How the Hungarian Grid Can Support the EV Revolution: Insights and Strategies

As Europe accelerates towards electric mobility, concerns about the capability of national power grids to handle the rising demand from electric vehicle (EV) charging are increasingly in the spotlight. Hungary, like many other nations, is at the early stages of this transition, with a relatively low percentage of electric vehicles in its fleet. Yet, questions are already being raised about the grid's capacity to sustain this evolution without significant upgrades. This article explores these concerns in the Hungarian context, leveraging grid data and real-world experience in the petroleum retail sector to suggest a path forward.

Disclaimer: The calculations presented in this article are intended to provide a strategic, bird's-eye view of grid availability and electric vehicle (EV) charging potential. They should be considered as back-of-the-envelope calculations rather than detailed scientific research. While these estimates offer valuable insights for large-scale planning, they may not capture all the nuances and specifics required for localized grid management.

Hungarian Grid Capacity: Room for Growth

Hungary's power grid has a maximum capacity of 7,500 MW, a figure reached without causing any blackouts—a clear indication of the grid’s robustness. When analyzing the mean load on the grid, even with a 25% safety margin included, it is evident that Hungary has significant unused capacity (as shown in the graphs below).

Weekday and Weekend Grid Availability:

• On weekdays, there is considerable available capacity during nighttime and midday periods. This availability suggests a potential for strategic EV charging during these off-peak times, reducing the risk of grid congestion.
• Over weekends, grid availability increases even further, particularly during the night and middle of the day. With nearly 42,000 MWh of capacity available over the weekend, there is ample opportunity to distribute EV charging more evenly across time periods.

Given Hungary's approximately 4 million passenger cars, and assuming each car drives 15,000 km per year at a consumption rate of 16 kWh per 100 km, the total annual electricity demand for EVs would be around 10 million MWh. This equates to roughly 26,000 MWh per day, a demand well within the grid's handling capacity when appropriately managed.

However, it's important to note that averages may not always reflect conditions at every point on the grid. While they provide a good indication for large-scale grid planning, localized adjustments might still be necessary to accommodate specific cases.

Comparing Petrol Station Patterns with EV Charging Potential

Having worked extensively with petroleum retail companies, I’ve observed a distinct pattern in consumer behavior: petrol filling tends to align with peak electricity usage times. Petrol stations follow a "wheel-to-well" model, where consumers drive to the station to fill up. This approach concentrates energy demand into a few hours each day, adding stress to the grid during peak times.

Petrol Station vs. Grid Usage:

• The heatmap comparison reveals that petrol station transactions peak at the same time as electricity grid load, indicating that traditional fueling methods compound grid strain during peak periods.

However, EV charging can operate differently. With electricity, we can bring the "well to the wheels." Given that cars are parked 95% of the time, charging can occur during these idle periods, making it a more convenient and efficient process. This shift allows us to distribute the daily or weekly energy needs over 18-20 hours rather than concentrating them into just a couple of hours. With the availability of various digital solutions, this load can be balanced across a large fleet of vehicles, smoothing out peaks and reducing grid strain.

Additionally, if we replicate the traditional filling station patterns with EVs, we risk misusing the opportunity and putting unnecessary pressure on the grid. The industry must leverage available technology to direct load to the times of day when capacity is most available, whether through technology, dynamic pricing, or various incentives and promotional mechanisms.

The Challenge of Fast Charging Infrastructure

While the flexibility of EV charging presents opportunities, there are also challenges, particularly with fast charging infrastructure. Consider a typical fast-charging station with 5x2 350 kW chargers. If not properly managed, such a station could require up to 3,500 kW of capacity. However, the effective charging speed that the car or the battery can accept from the chargers is typically only 60-100 kW. Even with a 30% utilization rate—an optimistic figure—the hourly energy purchased is often below 250 kWh, utilizing less than 7% of the allocated capacity.

V2H (Vehicle-to-Home) Solutions:

• Another promising approach to managing peaks is Vehicle-to-Home (V2H) technology, where EVs can power homes during peak electricity demand periods. By charging during the day at workplaces or public chargers, EVs can avoid the high costs and grid strain associated with evening fast charging.

Strategic Charging for a Balanced Grid

To ensure that the Hungarian grid can support the growing number of EVs, a strategic approach to charging is essential:

• Distributed Charging: Encourage a balanced charging schedule that avoids peak grid hours. Time-of-use tariffs can play a crucial role in shifting charging to off-peak periods.
• Home and Office Charging: Promote home charging at night when grid demand is lower, and workplace charging during the day when there is excess capacity. This approach not only alleviates grid stress but also maximizes convenience for EV owners.
• Public and Fast Charging: While fast chargers are necessary, they should be strategically placed in areas with high grid availability. These chargers should supplement rather than replace home and workplace charging, ensuring they don’t contribute to peak hour grid congestion.

Looking Ahead: Resilience and Smart Grids

For the Hungarian grid to remain resilient in the face of growing EV adoption, ongoing investment in smart grid technologies is imperative. These technologies can dynamically manage EV charging loads, integrate renewable energy sources, and enhance the grid's overall flexibility. Moreover, long-term planning is essential as EV adoption increases, and heavier vehicles like buses and trucks begin to electrify, further adding to the grid's demands.

It is also important to recognize that renewable energy sources, like solar, are often most abundant when demand is low. A fleet of EVs could potentially serve as one of the largest energy storage systems available. For context, Hungary's fleet of approximately 4 million vehicles, each with an average 70 kWh battery, represents a potential storage capacity of 280,000 MWh. This is substantial compared to the current Hungarian solar capacity, which is around 4,000 MWh. By effectively utilizing this massive storage potential, EVs could play a crucial role in balancing energy supply and demand, especially as the share of renewables grows.

However, ensuring the grid's stability and maximizing these opportunities requires more than just the involvement of Charge Point Operators (CPOs). Other key players in the electrification journey, including cities, energy producers, and distributors, must be fully integrated into the strategy. Policymakers need to ensure that these entities, which have traditionally been less consumer-focused, are brought up to speed and aligned with the needs of a modern, electrified transportation system. Proper harmonization and strategic collaboration among these stakeholders are essential to balancing the grid, supporting renewable energy integration, and ensuring a smooth transition to a sustainable future.

Conclusion

Vehicle electrification in Hungary presents both challenges and opportunities. If traditional fueling patterns are replicated, the grid could face significant strain, necessitating costly upgrades. However, with strategic planning, these challenges can be turned into opportunities to enhance grid efficiency and resilience.

Hungary's grid has the capacity to support growing EV demand, but success hinges on careful coordination across all stakeholders, including cities, energy producers, and distributors. The flexibility of EV charging, coupled with investments in smart grid technologies and innovations like V2H and home energy storage, can unlock new potential.

Achieving the goals set by the Paris Agreement requires every player to recognize and act on their crucial role in this transition. By harmonizing efforts across the energy ecosystem, Hungary can balance its grid, integrate renewable energy more effectively, and ensure a smooth, sustainable shift to electric mobility.

The vast storage capacity of EVs offers a unique opportunity to reshape energy management. Seizing this opportunity will require a collective shift away from legacy practices and toward a dynamic, adaptable approach that aligns with the future of electrified transportation.