How India and Pakistan Will Be the Biggest Losers in the Agentic AI Boom

The world is on the cusp of a Generative AI revolution—a transformation that will redefine industries, economies, and global power structures. While many countries are positioning themselves as leaders in this new era, some are at significant risk of falling behind. Unfortunately, India and Pakistan—two of the most populous and tech-driven nations—may end up as the biggest losers if they fail to adapt.

1. The Over-Reliance on IT Outsourcing

India has long been the world’s back office, thriving on IT outsourcing, BPOs, and software development services. Pakistan has also been making strides in the freelance economy, with thousands of professionals offering services on platforms like Upwork and Fiverr.

But with AI automating coding, customer support, content writing, and data analysis, what happens when businesses no longer need millions of low-cost workers? Jobs will disappear faster than new ones are created.

• AI tools like GitHub Copilot and ChatGPT are already replacing entry-level developers.
• AI-powered customer service bots are reducing the need for call centers.
• AI-generated content is outperforming human freelancers in speed and efficiency.

The IT and service economies of these nations are at risk of collapse if they do not shift towards higher-value innovation.

2. Weak AI Infrastructure and Research

While the US, China, and even Europe are heavily investing in AI research and infrastructure, India and Pakistan are lagging far behind.

• Lack of AI patents: Countries leading AI (like the US and China) file thousands of AI patents each year. India and Pakistan contribute less than 1% to global AI patents.
• Limited supercomputing resources: AI development requires vast computing power, but both nations struggle with inadequate infrastructure.
• Brain drain: The best AI researchers from India and Pakistan leave for better opportunities abroad, mainly to the US and Europe.

Without massive investment in AI research, education, and infrastructure, these countries risk becoming consumers, not creators of AI.

3. The Death of the Low-Skill Job Market

Both India and Pakistan depend on millions of low-skill jobs in fields like manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics. AI-powered automation and robotics are set to eliminate many of these roles:

• Manufacturing: AI-driven robots and smart factories will reduce the need for human labor.
• Agriculture: AI-driven precision farming, automated irrigation, and smart tractors will replace traditional farming jobs.
• Retail and Logistics: AI-powered supply chains, self-checkouts, and delivery drones will shrink job opportunities.

With over 60% of the population in both nations engaged in low-skill jobs, this shift could lead to mass unemployment and widen the rich-poor gap.

4. Political and Bureaucratic Barriers

While AI is moving at the speed of light, governments in India and Pakistan are stuck in the past:

• Red tape and slow policy-making make it difficult for startups to innovate.
• Lack of AI regulations creates uncertainty for businesses.
• Geopolitical tensions between the two nations divert focus from technological advancement.

Without proactive government policies supporting AI adoption, both nations risk being left behind in the AI race.

5. The Winner Takes All—And It Won't Be South Asia

AI is an exponential technology—meaning the winners take all. The US, China, and a few European nations are pouring billions into AI research and start-up's. They are controlling AI chips, algorithms, and data, which means they will dictate the rules of the AI-driven world.

India and Pakistan, on the other hand, are:

• Focusing on outdated industries rather than AI-first economies.
• Losing top talent to Silicon Valley and Beijing.
• Lacking the infrastructure to build globally competitive AI systems.

By the time India and Pakistan wake up to the AI revolution, it may already be too late.

The Way Forward: Adapt or Perish

It’s not all doom and gloom. There is still time for India and Pakistan to catch up—but they must act fast. Here’s how:

? Massive investment in AI education—from school curriculums to university research programs. ? Public-private partnerships to accelerate AI start-ups. ? Government-backed AI policies to remove barriers to innovation. ? AI-first economic planning to ensure job transitions and reskilling initiatives.

If India and Pakistan do not wake up now, they will be forced to buy AI from global tech giants instead of creating it themselves.

The AI revolution is a make-or-break moment for South Asia. Will India and Pakistan rise as AI leaders, or will they be left scrambling for digital scraps? The choice is theirs.

What do you think? Can these nations turn the tide, or are they doomed to fall behind? Let’s discuss.