How has war in Europe changed the trajectory towards net zero?

In February of this year Russia’s invasion of Ukraine turned European energy strategy on its head. Just a few months previously, world leaders had gathered in Glasgow for COP26 to try and hash out a collective strategy to pull back global warming and reach a consensus on net zero targets. After promising discussions and collective pledges, the dramatic events of this year have made that recent reality seems worlds away.

The dilemma between prioritising energy security and sustainability is the great catch 22 of 2022. The war in Ukraine has resulted in a huge global spike in energy prices as European nations wrestle with their desire to impose tough sanctions on Russia whilst facing the hard facts of their energy dependence. Russian gas represented 40% of the natural gas consumed by the EU in 2021 and with winter looming the EU faces a tough decision. Whilst pledging to stop importing Russian fossil fuels by 2027, the EU wants to continue importing Russian energy until it can increase its capacity from other sources, upping renewable capacity and building LNG facilities.

Russia is showing the strength of its hand by threatening to cut off supplies early, with the EU having its heart in its mouth these last weeks as routine maintenance caused the NORD stream 1 pipeline to shut down, with many fearing it may not start up again. The sharp rise in demand has caused energy prices to skyrocket, with these increases causing a domino effect of inflationary effects.

In the UK, as the conservative party leadership elections show, environmental goals are already starting to fall by the wayside as hopeful candidates try to assuage the party and the electorate with plans to combat the cost of living crisis and energy security. As prices rise across the board, the desire to maintain sustainable practice falls in direct correlation with the population’s ability to support its standard of living. In response to this, many of the Tory candidates have already suggested putting aside 2050 net zero pledges or even, in the case of Liz Truss, advocating for a reversal of the ban on fracking and increased oil exploration in the north sea.

Along with the horrific scenes of social and environmental destruction we are seeing from Ukraine, these dramatic world events are threatening to jeopardise years of progress in environmental standards and sustainable practice. The fact that Europe finds itself in such a desperate position is proof that more should already have been done to wean the west off of GHGs and to increase infrastructure investment in renewable energy.

At this difficult juncture, it has never been more important for social and corporate opinion to stay united. Although some sacrifices may have to be made to insure that there is enough, affordable energy to go round now, the hellish scenes of wildfires and droughts in the latest record breaking heatwave show that we cannot afford to lose sight of our environmental goals.