. He has also announced plans to publish a report highlighting five major government failings during the crisis.

B?aszczak is also being discussed as a potential PiS candidate for the 2025 presidential election. Known as Kaczyński’s closest ally, he has no significant enemies within the party and is building his presidential ambitions on his experience leading key ministries responsible for internal security and national defence.

Party’s candidate dilemma

PiS is still undecided on its presidential candidate for 2025. So far, the names circulating are largely unknown figures from the party’s second and third tiers. Kaczyński has all but ruled out Beata Szyd?o and Mateusz Morawiecki, hinting that the candidate should not be someone too closely associated with past right-wing governments. Recently, MEP Tobiasz Bocheński and MP Zbigniew Bogucki have emerged as potential candidates, while former Minister of Sport Witold Bańka, now President of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), has ruled himself out of the running.

B?aszczak would appear to be the natural candidate, but his lack of charisma and stiffness in public appearances are seen as potential drawbacks. PiS candidates currently mentioned in the context of the election are largely unknown, but the party has a proven track record of successfully promoting relatively obscure figures (even if the National Electoral Commission rejects PiS’s annual financial report, causing the party to lose its right to state funding for three years). It’s worth remembering that, a decade ago, Andrzej Duda was also a little-known MEP, yet a vigorous election campaign helped him raise his profile and ultimately win.

PiS faces a challenge in selecting a candidate, as the party must navigate between two competing priorities. On the one hand, Kaczyński would prefer a candidate who is even more loyal to the party than Duda, who, despite everything, tried on several occasions to assert his independence (Kaczyński recently admitted that he hasn’t spoken to the president in four and a half years). On the other hand, such a compliant candidate might struggle to win the presidential election. PiS is keen to retain control of the Presidency, as the president can veto government bills and block key appointments.

Unification before the elections

As PiS prepares for the pre-election campaign, it is looking to swiftly absorb Sovereign Poland, its smaller coalition partner, which currently runs on its electoral lists. Sovereign Poland, founded by Zbigniew Ziobro in late 2011 after his departure from PiS, has been aligned with the party since the 2014 local elections. Ziobro’s serious illness has raised further questions about his party’s future. While Sovereign Poland is ideologically close to PiS, it is more radical on certain issues, particularly in its stance on the EU and the Green Deal. Ziobro and his team are widely blamed for the chaos in Poland’s judiciary, as Sovereign Poland has been shaping the government’s justice policy throughout PiS’s rule. The scandal involving the misuse of the Justice Fund has also primarily affected politicians from Sovereign Poland.

A PiS congress was scheduled for 28 September to introduce changes to the party’s statute, creating a new leadership structure, and to confirm the merger with Sovereign Poland. However, at the last minute, the congress was postponed to 12 October, officially due to the flooding, as the party did not want to focus on internal matters on a day when the government was holding an emergency meeting to amend the state budget in response to the disaster.

Unofficially, it appears the merger with Sovereign Poland has hit a stumbling block. Patryk Jaki, negotiating on behalf of the ailing Ziobro and effectively the party’s number two, is demanding a PiS vice-presidency and at least one Sovereign Poland politician on the PiS Political Committee. There are also rumours that Sovereign Poland is delaying the merger to see who PiS will nominate for the presidential race. The “Ziobrists” are unwilling to support a campaign for Morawiecki, whom they blame for PiS losing power and oppose at every opportunity. This animosity is mutual, as Micha? Dworczyk, one of Morawiecki’s closest allies, who previously served as the head of his PM’s Office, has publicly criticised the idea of merging with Sovereign Poland.

In recent polls, PiS holds steady with 30-31% of voter support, just behind the Civic Coalition. Notably, since July, PiS’s average polling numbers have risen by around two percentage points.

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