How I would have predicted every European Championship: The 2000s

We have finally found ourselves in the 21st century and more importantly, in the years where I was actually alive. But unfortunately I seriously do not have any memory of either Euro 2004 or 2008 so this would be the last of this series where I would just be speculating. After the 90s gave us pretty dull tournaments, this new millennium saw the sixteen team format (the best Euros format) and the back pass rule come together to give us perhaps three of the greatest European Championships. The decade started and ended with the crowning of two of the greatest sides of the modern day. Sandwiched in between is the greatest underdog story of the competition's history, when the tournament was arguably at its most competitive in terms of the overall standard of opposition. Pretty much the tournament's greatest decade. Let's see how I would have predicted them.

Euro 2000: Netherlands

Actual Winners: France

This was another tough one to call. Spain, England, Portugal and especially Italy all had strong squads; and despite the Germans evidently declining, you could never write them off. But the leading candidates were World Cup holders France and tournament hosts the Netherlands; and I know I would have just fancied the hosts more. The Dutch were much fancied heading into Euro 96 on the back of Ajax's success in Europe with a stunning young crop of talent under Louis van Gaal. But the fact that they needed a playoff to qualify and that the camp always looked like it was going to implode (which it did) turned me off from taking their chances seriously. But by 2000, that generation was in its prime with Van Der Saar, Michael Reiziger, Ronald and Frank De Boer, Clarence Seedorf, Edgar Davids, Marc Overmars and Patrick Kluivert now all seasoned professionals. Kluivert in particular at just 23 was looking like he would explode at this tournament. He had just come off his most prolific season yet with 25 goals in all competitions for Barcelona. With the likes of Dennis Bergkamp supplying him and an equally prolific Roy Makaay waiting in the wings, this team had bags of goals. And this is without even mentioning the supply of goals they had from the back with the likes of Jaap Stam and Giovanni van Bronckhorst. They had talent coming out of their ears.

The only genuine weakness about this team was their manager Frank Rijkaard. This was literally his first job in senior management and there were genuine doubts about his capabilities especially since the Netherlands were in a tough group consisting of surprise Euro 96 finalists the Czech Republic, who had only gotten better since then, and...France. So it would be intriguing to see how he would handle such tests so soon. But I think the fact that he played with many of the Ajax contingent under Van Gaal in 1995 and that international football especially in the 21st century tends to require a motivator rather than a tactician, would’ve given me enough faith in Rijkaard. Lastly, their biggest advantage over France was their status as co-hosts. Every single host up until this point had at least made the top four and so far being a host had turned unfancied teams like Sweden in 92 into good teams and good teams like France in 84 into great teams. Heck, France had that benefit two years earlier with an inferior squad, so at this point I would see that working against them and for the Dutch.

This definitely would have been the most painful prediction because I would have been so close. They managed to win their group with a 100% record, defeating France 3-2 (although both played rotated lineups) and dooming them to a tie against Spain. In the quarters they absolutely smashed Yugoslavia 6-1 with Kluivert bagging a hat trick and eventually winning the Golden Boot with five goals. It looked like the final would be a titanic showdown against France ... ..until the Italians ruined it in the most Italian way possible: sitting deep and relying on a Dutch choke of epic proportions to win on penalties. This was and is France's greatest ever side but I am still not sure they would have beaten this Dutch side at their home in the final. But you know, if wishes were horses...I just have to take this as my fourth consecutive miss.

Challengers: France

As said before, this is France's greatest ever side, and quite comfortably. Their Euro 84 and World Cup 98 squads were special but they both had glaring weaknesses up front. This side meanwhile had David Trezeguet, Nicolas Anelka, Sylvain Wiltord and Thierry Henry to choose from. Then there was the rest of the squad which was made up of their World Cup winning contingent but with added experience. Fabian Barthez, although erratic, was at his peak and France's greatest goalkeeper in my opinion. Their backline of Thuram, Desailly, Blanc and Lizarazu was the best in the world. Their midfield, though not as great as the Carré Magique, still had the likes of skipper Didier Deschamps, Vieira, Petit, Djorkaeff and of course, Zinedine Zidane, who despite coming off a difficult season with Juventus was still more than capable of coming alive within a tournament setting. In terms of weaknesses they never really had any wingers. They could only rely on Pires (not the worst option to have), along with width provided by Henry’s shuttling runs from left to right as the striker.

In the end, I should have never doubted them. Despite losing to the Dutch, they showed their class against tough opposition by defeating Spain and Portugal with Zidane standing out in both and deserving of his mantle as the tournament's best player, following in the footsteps of Platini. In the final against the Italians, they showed that they were everything this talented Dutch side were not. A goal down against a stubborn Italian backline, they proved that they had the grit and depth of talent to break them down and clinch their second Euros, as goals from substitutes Wiltord and Trezeguet (perhaps the most iconic goal of the Euros) turned the tie around. One of the greatest sides at least in modern history, and I managed to miss them lol.

Euro 2004: Italy

Actual Winners: Greece?!

Another stinker here! Euro 2004 was such a curious tournament. It had such an abundance of talent with the likes of France, Italy, England, Portugal, the Netherlands and even the Czech Republic all simultaneously producing their "Golden Generations." But the team that won it was Greece! The most surprising champions in the history of the Euros! At least Denmark had world class players in Schmeichel and Brian Laudrup, but this Greece side had no one of such calibre. Basically, all I am saying is that if you predicted Greece to win Euro 2004 then you are either a deluded Greek or you are lying. Regardless of this, my decision to pick Italy would’ve aged like fine milk. But there was good reason to fancy this side. This was two years before they would go on to win the World Cup and, player for player, they were arguably the strongest side. Obviously their defence was rock solid, which has proved time and again to be a useful tool in tournament football. Sure, Maldini was gone but Buffon was back after missing Euro 2000, and they still had Zambrotta, Nesta and skipper Cannavarro operating at the peak of their game. In midfield they had the creativity of a remodeled Pirlo mixed in with the combativeness of Gattuso. In attack, well…take your pick. Pipo Inzaghi was out injured but they could still call on Vieri, Del Piero, a young and exciting Cassano and Francesco Totti who was their talisman, coming off his highest scoring season yet for Roma.

All in all it looked like Italy had the perfect combo of an impenetrable defence mixed in with a formidable attack that could grind out the necessary results required to win a major tournament. In reality, Totti did not turn out to be the man to inspire the Italians instead spitting at Christian Poulsen in their first game which saw him banned until the semi finals. The game ended 0-0, and this brings me to their second issue which was the overly-cautious approach of Giovanni Trapattoni. In the next game against Sweden, whilst 1-0 up, he decided to protect the lead rather than trust in his attacking quality. This would have been fine if not for Ibrahimovi? scoring one of the great Euro goals late on to equalise. Lastly, there was the Scandinavian "conspiracy." With Sweden, Denmark and Italy all having drawn with each other, a 2-2 draw for Sweden and Denmark would be enough to send both through at the expense of the Italians no matter how heavily they spanked group minnows Bulgaria. You’ll never guess what the final score was! Italy called it match fixing but in reality both Sweden and Denmark played with the intention to win it, registering nearly thirty shots between them and only really settled for the point after Sweden made it 2-2 in the 89th minute. Even with the supposed conspiracy (which doesn't exist) this Italian side had no excuse to be in such a situation in the first place considering the core of this team went on to win the World Cup two years later. They only had themselves to blame.

Challengers: France

England’s Golden Generation and hosts Portugal missed out due to my judgment that there were better candidates and, specifically in the case of Portugal, my suspicion that they might choke like the Dutch did four years earlier in front of their home crowd once the going got tough (which turned out to be true). Because of that, I would have landed on France...again. After a disastrous defence of their World Cup crown France came back swinging, qualifying as the only side with a 100% record, the best attack (29 goals) and best defence (conceding just 2). Player for player, it was them and Italy that had the strongest squads making it not so surprising that these two would face off at the World Cup final two years later. From midfield onwards, they were arguably better with Makélélé providing the best midfield cover in the world for prime Vieira and Zinedine Zidane to control things. Up front, they had their pick of Saha, Trezeguet, Wiltord, Pires and prime Thierry Henry who I would have fancied for the Golden Boot considering he bagged 30 league goals for an Invincible Arsenal alongside Pires, Vieira and Wiltord.

A genuine question mark was aging defence which had been woefully exposed two years earlier most notably by the speed of Senegal. Thuram (32), Desailly (35) and Lizarazu (34) still remained with Barthez (32) in goal despite having fallen out of favour at Old Trafford and at this point playing back in France with Marseille. The still fresh memory of their implosion in 2002 simply wouldn’t have inspired any confidence in me. I would not have expected anything similar obviously but their cloak of invincibility had gone and I would have expected any of the elite sides, particularly England in their first group game, to play with no fear and eventually get the better of them. I would’ve just thought that the side to do it would be Italy.

I was kind of right in the end. Their defence was run ragged by an 18 year old Wayne Rooney in their opening game but the class of Zidane took them through. They managed to top their group and grab an "easy" matchup against Greece but in one of the biggest upsets in Euros history they failed to threaten them and fell to a 1-0 defeat. In perhaps the greatest defensive display in Euros history, especially in the knockout stage, Greece, who had not yet won a game of football at the Euros went on to win the entire thing. They shut out and eliminated the defending champions, the team of the tournament Czech Republic, and the hosts Portugal along the way. Because of that, I am not even bothered that I got this wrong. Well, kinda; that Italy shout was horrific. But Greece winning makes me feel more at ease about my recent 0-5 record.

Euro 2008: Spain

Actual Winners: Spain

Finally, my first accurate prediction since 1984. It only took twenty-four years. At first, this looks obvious. This was the beginning of tiki-taka and this Spanish side was definitely the most entertaining to watch but they were not the outright favourites heading into it. In fact if you asked me in the aftermath of Euro 2004 after a group stage exit in the hands of Greece, I would not have rated Spain's chances. They appointed Luis Aragonés after the disastrous tournament and basically that was like when England appointed Sam Allardyce after Euro 2016. A safe, uninspiring, "back to basics'' manager when Spanish football was known more for its physicality. But by 2008 it became clear that he was more than that. At his core, he was a pragmatist, and he realised that Spain were producing a generation of slight technical midfielders with Xavi, Iniesta, Silva, Cazorla and Fàbregas, and fast strikers that prefer balls in behind compared to crosses like Torres and Villa. So instead he tailored the system to them and that was how the Spanish tiki-taka system was born before Pep Guardiola. A lot more direct, a lot less structured and a lot more fun to watch. They were great at the 2006 World Cup, storming through the groups with eight goals scored (the most), one conceded and a 100% record, and they were unfortunate to be knocked out by France thanks to an inspired performance from a young Ribéry. By 2008, they were two years older, and Fernando Torres in particular was in the form of his life, seamlessly adapting to Liverpool with 33 goals in his first season. With the creativity behind him, he would’ve been my bet for the Golden Boot.

Their main weakness to me would be themselves. A lot like England now, they only had their Euro 64 triumph to look to, and despite their clubs dominating the continent, their national side consistently underachieved. But Euro 2008 was a great opportunity for them to grab a major trophy because pretty much all of the elite sides were in transitional periods. And of course England had not even qualified. Spain were in transition themselves but their squad looked the best and if there was any time to break this generational curse then this was it. Out of all the Germany, Netherlands, Italys, and France sides to play against, these would probably be the ones they would’ve fancied themselves against the most.

In the end, Spain won resoundingly. Torres had a surprisingly quiet campaign only scoring twice, though of course his second was the iconic winning goal in the final against Germany. His strike partner, David Villa, was the one who won the Golden Boot with four goals but it was Xavi and Marcos Senna who were Spain's standouts. Senna performed the necessary destructive role while Xavi truly showed the world for the first time that he was not just a good player but a generational talent. Just like my Euro 64 prediction, this Spanish side turned out a lot better than expected. A whole lot better in fact, as this began a five year reign of dominance that we have never quite seen in international football before or since.

Challengers: Germany

It has been a while but Germany's back. Remember when I said that their group stage exit as West Germany in Euro 84 was seen as a "crisis"? By the early 2000s they DEFINITELY were in a crisis. Two group stage exits in Euro 2000 and 2004 sandwiched a very fortunate World Cup final appearance thanks to an indomitable Oliver Kahn, and a humiliating 5-1 home defeat to England. This forced a revamp of German football famously termed "Das Reboot" by the German FA which bore fruit by the late 2000s with the likes of Lahm, Podolski, Schweinsteiger and Mertesacker putting in a strong 3rd place finish at home during the 2006 World Cup. This side did have a nice blend of youth and experience with Lehmann, Klose and skipper Michael Ballack being the more senior figures. Ballack in particular was their talisman. An all action midfielder who could pretty much do anything but was extremely injury prone. His second season at Chelsea was blighted by injuries but he came back in the second half and managed to grab 7 goals in 18 games to lead Chelsea to a second place finish and a Champions League final.

Spain and Germany at this time were going through a similar trajectory but I know I would have felt that Spain were just a couple of steps ahead. Germany, for all their improvements, finished second in qualifying to a still impressive but nonetheless declining Czech Republic, losing 3-0 at home to them. This Euros was just one too early for them and Spain definitely had them in midfield so perhaps in a few years time, with midfield reinforcements, the Germans would’ve been my favourites.

In the end, I would’ve been proven right. It was a Spain vs Germany final, the first time my two favourites reached the final since 1972. Yikes! Despite the 1-0 score line, Spain were far superior, only allowing the Germans a single shot on target to their seven. Although Germany were on the same path, this showed that they were a lot further back than expected and Spain were beginning to look like a great team rather than just a good one.

Finally I have gotten one correct at long last! My record is now five in thirteen. It is beginning to look ugly now. This is the penultimate article with the next one being the last three and from now on I have a clear memory of each tournament so there will be no more speculation (ok, for Euro 2012 there will be a bit). Let's see how I actually fared.