How to Implement Future Scenario Planning in App Development

Have you ever pondered what the future may bring or how the world may alter in the decades to come? Indeed, the majority of us do, and daydreaming about the future is quite common among people.?

There are numerous motion pictures about time travel, Mars colonization, and flying cars. Although we can never accurately predict the future, we can always make assumptions about it.?

This process of understanding current trends and using them to forecast potential outcomes is known in the app development industry as "future scenario planning."

With trends shifting quickly, the future may be unpredictable, and it is getting harder to predict which apps will be game-changing and innovative in a few years. The main objective of future scenario planning is to predict the kinds of apps that will close gaps and offer a solution to a current issue.?

Over the years, the majority of development firms have adopted standardized processes for creating products and apps, which include cross-functional development teams, disciplined timelines, rigorous design reviews, and "gates" to decision-making. These app development procedures are effective, but they do not maximize value creation.?

We will delve into the function of future scenario planning in this article in order to generate fresh concepts for cutting-edge apps that satisfy market demands.

What is scenario planning for the future?

Making predictions about the future and how the business environment might change in light of those predictions is known as "future scenario planning."

Future scenario planning, to put it simply, is the process of speculating about the future and how it might affect the current business environment. With the help of future scenario planning, it is possible to identify a number of unknowns and various "realities" of what might occur in the future and how different factors might affect businesses.?

How does planning future scenarios aid in the creation of apps?

Future scenario planning has many benefits, particularly when it comes to app development. Mainly:

1. If there is a shift or an opportunity in the market, future scenario planning offers fresh ideas for applications or solutions.
2. It assists in preparing decision-makers for change by educating them about the various scenarios that could have an impact on a business in the future.
3. It aids in better preparing the group for course changes.

Widening perspectives

Future-focused scenarios assist programmers in seeing the big picture, thinking creatively, and searching for opportunities outside the confines of their application's current capabilities. Creating innovative ideas requires a thorough understanding of upcoming technological and market trends.?

Scenarios for future exploration

The process for developing four potential future scenarios and determining the best course of action consists of four steps. Once the driving forces and significant uncertainties for the upcoming months or even years have been identified, the goal is to establish four different scenarios that are most likely to occur.?

The most effective method for addressing these four steps is brainstorming, where a whole team can collaborate to find influencing factors.

Let's examine the four procedures for identifying potential future scenarios below.

1. Identify driving forces

A critical first step in creating future scenarios is the identification of the driving forces. To better understand the forces at work, you should discuss the significant shifts in society, the economy, politics, the law, technology, and the environment with your team. It's known as a PESTLE analysis.?

Discuss with your team how these changes might affect your company once you've identified these variables. These adjustments could come in the form of new political legislation, calamities, rising commodity prices, and other things as well.?

For instance, as a result of the Huawei-US ban, new smartphones could no longer access Google and Android applications, forcing the company to develop new apps and an alternative OS.?

Nobody expected this outcome, but Huawei may have anticipated it in their own scenario planning.

2. Specify dangerous uncertainties

Select the top two uncertainties for your company and industry after your team has created a list of potential driving forces. For instance, economic and technological factors, such as a pandemic-related recession and swift technological advancements, can serve as warning signs for SaaS businesses. Around these two uncertainties, your team can begin to define conceivable scenarios. For instance, new legislation and changing regulations present ongoing uncertainties for Shopify app developers.?

3. Construct conceivable scenarios

The objective at this point is to create a kind of matrix, with your two primary uncertainties acting as the axes. Based on the course that each uncertainty will take, you can now depict four possible future outcomes.?

The technology and economics from our SaaS example above can then be used to shift each element on the matrix in a positive or negative direction. For instance, four different scenarios could occur depending on the positive or negative outcomes of each uncertainty, as shown in the illustration above.?

The goal of the cone of plausibility is to graphically illustrate the relationship between the current moment and the likelihood of the events we expect to happen.

The cone of plausible futures is another tool your team can use to better comprehend potential future scenarios. The cone of plausibility is designed to graphically represent the relationship between the current moment in time and the likelihood of our expectations of potential events. It provides a helpful visual heuristic for app developers planning future scenarios, but as the illustration shows, the more we try to plan for the future, the more potential outcomes there are.?

For upcoming scenario narratives, you should try to create two or three contrasting scenarios.?

A "wild card" scenario should also be considered when planning. Wild cards, as opposed to plausible ones, are unexpected events that offer new perspectives on your company. The main goal is to broaden your perspective and take into account potential surprises that could have an impact on you in the future.

4. Go over the results and directions

Once you have four potential futures, it's time to decide which, based on the current trends, is more likely to happen. It's crucial to think of ideas and solutions for each potential future situation rather than concentrating on just one.?

This can be accomplished by holding a number of workshops and interacting with your team to suggest an app development plan. Understanding potential challenges and preparing the entire team to adjust to changing circumstances are crucial.?

For instance, many SaaS businesses are compelled to create programs that can boost the economy while lowering costs in the event of a recession accompanied by a pandemic and technological advancement. Given the market need, there is a chance for a new app idea in this situation.?

In contrast, tech companies might get a lot of funding to foster innovation if the world managed to contain the pandemic before the recession hit and the economy stabilized.?

In such a situation, there would be more competition, which would encourage SaaS providers to start innovating and creating distinct applications that would compete in the market.

Including potential futures in your planning

There are additional things to keep in mind after future scenarios have been written. You and your group should start by asking the following queries about each potential scenario:

• What's the issue?
• What is the solution I suggest?
• Who will be an early adopter and who are my target customers?
• Which metrics are important?
• What makes your business idea unique in terms of value?
• Which revenue sources and what is the cost structure?

What media should be used to advertise the application?

Filling out the Lean Canvas is one way to respond to all of these queries. The lengthy business plans that are rarely updated and hardly ever read are a thing of the past thanks to the Lean Canvas.?

Your team will be able to come up with solutions to issues before they even arise by including your future scenarios in this business plan.

When developing future apps, beginning with the prototyping phase and continuing through development, you can also take into account these factors and the solutions that correspond to them.?

Conclusion

Even though it is a labor-intensive process that necessitates extensive research and brainstorming, future scenario planning aids businesses in creating more effective app development strategies. By incorporating future scenario planning into your app development strategy, your business can steer clear of any unforeseen situations and be better equipped to deal with change. Furthermore, scenario planning is a fantastic team-building activity that benefits from the perspectives of all team members. I hope that this article provided you with a thorough introduction to future scenario planning in order to create fresh solutions to ever-changing needs.?