How Indian economy will collapse?

In December 2014, I had given a presentation at Rambhau Mhalgi Prabodhini, which is think tank of the Indian government in Mumbai. The title of my presentation was "Global Economic Crisis and Mass Capitalism as Blueprint for Economic Revival". I had put forth the common sense theory of supply and demand, pointed to flaws in MAKE IN INDIA as well as put forth some suggestions for reducing inflation and eliminating black money from economy.

I am grateful to BJP Vice President, Mr Vinay Sahasrabuddhe, for giving me this opportunity to present my ideas. I was hopeful that perhaps my ideas will reach the central government and they will understand what are the flaws in their economic policy. I had also sent several copies of my books to central government and in February 2015 made a trip to BJP headoffice in New Delhi to follow up on my suggestions. Well, To my disappointment, the ideas based on common sense were not endorsed by central government.

My gut feeling was that this government is perhaps going to take India in a wrong direction because I could foresee the disasters of MAKE IN INDIA. In fact, I became even more confident when China's markets crashed in 2015 that my ideas are solution for not just US economy but even for Indian economy which does not have any semiconductor manufacturing facility and has huge unsustainable trade deficits from imported electronics. I was invited to several television shows ( including the prime time show on Black Monday, 24 August 2015) where I stressed on India's trade deficits as well as wealth disparity. However, Very few took my ideas seriously then.

When Narendra Modi government took the radical step of demonetization, I was on vacation in Thailand and I could see the panic amongst the Indian tourists who were not able to get their Rs 1000 and Rs 500 denomination currencies changed at any of the FOREX locations. Indeed, Demonetization caused a lot of problems for ordinary people of India. I also realized that if the ideas that I have put in my book MASS CAPITALISM are correct, then the present policies are NOT going to eliminate black money in India. I also wrote several blogs about it when I came back to India from my vacation in Southeast Asia. On 17th November 2016, I wrote India's War on Black Money - Poorly Planned and Executed !!!

The after effects of demonetization have become obvious today. While the economy has started its downward spiral, the even more disastrous effect of demonetization has been the rising disparity in Indian economy. A very recent article highlighted the fact that as India’s Economy Slows, Net Worth of Wealthiest 100 Goes Up By 26%. Mukesh Ambani, who has topped the Forbes’ annual list of India’s richest 100 for the tenth year, saw his net worth go up by 67%. Modinomics has been a disastrous failure for Indian economy. Even Modi's own party members have started questioning Modi's policies as economy bites.

One thing has come true out of all this is that my forecasts have been accurate. The Forecasts were made in March 2015 in Mumbai. If you understand Marathi language, do view it in full and see what I said back then.

India's finance minister, Arun Jaitley, who had turned down my ideas back in 2015, is now under attack from all sides. Many economists of all hues are asking for a fiscal stimulus for the Indian economy. The facts are clear. Since the time Narendra Modi became prime minister and Jaitley the finance minister, i.e. 2014-15, economic growth has steadily gone down – from around 8% to between 5.7 and 6.5%, according to various estimates. BJP MP Subramanian Swamy, normally a supporter of the Modi government, has come out with scathing criticism of Jaitley’s economic policies. 

Modi’s ‘Make in India’ slogan has been a flop as I had forecasted in my analysis in 2015. As former finance minister P. Chidambaram has pointed out, the rate of growth of manufacturing has slumped in recent years and major large-scale industries have created only around one lakh jobs, a nanodrop in an ocean of joblessness. Now, Yashwant Sinha, a finance minister in the first NDA government and, at least formally, a senior advisor to the BJP has put forth in next disastrous thing for Indian economy. According to neo-Keynesian Mr. Sinha,

In order to put the economy on a trajectory of sustained growth, what we need is a large fiscal stimulus package.

While I am sure that just like previous 3 years of blunder committed by Modi government, the government will commit its next blunder of endorsing Yashwant Sinha's ideas. Now, Carefully read my forecasts below.

Once the Keynesian stimulus has been approved, the wealth disparity will FURTHER swell in Indian economy. The failure of Neo-Keynesian policies has been very well elaborated in my to be released book with Business Expert Press entitled NEW MACROECONOMICS. Mukesh Ambani's net worth will rise by up to 80% with new ideas of stimulus but economy will continue stagnating and eventually collapse. Modinomics will lead to a revolutionary election in 2019 when neither BJP nor Congress politicians will be trusted due to failing economic policies. India will most likely have an outsider who does not belong to mainstream politics get elected as its next Prime Minister in 2019.

Author biography: Apek Mulay is a Business and Technology Consultant at Mulay’s Consultancy Services. He is author of several books including Mass Capitalism: A Blueprint for Economic Revival, Sustaining Moore’s Law: Uncertainty Leading to a Certainty of IoT Revolution, How Information Revolution remade the Business and the Economy: A Roadmap for Progress of Semiconductor Industry and New Macroeconomics. He pursued undergraduate studies in Electronics Engineering (EE) at the University of Mumbai, India and has completed master’s degree in EE at Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX. Mulay is presently pursuing his second Master’s degree in Business Analytics at The University of Texas at Dallas. Mulay authored a patent ‘Surface Imaging with Materials Identified by Colors’ during his employment in Advanced CMOS technology development team at Texas Instruments Inc. He has chaired technical sessions at International Symposium for Testing and Failure Analysis (ISTFA) in 2009, 2010 and 2016. USCIS approved his US permanent residency under the category of foreign nationals with extraordinary abilities in science and technologies even though he did not pursue a PhD degree in engineering or economics. He has been cited as an ‘Engineer-cum-Economist’ by superstar economist Professor Ravi Batra in his 2015 Volume ‘End Unemployment Now: How to Eliminate Poverty, Debt and Joblessness despite Congress’. He has appeared on National Radio shows, made Cover Stories in several Industry magazines, authored articles for newspapers as well as several reputed blogs & industry publications. He has also been invited on several Television shows (because of his accurate macroeconomic forecasts) for his ideas about Mass Capitalism. He is also a social entrepreneur and an investing partner in an e-commerce business https://calcuttahandicraft.in/ which he started to envision his ideas based on collaboration that he explains in his book Mass Capitalism. His blog is www.ApekMulay.com