How I Use the Theory of Change for Program Learning

Hello and welcome to the 4th edition of Learn Adapt Manage. Thank you to the 1,122 subscribers ?? walking this journey of using #evidence to inform decisions and actions in #internationaldevelopment. Sign up by clicking the Subscribe button in the upper right corner to get future editions directly to your feed.

In the 3rd edition, I shared questions to help you decide if your program's Theory of Change is of good quality and if it can support program learning.

In this edition, I will share how you can start setting up a learning system in your program using the ToC. The article combines my experiences over the years of working with small and large multi-sectoral programs.

The Theory of Change provides a framework for identifying the areas of learning within a program which can be translated into learning questions.

I have a good-quality ToC; what's next?

1) Review the causal pathways between components. Are there any causal relationships that don't have strong supporting evidence? Depending on the complexity of the development program, you may have some causal pathways in your ToC that are yet to be researched or do not have enough supporting evidence. If so, identify those pathways as potential learning or research questions for your program.

2) Review the ToC assumptions. Assumptions present conditions that must stay true for the ToC to work. In most cases, information about the requirements, e.g., the context within which the ToC operates, can be easily tracked through existing external systems. If not, strategies must be identified to generate data to monitor the conditions and validate the assumptions.

3) Review program activities. The quality of implementation matters. I'll share an example to explain this point to you. Let's say you have identified training of farmers on appropriate farm techniques as an activity. Most M&E systems will track output indicators, e.g., the number of farmers trained, and the associated outcome indicators, e.g., the number of farmers applying the promoted farming techniques. In doing this, we miss the opportunity to assess the quality of the training, which can influence the uptake or lack thereof of the farming techniques. Collecting evidence on the quality of our activities allows us to learn quickly and take the necessary actions, e.g., adapting the delivery mechanisms.

4) Review the elements of the ToC that are necessary for the sustainability of outcomes. In my most recent program, we relied on four factors critical to sustainability: resources, capacity, motivation, and linkages. Effective Sustainability and Exit Strategies for USAID FFP Development Food Assistance Projects contains more information on the sustainability elements. The conditions under which the program outcomes will be sustained should be reflected in the ToC through the interconnection of the causal pathways, the actors involved, the delivery mechanisms, or the assumptions/conditions. For the program to increase the likelihood of sustainability, there is a need to track signs and limitations early on.

I have identified some areas of interest; then what?

The next step is to prioritize the areas your program learning will focus on. Prioritization is a challenging activity, and it is not a one-size-fits-all type of activity. In this case, I will list some factors you can consider as you prioritize your program learning focus.

1. Aim of learning: Are you learning to contribute to the existing knowledge in your sector? To improve implementation? To influence the design of future programs? To influence policy?
2. Other evidence sources: Will the existing M&E system collect data that can be used to fill in some of the evidence gaps? Are there other implementing partners in the areas of implementation generating evidence on the same questions you have? Are research institutions in your area covering some of the topics?
3. Available resources: budget, human resources, program length.
4. Technical expertise: Do you have the required technical knowledge within the team or at an organizational level to collect, analyze, and present the information in a user-friendly manner?

I have prioritized the areas my program learning will focus on; what's next?

Now, you are very close to pinning down a program learning agenda...in the next edition of Learn Adapt Manage, we will explore how to write a learning agenda for your program based on your priority areas.

In this edition, I walked us through a ToC review process of identifying and prioritizing some critical areas that your program can focus on as part of the program learning agenda; in the next edition, we will focus on writing a learning agenda for your program.

Thank you?? for reading! What are your key takeaways from this edition? Please let me know in the comments section below ?? and share this newsletter with others you think would benefit.

Florence Randari?is a Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) professional who seeks to provide evidence-based guidance to international development actors so that they can achieve sustainable development. She is also a Collaboration, Learning, and Adaptation (CLA) practitioner seeking to empower all implementors with the required knowledge and skills to apply CLA principles in their day-to-day work.