How to Improve the Accuracy of Estimated Delivery Date?

The estimated delivery date (EDD) significantly impacts conversions and customer satisfaction. According to a report by Rakuten Insight, 83% of consumers consider the delivery date when making an online purchase, with 68% abandoning their cart due to unclear delivery timelines. Additionally, 90% of customers value timely delivery as a key factor in their post-purchase satisfaction.?

These statistics underscore the importance of accurate EDDs for driving customer loyalty and increasing sales. Therefore, it is crucial for e-commerce retailers to focus on the accuracy of delivery time estimates.

In this article, we’ll introduce the meaning of the estimated delivery date first, and dive into factors that affect it as well as how e-commerce retailers can improve the delivery date estimates.

Understanding Estimated Delivery Date: Meaning

Estimated Delivery Date (EDD) is a crucial term in shipping, representing the anticipated date a package will reach its destination.?

Use Cases of Estimated Delivery Date

When appearing on the Track & Trace page, the Estimated Delivery Date can help recipients get ready for the delivery. The information of “Estimated Delivery Date” often comes with “Out for Delivery” notifications.

Estimated Delivery Date can also be called “Delivery Date Promise.” It can be found on the product/service pages. For those who support a variety of shipping methods, it is through different delivery date promises that they can easily tell the differences in speed and service priority.?

Estimated Delivery Date vs Estimated Time of Arrival

The Estimated Delivery Date is often synonymous with the Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA), which is a broader term used across various transportation modes. While ETA refers to the exact arrival time, EDD usually means a specific date range to set customer expectations.

These estimates consider various factors, such as shipping method, distance, carrier efficiency, and potential delays. Accurate EDDs enhance customer satisfaction by providing transparency and reliability in the delivery process.

10 Common Factors That Affect the Estimated Delivery Date

1. Stock Availability

Stock availability directly impacts EDD. If an item is out of stock or in limited supply, it can delay order fulfillment. It’s often the case if retailers accept pre-orders. To avoid the impact of overpromising and under-delivering, it’s important to maintain accurate inventory levels and update them in real-time. Nevertheless, it’s extremely difficult for online retailers who dropship from multiple suppliers and platforms.

2. Cut-off Time

Cut-off times determine the latest time an order can be placed for same-day or next-day shipping. Shipping carriers also apply cut-off times. Orders placed after these cut-off times are processed the next business day, which would extend the delivery date.?

3. Order Processing Time

The time taken to process an order, including picking, packing, and preparing for shipment, affects the EDD. Retailers who offer print-on-demand products need a longer time to process orders, because they need to confirm the design with customers and get it printed. Efficient order processing systems that can reduce delays and improve delivery accuracy.

4. Transport Methods

The mode of transport (by road, sea, rail or air) significantly influences the delivery date. For example, air transport is much faster than sea transport but might be more expensive. Multimodal transport, combining different modes, can be used to optimize delivery times based on cost and speed.

5. Shipping Services

Different carriers and their service levels (standard, express, overnight) lead to varying delivery times. Selecting the appropriate service level based on urgency and cost considerations is crucial for online retailers to meet customer expectations.

6. Transport Distance

The distance between the shipping origin and destination directly impacts the delivery date. Longer distances generally result in longer transit times. For example, speaking of air transport, shipping from China to the USA generally takes longer than shipping from China to the UK.

7. Customs Clearance

For international shipments, customs clearance can cause delays. Efficient documentation and compliance with regulations can expedite this process and improve delivery date accuracy. As the U.S. Customs & Border Protection (CBP) tried to curb exploitation of de minimis rules of small-value e-commerce orders, and numerous parcels stuck at the customs.

8. Bank Holidays & Peak Seasons

Public holidays and peak seasons (e.g., Christmas, Black Friday) often lead to increased shipping volumes and potential delays. Planning and communication are key to managing customer expectations during these periods.

9. Weather Conditions

Adverse weather conditions can disrupt transportation networks, causing delays. Incorporating weather forecasts into delivery estimates can help in providing more accurate estimated delivery dates.

10. Customers’ Delivery Preferences

Preferences such as specific delivery time slots or locations (e.g., delivery to a nearby drop-off point) can influence the EDD. Integrating these preferences into the logistics system ensures that customer expectations are met.

How to Improve Accuracy of Delivery Date Estimates?

1. Implement Real-time Inventory Tracking

Utilizing real-time inventory tracking systems ensures that stock levels are always up-to-date, reducing delays caused by stockouts and backorders. This allows for more accurate delivery estimates.

2. Use Shipment Tracking Software to Draw Insights

Leveraging advanced shipment tracking software like TrackingMore can provide valuable insights into carrier performance, service levels, and destination-specific transit times. The shipment analytics provided by the software can help optimize the delivery date estimates.

3. Define Shipping Zones and Create Transit Time Maps

Creating a detailed transit time map based on defined shipping zones can help communicate and optimize the prediction of delivery times. This involves segmenting destinations into zones with specific transit timeframes. As some carriers don’t support deliveries to remote areas, you may visualize the differences so that your customers can easily know the differences.

4. Take Into Account the Order Processing Volume

Monitoring order processing volumes and taking effective measures (e.g. hire temporary workers), especially during peak times, ensure that orders are processed promptly. Additionally, you can also optimize processing efficiency and minimize delays by implementing automated systems.

5. Integrate with Carriers to Track Delivery Preferences

Collaborating with carriers to track and accommodate customer delivery preferences, such as preferred time slots or delivery locations, enhances the accuracy of EDDs. This requires seamless integration with carrier systems.

6. Adopt Advanced Technology

Utilizing advanced technologies such as weather intelligent systems and last-mile delivery tracking can provide real-time updates and predictive insights. This is because these technologies help anticipate and mitigate potential delays to improve the accuracy of delivery date estimates.?

7. Continuously Improve Your Algorithms

Regularly updating and refining delivery estimation algorithms based on historical data, performance metrics, and emerging trends ensures ongoing accuracy. Machine learning models can enhance predictive capabilities over time.

FAQ About Estimated Delivery Date

I didn’t receive my Amazon order by the estimated delivery date. What can I do??

If your Amazon order hasn't arrived by the estimated delivery date, you can check the tracking information provided by Amazon. If there are no updates, contact Amazon customer service for assistance. They can provide updates or offer solutions such as refunds or replacements.

How accurate is UPS estimated delivery time??

UPS estimated delivery times are generally reliable but can vary based on factors, such as weather, customs delays, and high shipping volumes. Tracking your package through the UPS website or app allows you to get the up-to-date delivery status.

Can UPS estimated delivery time change??

Yes, UPS estimated delivery times can change due to unforeseen circumstances such as delays in transit, weather conditions, or operational issues. It's important to monitor the tracking updates for the latest information.

Does FedEx hold packages until the estimated delivery date??

FedEx does not typically hold packages until the estimated delivery date. They aim to deliver as soon as possible within the estimated timeframe. However, specific services like FedEx Ground may have scheduled delivery dates.

Is FedEx estimated delivery date accurate??

Like UPS, FedEx generally offers accurate estimated delivery dates but this can be affected by factors like weather, peak shipping seasons, and operational disruptions. You may use the official FedEx tracking tool or a third-party shipment tracking website to stay informed of the most accurate delivery information.

Summary

In summary, the accuracy of the Estimated Delivery Date (EDD) is critical for reducing cart abandonment, improving conversion rates, and enhancing customer satisfaction. Understanding the common factors affecting it, such as stock availability, transport methods, and weather conditions, is essential for improving your delivery date estimation algorithms. I hope that you’ll find the above-mentioned tips helpful for you to communicate and improve the accuracy of estimated delivery dates.

I’m Clooney, CEO and founder of TrackingMore. You’re always welcome to connect with me on LinkedIn.