How India plans to checkmate China?

Debt is the worst kind of poverty and those who are quick to borrow are usually slow to pay. China knows this better than most. Using its chequebook policy, it has crafted a belt around India constraining New Delhi's policymaking. Now, India looks to even the score with its own parallel discourse dubbed as the necklace of diamonds. Running from Central Asia to Mongolia, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Seychelles, Oman and Iran, its purpose is to form a containment block around China.

New Delhi is holding Joint Defense drills and doing combined arms exercises. It is expanding its economic partnerships and developing industrial corridors. And more recently, it has been striking game-changing arms deals.

For India and China, choking the other sits at the core of their geopolitics, whether by a String of Pearls or a Necklace of Diamonds. Both seek to dominate the Asia Pacific and leave the other's economy in the dust.

Like a majestic castle, India stands tall and proud but its long winding coastline exposes it to the elements. The Indian Ocean accounts for nearly a fifth of the water on the Earth's surface. It spans three continents, and 28 countries and is a major route for international trade connecting the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. And while the Indian Ocean brings prosperity through trade, it also served as a point of entry for Colonial powers in the past.

Today, China looks to continue that strategy and key to this is the String of Pearls. It goes from Mombasa to Djibouti, to Karachi and Gwadar, to Colombo and Hambantota, all the way to Chittagong to Sittwe and the Coco Islands. Like a pearl diver, China has cast its net far and wide, plucking precious pearls from the depths of the Indian Ocean.

But geopolitics is often driven by an insatiable appetite. Beijing is currently negotiating for dual-use rights in Oman's Duqm Port. It is building a deep water port in Kenya's Lamu Island and it is lobbying the Maldives for a submarine base at Marao. But with each pearl added to its string, China's debt trap policy has left a trail of broken promises. Nations indebted and unable to repay loans are coerced into geostrategic concessions. Understandably, frustrations are plenty.

India is looking to capitalize on those grievances. The result is the necklace of diamond strategy by which New Delhi seeks to create a security umbrella by increasing its naval bases abroad, forging new military partnerships and expanding its power projection across the Asia Pacific.

The ultimate goal is to incapacitate China's String of Pearls

Since its disclosure, India has been on a diplomatic spree signing deals left and right. In 2015, Seychelles agreed to construct a naval base on Assumption Island, leased exclusively to the Indian Navy. Having a foothold in Seychelles would give India a base of operations on the African continent. With the right equipment, the Indian Navy could counter the Chinese presence in Djibouti and Kenya. Plus Assumption Island sits just north of the Mozambique Channel where a lot of maritime trade passes.

A year later, in 2016, Iran Inked a deal with India to build its first deepwater port in Chabahar. From Chabahar onwards, India would connect to the North-South Transport Corridor which links Mumbai to Moscow via Iran and Azerbaijan. From the Indian perspective, having a stake in Chabahar directly counters China's presence in Karachi and Gwadar ports.

In conjunction with the Iranian Port, India also secured access to Oman's strategic port of Duqm. The pact was signed in 2018 and by having a footing in the Arabian Peninsula, India strengthened its seaborne hydrocarbon imports from the Gulf. Plus since Duqm port is located right between Djibouti and Gwadar, it also serves as a counterpoint to those Chinese positions. What's unique about Duqm is that it's also situated near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most consequential choke points. So, India is hitting not two but three birds with one stone.

Also, in 2018, New Delhi signed an agreement with Singapore that allows the Indian Navy logistical support including rearming and refuelling at Singapore's Changi Naval Base. The Singapore pact differs from the previous deals because it allows India to protrude into the South China Sea.

One such base is of course not enough so India also signed a deal with Indonesia in the same year and secured military access to Sabang port located neatly at the northern entrance of the Malacca Strait. Interestingly Sabang port is about 40 meters in depth, so India could use it to station its submarines. Either way, ~80% of China's crude oil and natural gas imports pass through the Malacca Strait making it a strategic vulnerability for Beijing but a strategic opportunity for New Delhi.

Likewise, since 2020, India has been militarizing its Andaman and Nicobar archipelago which sits north of the Malacca Strait.

The more assets the Indian Navy can bring to the periphery, the more bargaining power New Delhi gains over Beijing. But apart from bolstering naval bases, India is also working to enhance relations with the nations surrounding China.

In 2015, India and Mongolia agreed to develop a bilateral air corridor to boost trade tourism and people-to-people contact. Mongolia hopes that India can negotiate with either Russia or China on an equal footing which would help Mongolia balance its policymaking.

Also, in 2015, Indian Prime Minister Modi went on a grand tour across Central Asia meeting with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Central Asia is a place bursting with potential. It has hydrocarbon reserves, rare earth minerals, uranium deposits, and hydropower potential and it is a market with millions of consumers. Trade between India and the Central Asian countries has doubled since Modi's visit and it is likely to grow further still. The more influence India can bring about in Central Asia, the more it can restrain the influence of rival powers.

Later, in 2017, India and Japan launched a joint initiative called the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor. Its goal is to develop infrastructure, accelerate economic growth and boost New Delhi and Tokyo's influence while at the same time contesting China's clout in Africa.

All things considered, India has kept a healthy relationship with nearly all the nations surrounding China.

However, it's not all peaches and roses

India's necklace of diamonds is widely seen as feeble when compared to China's string of pearls. Nowhere is this lack of faith more visible than in the ASEAN region. While the members of ASEAN acknowledge India's many credentials, they doubt India's resolve and capacity to measure up to China. Most of this doubt stems from India's infamous bureaucracy and its failure to deliver on past promises.

Even outside the ASEAN region, there is trouble, as some of the agreed-upon deals are wavering. In Seychelles, for instance, China holds significant lobbying power and Seychelles has been going back and forth on its commitments to both India and China.

Meanwhile, in Iran, Indian firms have had a hard time getting things done. Since the country is under strict sanctions, workarounds are constantly being negotiated so that Indian firms don't risk secondary sanctions.

China is also wealthier than India and it can put money in places where India cannot. So far, China has invested about $60B in the African portion of the string of pearls whereas India's largest investment has been in the Chabahar port amounting to $8B.

Now, many of these downsides are beyond New Delhi's control but one thing India has oversight over and has somewhat dilapidated is armed sales. For context, India has set up Coastal Radar Stations and Control Systems in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Seychelles and the Maldives and while these defensive systems are appreciated, China has provided its allies with more sophisticated weapons like submarines, combat aircraft etc.

Arms sales are a great way to improve relations and develop strategic partnerships

China has mastered the art of arms sales and as a result, it has boosted its foothold across the Asia Pacific but India is learning from its mistakes and has started picking up on the arms sales niche.

As recently as December 2022, India's Brahmos Aerospace offered to sell supersonic missiles to Vietnam and the Philippines. Both nations sit at the outer edge of China's parameters and are deeply suspicious and antagonistic towards Beijing.

The Brahmos is the fastest cruise missile in the world. Flying about three times the speed of sound, it can carry a 200-kilo warhead and can be launched from submarines, warships, aircraft and ground launchers.

Clearly, Beijing isn't happy with these weapons going to Vietnam and the Philippines but then again that is the whole point of grand strategy. Whether it's the string of pearls or the necklace of diamonds, India and China's prerogative is to choke the other by controlling the terms of commerce.

It's war by other means and as New Delhi advances its necklace of diamonds strategy and makes it more competitive, arms sales will play an increasingly decisive role which is not surprising.

The sale of arms is the sale of influence.

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