How the International Cooperation That Thwarted Iran's Attack on Israel Came Together
By Yossi Melman - Apr 16, 2024 10:03 pm IDT
A number of parties deserve credit for Israel's impressive success and Iran's ringing failure in the early hours of Sunday morning. First and foremost, of course, is Israeli intelligence – the Mossad and the Israeli army's Military Intelligence – which, based on years of intelligence-gathering, provided the most current information on Iran's missiles and drones. Also critical was the air force intelligence group that was able to set targets based on this information and to activate the air defenses to destroy the incoming Iranian missiles.
The air force also deserves praise for the excellent performance of the various layers of the country's air defenses , as well as the performance of the air force jets, primarily the Adir (F-35) squadrons. The air force and Israel Defense Forces as a whole reclaimed their pride to some extent after the resounding failure of October 7 .
But there were other key partners to this success. First of all, the United States, along with Britain, France and Jordan, which actively participated in intercepting Iran's aerial assault. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain were also part of the international coalition that was assembled, mainly by the Americans, in order to minimize the damage caused by the Iranian aggression.
If Iran would have successfully hit Israel and caused major damage, Israel would unquestionably have struck back at Iran that same night, and a regional war may well have broken out – which could also have dragged the United States in against its will. In fact, over the past 15 years or so, American administrations have suspected that Israel sought to induce Washington to attack and destroy Iran's nuclear sites.
'Not just for show'
Iran says it gave its Arab neighbors prior notice of the attack and even specified the time it would take place. These claims must be viewed with great skepticism. Countries generally do not announce their intention to launch military strikes, and certainly do not provide exact information about when it will happen.
"I find it hard to believe that they gave prior notice," says Maj. Gen. (res.) Nimrod Sheffer, a former air force deputy commander, former head of the IDF Planning Directorate and also former CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries. "Considering the scale of the Iranian attack, they clearly intended to cause major damage. They carried out a combined attack with a variety of weaponry – an attack that was calculated and synchronized in terms of the times the weapons would hit their targets. So, they clearly aimed to inflict vast damage on Israel and this was not just for show."
The ballistic missiles with a 500-kilogram warhead – Iran fired 110 of these – can cause enormous damage if they strike their target. According to the IDF spokesperson's unit, four of these missiles struck the Nevatim air base, home to the Adir F-35 squadrons, and caused minor damage to some buildings there. The Iranian drones that carry warheads ranging from 40 to 100 kilograms can also cause serious damage if they score a direct hit on buildings or runways.
In total, 350 drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, weighing more than 60 tons were launched against Israel, all aimed at the Nevatim base. All except for four were destroyed (some disintegrated in midair) and didn't reach Israel.
However, the nature of Iran's comprehensive attack plan made it easier for Israel and U.S. intelligence to uncover it.
Sheffer explains: "An attack of the type that Iran launched requires multiple logistical preparations. Drones have to be taken out of hangars, transported, positioned on takeoff runways. The plan also requires coordination among different bases and exchanges of communications, which must be encrypted. To prepare missiles and install them on their launchers takes. If some or all of the ballistic missiles that Iran launched were propelled by liquid rather than solid fuel, they need several hours to be prepared for firing – which also provides an opportunity for this to be discovered by intelligence."
The Saudi lessons
Essentially, since the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus on April 1, after which Iran threatened revenge, the Israeli, American and British intelligence communities – the latter with its base in Cyprus – and those of the Arab states were all on high alert and focused on Iran.
All of these intelligence communities had already been closely monitoring activity in Iran for many years, as Tehran has been continuously attacking its neighbors, hitting U.S. troops and bases, arming and dispatching its proxies to entrench themselves in and operate from Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
It is almost certain that Iran launched its weapons from several districts. This was meant to make it harder for Israel to launch a preemptive strike if it chose to, and to challenge Israel's air defenses more. Perhaps the Iranians also meant to test Israel's capabilities this way.
Israel's success also owes something to lessons learned from the Revolutionary Guards' airstrike on Saudi oil company Aramco in September 2019 . Dozens of Iranian drones and 10 Iranian cruise missiles caused vast damage to the company's facilities and oil fields, forcing the Saudis to reduce oil production by 50 percent for that period.
Although it was weeks in the planning, the operation against the Saudis caught both the Americans and Israelis unawares. "A lot was learned from what happened in Saudi Arabia about how to prepare for Iran," a former IDF Military Intelligence official tells me.
Between Hatzor and Dimona
The failure of the Iranian attack is also a direct result of the cooperation between Israel and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), which has grown increasingly close over the years. This includes joint military exercises by both countries' air forces (these have been going on for about two decades). There were also joint exercises with many other air forces, including – according to foreign reports – some Arab countries, as well as those of France, Britain and Jordan (who all took part in the operation overnight into Sunday).
Even more important, though, is the operational cooperation: Aircraft from both Israel and the United States (Jordan, too, per foreign press reports), have participated in strikes on targets in the Middle East, primarily during the war on the Islamic State group .
This cooperation required that spheres of operation be allocated ahead of time to each of the air forces operating against the Iranian attack. It entailed control of airspace in real time by the air forces, coordination among planes in the air and air defense systems on the ground, and coordination among the control and war rooms that are spread around Israel and Cyprus, and the U.S. air bases in the Middle East, including bases in Qatar and Bahrain. Presumably, simulations have been conducted for years at the level of U.S. Air Force Headquarters and Israel Air Force Headquarters, examining a range of possible scenarios for an Iranian attack.
Years ago, as part of the military and strategic cooperation between the two countries, a joint control center was built at the Hatzor air base 40 kilometers (25 miles) south of Tel Aviv. On the day of the Iranian attack, and possibly before that, representatives from the United States, Britain, Jordan, and perhaps other countries that were involved in the effort to foil the attack, were likely there.
Also, a few years ago, the U.S. radar system AN/TPY-2 was installed next to Dimona in southern Israel. This system can detect and intercept aircraft and ballistic missiles at a range of 2,000 kilometers – a range that makes it possible to detect the launch of ballistic missiles in Iran. The radar system is situated on two separate towers at a height of 400 meters (higher than the Azrieli Towers in Tel Aviv, which are 238 meters high). On Saturday night, this radar system was surely working overtime.
The U.S. satellite system also played a very important role. Israel has several Ofek spy satellites, but they cannot detect preparations for missile launches. The Ofek satellites can only detect the missiles shortly after launch, which gives Israel 10 to 12 minutes' advance warning. But the American system, which consists of dozens of satellites, has some that are dedicated exclusively to detecting missile launches before the missiles have even left the ground. This system likely also aided Israel in locating and thwarting the surface-to-surface missiles.
Opportunity for diplomatic action
"The failure of the Iranian attack created an important opportunity for alternative ways of operating against Iran," Sheffer says. Asked to expand, he replies: "We have several options that I don't wish to elaborate on, but first and foremost we should be thinking about diplomatic action. The Iranian attack gives Israel new legitimacy. The extraordinary international cooperation, and Israel's welcome restraint so far, enable us to make the most of this support. We can say to the United States and Europe: 'We now have the right to take action against Hezbollah . Deal with Hezbollah – get it to move away from the border and bring quiet to the north. If you don't do that, then we will do A, B or C.'
"But for this to happen, we must have leadership and statesmanship. Before talking about how to respond, the Israeli leadership needs to ask itself what we want to achieve with Israel's response."
How the International Cooperation That Thwarted Iran's Attack on Israel Came Together - Israel News - Haaretz.com
+++++++++++
The Hill.
US forces intercepted more than 80 attack drones and at least 6 ballistic missiles from Iran and Yemen, says Central Command
BY NICK ROBERTSON - 04/14/24
American forces downed more than a quarter of the missiles and drones bound for Israel from Iran on Saturday evening, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said Sunday.
American and European-allied destroyers shot down 80 Iranian attack drones and at least six ballistic missiles launched from Iran and Yemen and bound for Israel. It is estimated that about 350 missiles and drones were launched at Israel in the large-scale attack.
“Iran’s continued unprecedented, malign, and reckless behavior endangers regional stability and the safety of U.S. and coalition forces,” CENTCOM said in a statement . “CENTCOM remains postured to support Israel’s defense against these dangerous actions by Iran. We will continue to work with all our regional partners to increase regional security.”
Nearly all of the drones and missiles were intercepted before reaching their targets in Israel, with the Israeli government reporting no deaths and only minimal damage from the attack. It came in response to an Israeli strike on Iranian military leaders in a diplomatic building in Syria earlier this month.
The strike has raised fears over a wider regional conflict between Israel and Iran, as some Israeli leaders call for retaliation while others pledge themselves against war. President Biden spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday to urge him against escalation in the conflict.
“This was a very aggressive and brutal attack, which looks like a declaration of war,” Israeli President Isaac Herzog said in a CNN interview Sunday . “But I also added immediately to say that we are not seeking war. We are seeking always peace.”
Arab governments in the region have also called for de-escalation, as has the United Nations.
“Now is the time for maximum restraint,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in an emergency U.N. meeting held Sunday at the request of the Israeli delegation.
领英推荐
“The people of the region are confronting a real danger of a devastating full-scale conflict. Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate,” Guterres said. “It’s time to step back from the brink. It is vital to avoid any action that could lead to major military confrontations on multiple fronts in the Middle East.”
+++++++++
The Hill.
Austin speaks with Chinese counterpart for first time in nearly 2 years
BY ELLEN MITCHELL - 04/16/24
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Tuesday morning spoke with his Chinese counterpart, reestablishing top-level military communications between the two countries for the first time in nearly two years. ?
Austin and Chinese Minister of Defense Adm. Dong Jun, who spoke via video teleconference, discussed U.S.-China defense relations,?operating in the South China Sea and U.S. policy toward Taiwan, as well as the war in Ukraine and recent provocations from North Korea, according to a Pentagon readout of the call.?
Speaking to reporters ahead of the call, a?senior defense official said?the dialogue is meant to ensure competition with China “doesn’t veer into conflict.”?
“We think having these open lines of communication is important to avoid any kind of misperception, misunderstanding, miscalculation, anything that would cause competition to spiral into conflict,” they said.
This is the first time Austin has spoken with Dong, who took over as China’s top military official in December?after his predecessor was removed without explanation, and the first time the Pentagon chief?had a substantive exchange with a Chinese counterpart since November 2022.?
Austin had interacted with?then-Minister of Defense Li Shangfu in June at a dinner in Singapore while both were attending a defense forum, but the two only shook hands as China had rejected a U.S. invitation for a formal meeting.?
The call marks another step in the thaw in?diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, coming about five months after a meeting between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco. The two also spoke over the phone earlier this month. ?
China had ended most military communication with the United States?after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visited Taiwan in August 2022. The trip sparked condemnation from China, which views the?independent island as its own territory and has threatened to bring it under its control by force. ?
But after Biden and Xi’s meeting, where the two agreed to open more lines of dialogue, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown held a video call with his Chinese counterpart in December, the first time the two had spoken. ?
U.S. and Chinese military officials also met in Waikiki, Hawaii earlier this month to discuss the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) — a typically annual meeting meant to reduce any air and sea clashes between the two. ?
An additional set of MMCA meetings is expected later this year, the official said. They added that the two sides “are continuing to discuss future engagements between our senior defense and military leaders.”?
++++++++++
Why Russia Doesn't Want War Between Israel and Iran
COMMENTARY - Apr 12, 2024
This commentary originally appeared on The National Interest on April 11, 2024.
An Israeli airstrike on an Iranian embassy in Syria last week killed three IRGC-QF generals and four other Iranian military officers. Iran is expected to retaliate in the coming days or weeks. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed that Israel will “be punished” and “regret this crime,” while President Ebrahim Raisi said that the attack would “not go unanswered.” Fears are high that this could trigger an escalation of the Israel-Hamas war into a broader regional conflict and potentially even a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. Although it has been argued that Moscow benefits from chaos in the Middle East—diverting Western attention and resources from Ukraine—it stands to lose a great deal if the Israel-Hamas conflict escalates into a wider war.
Russia has spent the last decade shoring up its influence in the region, often by taking advantage of localized conflicts. This was most evident in Libya, where Russia exploited the country's civil war to establish a foothold, and in Syria, where Russian intervention saved the Assad regime from imminent demise in 2015. Russia then expanded its footprint in Syria, establishing a permanent presence at military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. After the U.S. withdrawal from Syria in 2019, Russia stepped into the void, helping Syrian government forces regain control of the northeast of the country. The same year, Russia held joint naval exercises with Egypt; the construction of a Russian-built nuclear plant in Egypt earlier this year demonstrated the continued growth of ties between the two countries.
While Russia capitalized on instability in Syria and Libya to establish itself as a regional security guarantor, it is not positioned to reap similar benefits if the Israel-Hamas war escalates. In part, this reflects Russia's preoccupation with its invasion of Ukraine. Last October, distracted by the war, Russia failed to intervene on behalf of former-ally Armenia as Azerbaijani military forces overran the ethnically Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. This suggests that Russia currently lacks the capacity to act as a stabilizing force in the post-Soviet sphere, let alone the Middle East.
Other signs suggest that Russia's influence in the Middle East may be waning . The evolution of the Russia-Iran relationship may hold clues for Russia's future status in the region. Since the start of the invasion two years ago, Russia has deepened its partnership with Iran, pursuing greater defense and economic cooperation since the invasion of Ukraine two years ago. Russia has found a critical military supplier in Iran, which has provided Moscow with unmanned aerial systems , ballistic missiles , and fighter jets . A closer relationship with Iran has also improved Russia's ability to withstand international sanctions.
Moscow's growing friendship with Tehran may signal that Russian influence in the Middle East remains strong. However, it could also signal the opposite: Russia may realize that its future role in the region will be contingent on the favor of an increasingly capable Iran. For Moscow to achieve its long-term strategic objectives in the Middle East, it must cultivate a close working relationship with Tehran.…
The remainder of this commentary is available at nationalinterest.org .
Michelle Grisé is a senior policy researcher at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institute. Her research focuses on Iran, South Asia, Russian foreign policy and military strategy, and international law.
++++++++++++++
Read more:
Netanyahu to UK, German FMs: Thanks, but we make our own decisions
UK FM David Cameron, German FM Annalena Baerbock meet Israeli officials - The Jerusalem Post ( jpost.com )
The End+++++++++++