How Ignoring Pollen Data Hurts Your Allergy Medication Sales

Pharma players, we have found something you cannot afford to miss–

80% of incremental OTC allergy drug sales are potentially MISSED during moderate-high pollen periods.

However, this shouldn’t be the case if you think about it.

As pollen levels spike, so do allergy symptoms – which should naturally lead to a surge in sales. When you factor in the shifting pollen seasons, the rise in self-medication, and the growing Rx-to-OTC transitions, the allergy category seems primed for growth.

So why are you likely to lose sales when pollen spikes?

The answer, we’ve found out, doesn’t lie in the product or its positioning but in how the demand planning for allergy drugs is carried out.

Here’s what is happening–

Traditional demand forecasting systems are climate-blind

A few months ago, we looked into publicly available sales data from a leading European pharmacy and modeled it with our historical pollen data to understand how closely they affect each other.?

We found a 71% correlation between pollen spikes and antihistamine sales demand. It was simple enough to explain—the more pollen in the air, the higher the allergy cases and the greater the demand for medication.?

Yet, somehow, even sophisticated forecasting systems are blind to this obvious climate factor.

Forecasting systems are usually built on historical sales data, regional trends, and seasonality—powerful but missing the final, crucial piece of the puzzle—the environment.

Pollen levels vary widely from year to year, and climate patterns can shift demand in ways that traditional forecasts just don’t capture. Relying only on past trends creates a disconnect between inventory levels and the actual on-ground demand–leading to your product not being available when the consumer needs it the most.

As an allergy drug manufacturer or retail pharmacy manager, if you’re planning demand sans climate, this is what you’re likely to face

But is pollen data the right solution to this problem?

Seeing the gap, we tested our hypothesis: What if pollen data could be integrated into allergy medication forecasting? Could this hidden climate factor solve the problem??

The results? A remarkable 42% upliftment in forecasting accuracy compared to traditional methodology, which avoids pollen levels. The guesswork was gone; pollen data showed promise to transform inventory management from reactive to predictive.

Our firsthand experience with climate data shows how climate signals can make a real difference for pharma businesses. This discovery allows pharma companies and pharmacy retailers to turn missed opportunities into real revenue gains, ensuring that customers find the relief they need precisely when they need it.

Are you curious about what climate data could do for your allergy sales?

We’ve developed a climate-driven demand planning solution to turn these lost opportunities into revenue for you, using our expertise in climate data.

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Well, if you're the type who enjoys reading, Nandini Shivraj has an in-depth study for you. This study sheds more light on the changing demand and some of the early results from our solution.

But if a chat works better for you, feel free to reach out to Jaideep Singh Bachher , Agam S Bhatia or Sainath P (SP) —they’re here to help!

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