HOW THE GOVERNMENT OF BRAZIL CAN MAKE SUSTAINABLE AND EXPAND AND MODERNIZE THE TRANSPORT SECTOR
Fernando A.G. Alcoforado
PhD em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional
Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to show how the government of Brazil can make sustainable and expand and ?modernize the country's transport sector, which is composed of highway, railway, waterway, pipeline and airway transport of cargo and people (Figure 1). Urban transport was not considered in this article because it will be dealt with in the next article when the sustainability of cities will be addressed.
Figure 1- Brazil transport matrix
Source: Hijjar, Maria Fernanda e Lobo, Alexandre. Cenário da infraestrutura rodoviária no Brasil. Available on the website ?<https://www.ilos.com.br/web/cenario-da-infraestrutura-rodoviaria-no-brasil/> , 2011
1. The highway transport system in Brazil
Figure 1 shows that the highway modal is responsible for 62.7% of the cargo transported in Brazil, having a unique characteristic, as it travels by any route, transits anywhere, and has a unique flexibility with regard to the route (Figure 2 ). The greater availability of access highway is also an interesting factor that enables the flow of large amounts of cargo in Brazil through this modal. The higher priority given in Brazil to highway transport leads the country to delay its economic development and emit more greenhouse gases than other modes of transport [1].
2. The railway transport system in Brazil
Railway transport is responsible for 21.7% of the cargo transported in Brazil, being carried out by trains composed of wagons that, in turn, are pulled by locomotives that move on rails (Figure 3). The railway modal is known as all transport of people or products/materials carried out through railways in closed wagons, platforms, etc. Railway transport has as its main feature service over long distances and large amounts of cargo with lower insurance and freight costs. However, the flexibility in the path is limited. Brazil has only the tenth largest extension of rails in the world, an approximate total of 29,000 km. In addition to the possibility of transporting large cargo capacity in this mode, it also has a low energy consumption per transported unit [1]. Given the territorial dimension of Brazil, greater priority should be given to the implementation of railways instead of highways in the country.
Figure 2- Map of existing and projected highways in Brazil
Figure 3- Map of existing and projected railways in Brazil
3. Brazil's waterway transport system
Waterway transport is responsible for 11.7% of the cargo transported in Brazil, being the one that uses water to move the means of transport and can be subdivided into different types according to the body of water it uses (maritime transport, which is that takes place over seas and oceans, fluvial that uses rivers usually carried out by boats and lacustrine whose transport is done in lakes and lagoons). Waterway transport is widely used to transport products and people at low cost. It is generally used for transporting large loads over long distances. The low costs of this transport help to improve the commercial value of the products, making them more competitive in the market, since the cost of transport influences the final cost of the product [1] (Figure 4).
Figure 4- Map of the main existing and projected waterways in Brazil
The highest concentration of viable stretches for waterway transport is found in the northern region of the country, where there are large rivers and plains. In all, the waterway network in Brazil has 42,000 km. The main problems of waterways in Brazil are represented by poorly used waterways for the transport of cargo and passengers. The lack of priority for waterway transport leads the country to delay its economic development and emit more greenhouse gases. Among the main Brazilian waterways, two stand out: the Tietê-Paraná Waterway and the Taguari-Guaíba Waterway. The numbers in Brazil reveal that investment for waterways does not reach 3% of the established for highways, according to figures from the National Confederation of Industry (CNI). Brazil invests very little in waterways despite its immense potential [2][3].
The waterway modal is also widely used for cabotage maritime transport internally interconnecting the country's ports and international maritime transport, mainly in the relationship between continents, as it facilitates the access of goods, in addition to having exclusive routes and there are no problems in the transit [4][5].
Figure 5- Map of existing and planned cabotage in Brazil
4. The pipeline transport system in Brazil
Pipeline transport is one in which ducts or hollow cylindrical pipes are used in types of pipes that form lines called pipelines, which are used to transport products from one point to another [1] (Figure 6). Pipeline transport is responsible for 3.8% of the cargo transported in Brazil, which does not have any flexibility, since there is a limitation on the number of products that can use this modal.
Figure 6- Map of pipelines in Brazil
The pipelines are made up of three elements: the deposits (also called terminals) where the cargo is deposited and removed, the pipes through which the product is drained and the joints that make the connection between the pipes. The main products used in pipeline transport are those of fluid materials, such as oil and derivatives, natural gas and alcohol (ethanol). The transport of these materials through the pipelines is carried out by pressure or dragging through a conveyor element. Elements such as gravity are used to transport or are driven by pumping [1].
Many pipelines are underground and underwater, which makes them somewhat safer than other forms of transport. The influence of meteorological factors is also another reason that does not interfere with the pipeline system, as well as the loss of materials, or the possibility of theft, which is reduced due to the security that this transport has. Another advantage is the economy that comes with transport over long distances and has a simplified system for loading and unloading products. Despite the advantages seen above, this transport also has disadvantages such as the chance of causing accidents with great environmental impact with the rupture of the pipelines, since these are in contact with the ground and the sea, which imposes the need for a major financial investment to fix the pipelines and these do not have route changes. This type of transport is not indicated for short distances or small quantities of products. In addition, the tubes cannot carry different types of products, as there is a risk of contamination [6].
In Brazil, the first pipeline was implemented in 1942, in the State of Bahia, which served to connect an experimental refinery to the port [6]. Since then, there has been a great development of this type of transport. Currently, the main pipeline transports that exist in Brazil are:
? The Oil Pipeline between Paulínea and Brasília, which is approximately 995 km long, for the transport of light products, such as oil and ethanol;
? The Ore Pipeline between Mariana and Ponta do Ubu, approximately 395 km long, which transports the iron ore that is removed in Minas Gerais and disposed of in Espírito Santo;
? The Gas Pipeline between Santa Cruz de La Sierra in Bolivia and Canoas, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in Brazil. This gasotudo is known as Gasbol, which transports natural gas extracted in Bolivia to Brazil, passing through several states in the country. It has an extension of 3,150 km.
The transport pipeline system is very useful and reliable for the flow of these products, whether in Brazil or in other countries. Due to its safety, it is widely used, especially over long distances. Despite the high initial investment, pipelines have a low operating cost [6].
5. Brazil's airway transport system
The airway transport system is a transport mode considered mixed, since it can transport cargo and people at the same time. The passenger flow is represented in Figure 7.
Figure 7- Air transport- Flow of passengers from Brazil
All aircraft have structures for transporting luggage and/or cargo. Airway transport is responsible for 0.1% of cargo transported in Brazil, which is carried out by aircraft and can be divided into national and international (Figure 8). These compartments can be mixed (cargo / passenger) or individual, cargo only, passenger only. Airway transport is fast and suitable for urgent goods. Airway transport is a suitable transport for goods with high added value, small volumes or with urgent delivery. Airway transport has some advantages over other modes of transport, as it is faster, in addition to being more viable for shipments such as luggage, spare parts, electronic products, perishable goods, gifts, medicines, samples, etc. Airway transport is also advantageous because it does not require more reinforced packaging, since handling is more careful, as normally its loads are unitized on pallets or even in containers, a procedure that contributes to cost reduction and ease of use of boarding and disembarking. On the other hand, there are disadvantages, such as having a lower load capacity, high freight costs compared to other modes and the high cost of its infrastructure [1].
Figure 8- Air cargo transport in Brazil in 2019
Source: https://sme.goiania.go.gov.br/conexaoescola/ensino_fundamental/geografia-modais-de-transporte/
6. The port system in Brazil
The ports in Brazil are places where the movement, storage and transshipment of cargo received from trucks, trains and ships take place, in addition to embarking and disembarking passengers (Figure 9). They are one of the links in a transport matrix that has national and worldwide coverage. Brazil has a total of 175 cargo port facilities, including maritime ports and terminals and fluvial facilities [7][8]. We have ports along our coast and inland using our extensive watersheds. Brazil has 99 ports and maritime terminals along our coast. There are 76 terminals inland, off the coast. Of these terminals, 18 are in the South Region, 6 in the Midwest Region and 52 in the North Region. The main ports in Brazil are, in order, Santos in S?o Paulo, Paranaguá in Paraná, Itapoá and Portonave in Santa Catarina, Rio Grande in Rio Grande do Sul, Dp World Santos in S?o Paulo, Chibat?o in Amazonas, Suape in Pernambuco , Itajaí in Santa Catarina, and Rio de Janeiro in Rio de Janeiro.
Figure 9- Map of the main sea and river ports in Brazil
On February 25, 1993, Law No. 8,630 (Port Modernization Law) was enacted, giving room for privatizations through contracts or leases in the sector, for the exploration of organized ports and port facilities in Brazil. The current port exploration model includes six main figures:
? Organized Ports: belong to the Union and are managed by public agents. Most of the service is provided by private port operators in facilities leased through a bidding process.
? Exclusive Use Private Terminals (TUP-E): these are private assets established upon authorization, formalized by an adhesion contract, that is, without public bidding or grant payment. They may be constructed solely for handling the terminal holder's cargo.
? Private Terminals for Mixed Use (TUP-M): these are private assets established upon authorization. They move cargo belonging to the terminal owner and third parties, in a subsidiary manner, in accordance with current legislation.
? Small Public Port Installations (IP4): this is a facility for mooring regional vessels for transporting goods and people, as well as ferries for transporting cargo.
? Cargo Transshipment Stations (ETC): is considered, according to ANTAQ resolution 2520, a “port facility located outside the area of the organized port, used exclusively for the transshipment operation of cargo destined for or coming from inland navigation”.
? Private Tourism Terminals (iPTur): port facility operated with authorization and used for boarding, disembarking and transit of passengers, crew and luggage, and inputs for provisioning and supplying tourism vessels.
The 11 main Brazilian ports in cargo handling are Rio Grande (RS), Paranaguá (PR), Vitória (ES), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Santos (SP), Itajaí (SC), S?o Francisco do Sul ( SC), Sepetiba (RJ), Salvador (BA), Aratu (BA) and Itaqui (MA), which together account for 89% of Brazilian exports. Goods movement data in Brazilian ports in the first half of 2020 reached 221.15 million tons of cargo. According to the National Agency for Waterway Transportation (ANTAC), the busiest cargoes in this period were, in order, solid bulk (60.75%), containers (19.89%), liquid bulk (14.59%) and loose load (4.77%). Most ports suffer from a lack of draft, that is, a lack of water depth. Over time, the movement of ships accumulates mud on the seabed and, as a result, in some ports, ships are forced to wait for high tide to enter the pier, or they must carry less weight, occupying only part of their capacity of load. The solution is to dredge the accumulated material, which must be done at regular intervals, generally every two years. In some ports, the last dredging was carried out ten years ago, due to lack of financial resources, slowness in the bidding process or difficulties in issuing environmental licenses.
More serious, and also more expensive to solve, is the problem of access to Brazilian ports. The railroads are not enough and the highways are in a bad state. The situation is repeated in most ports and is aggravated by the lack of warehouses in sufficient numbers to organize the flow of cargo and avoid queues of trucks. In addition, exporters and importers suffer from excessive bureaucracy in releasing cargo. There are numerous government agencies on the edge of the port, including the Ministry of Defense, the Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa), the Federal Revenue Service and the Ministry of Agriculture. Each of them is responsible for a type of document and for physical checks on the goods. There is no single government register, and the owner of the merchandise is obliged to provide the same information to all agencies in different forms. These obstacles lead to delays in ports and the payment of high amounts in fines for the time the ship is stopped.
Brazil, with all these problems, has a port activity cost much higher than the world average. While in the best port in the country, Santos, 12 dollars are spent to ship 1 ton, the world average is 7.02 dollars per ton, according to data from consultancy Trevisan. In the port of Singapore, the exporter spends 5 dollars per ton and in Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, the cost is only 4.8 dollars per ton. To reach the level of productivity of ports like Rotterdam or Singapore, it will be necessary to invest heavily in modernizing equipment. Brazil needs to reduce its port costs - a key element of a country's competitiveness in a globalized world. The Brazilian port system requires many adjustments, mainly in issues related to road and rail access and productivity. Pecém and Suape, for example, although new and modern, have idle capacity because they do not have a good access system that allows them to receive cargo from the central-north region of the country. When they were planned, there was the intention to build the Transnordestina railroad, which would reach both ports, and also to duplicate the BR-101. None of these projects got off the ground.
Currently, Santos is the main Brazilian port. It receives loads from all over the country. Last year, 27.9% of exports passed through there. Until the beginning of this year, dredging was one of the most serious problems in the port of Santos. Santos' main challenge now is to overcome the bottleneck in access to port terminals. Trucks leaving S?o Paulo for the port of Santos spend 90 minutes on the trip, but when they arrive at the port they are stopped for up to 24 hours waiting to be unloaded. The main railroads in the country end in Santos, but only one company, MRS Logística, owns the final 18 kilometers of the railroad that reaches the pier. To complete the final stretch of the trip, wagons that walked at an average speed of 20 kilometers per hour during the entire journey, slow down to about two kilometers on average because they have to change the locomotive and present a series of documents to have their pass released. This results from the delay in creating a clear regulation on the sharing of meshes. The railroad privatization model divided the networks into lots and did not foresee integration with the ports. The result was the creation of this monster that ends up causing delays in the delivery of cargo.
7. The airport system in Brazil
Airports in Brazil are places where cargo is moved, stored and transferred, in addition to boarding and disembarking passengers using air transport [9][10]. Brazil has 2,463 airports and airfields registered by ANAC (National Civil Aviation Agency), 1,806 of which are private and 657 are public. The main airports in Brazil are shown on the map in Figure 10. They are one of the links in a transport matrix that has national and worldwide coverage.
Figure 10- Map of the main airports in Brazil
The airway transport system is a means of transport considered mixed, since it can transport cargo and people at the same time. Airway transport is responsible for 0.1% of cargo transported in Brazil, which is carried out by aircraft that take off and land at airports and can be divided into national and international. The 10 busiest airports with the largest and best structures in Brazil, in order, are as follows:
? Guarulhos-S?o Paulo International Airport
? Congonhas Airport – S?o Paulo
? Brasilia Airport - Federal District
? Gale?o Airport - Rio de Janeiro
? Confins Airport - Belo Horizonte
? Viracopos Airport - Campinas
? Santos Dumont Airport - Rio de Janeiro
? Recife Airport - Recife
? Porto Alegre Airport - Porto Alegre
? Salvador Airport - Salvador
Guarulhos Airport is considered the largest in the country and also in South America, with an area of 14 square kilometers. The departure and arrival complex is also the second busiest in terms of number of passengers in Latin America, totaling 50.5 million people per year, second only to Mexico City International Airport. In a period of 10 years, Brazil made great progress towards the modernization of its airports with the airport concessions program that played a relevant role in the transformation that the sector had in such a short time.
8. Economic comparison between the main modes of transport in Brazil
The costs that a transport company incurs are fixed and variable costs [1]. The main factors that affect the cost of routes are: distance, volume and weight. Fixed costs are those that do not vary with the distance traveled: depreciation, return on capital, administrative costs, taxes and wages. Variable costs vary with the distance traveled: tires, oil, washing/greasing, fuel, maintenance and tolls. Transport decisions are strongly related to this cost structure, which is fundamental for the adoption of appropriate policies by contracting companies. For example, when a manufacturer of consumer goods chooses a mode of transport, it usually observes that the costs of waterway and railway are mostly fixed, while variable costs prevail in highway and air, which vary with distance and weight. High fixed costs are more suitable for transporting commodities and cargo with low added value, while higher variable costs reflect operations in which delivery times are a priority in transport and products have higher added value.
In a recent survey carried out jointly with IPEA and IBGE and published in the book "Estrutura e Dinamica do Setor de Servi?os no Brasil", it was found that fixed costs reach up to 36% of revenues in the railway modal, while on highways and in airway transport are, respectively, 23 and 17%. On the other hand, in airway transport, total variable and semi-variable costs can reach up to 70% of revenues, compared to 48% for highways and 45% for railways. Based on the fixed cost, airway transport is the most attractive, followed by highway and railway transport, in that order. Based on the variable cost, the railway mode is more attractive than highway and airway modes, in order [1].
The analysis of Table 1 shows that the waterway modal is the most economical alternative because it has a lower cost per ton.km (0.009), superior traction force of 4 thousand kg, requires less investment per 1000 tons (0.75) and has a longer service life (50 years). The railway is in second place because it has a cost per ton.km equal to 0.016, a traction force of 500 kg, requires investment per 1000 tons equal to 2.5, has a useful life of 30 years. The highway alternative has a higher cost per ton.km (0.056), a traction force of 150 kg, requires investment per 1000 tons equal to 3 and has a useful life of 10 years [1].
Table 1- Comparison between waterway, rail and highway modes
Source: Correa,?Vivian Helena Capacle e Ramos, Pedro.??A precariedade do transporte rodoviário brasileiro para o escoamento da produ??o de soja do Centro-Oeste: situa??o e perspectivas. Available on the website ?<https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-20032010000200009>, 2010.???
From the above, the irrationality of the transport matrix in Brazil is demonstrated, which favors the use of the highhway modal, which is, economically, the worst compared with waterway and railway alternatives that should be, in order, the most appropriate modes for implementation in Brazil. This means that the government of Brazil should promote the expansion of railways and railway stations, waterways and ports and airways transport and airports and stop investing in the expansion of highways.
9. Analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in Brazil
Figure 11 informs that transport in the world is responsible for the emission of 22% of greenhouse gases on the planet and that, among the means of transport, trains emit the least followed by ships, planes, trucks and buses. [11]. Trains emit 0.88% of greenhouse gases (0.04x0.22), ships 2.2% (0.10x0.22), planes 2.42% (0.11x0.22) and trucks and buses 7.48% (0.34x0.22) [11]. ?
Figure 11 - Emission of greenhouse gases in the world
In Brazil, the energy sector is responsible for 21% of greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 12).
Figure 12- Emission of greenhouse gases in Brazil
Of the 21% of greenhouse gas emissions carried out by the energy sector, 47% of this value (9.87%) is the responsibility of the transport sector in Brazil (Figure 13). This means that the transport sector as a whole emits 9.87% of greenhouse gases in Brazil. In Brazil, in 2019, the emission of greenhouse gases from freight transport corresponds to 25% of the emission of gases from the energy sector, that is, 5.25% (25% x 21%) of the greenhouse gases emitted in Brazil [16] (Figure 13). Of the 5.25% of greenhouse gases emitted by the freight transport sector, 76% (19% / 25%) is carried out by trucks, 16% (45% / 25%) by light commercial vehicles, 4% (1 % / 25%) by vessels and 4% (15% / 25%) by locomotives (Figure 13).
Figure 13- Emission of greenhouse gases in the transport sector in Brazil
In order to compare the modes of transport in Brazil in terms of their contribution to the emission of greenhouse gases, a calculation was made for each mode of transport of the ratio between the percentage of greenhouse gases emitted and the percentage of cargo transported in Brazil. In the calculation, the data described below were considered:
1) Emission of greenhouse gases
Highways 92% (trucks + light commercial vehicles)
Railways 4% (locomotives)
Waterways 4% (vessels)
Pipelines 0%
2) Cargo transported in Brazil (Figure 1)
Highways 62.7%
领英推荐
Railways 21.7%
Waterways 11.7%
Pipelines 3.8%
Air transport 0.1%
Observations: 1) the comparison of transport modes was limited to highways, railways and waterways, which correspond to 96.1% of cargo transported in Brazil; 2) the pipelines were considered with zero greenhouse gas emissions in their operations and were not considered in the calculation because cargo transportation is very limited; 3) air transport was not considered in the calculation because cargo transport is not very representative compared to other modes.
Result of the calculation of the ratio % Emission of greenhouse gases / % Cargo transported
Highways = 1.4673046?(92% / 62,7%)
Railways = 0.1843317 (4% / 21,7%)
Waterways = 0.3418803 (4% / 11,7%)
This calculation demonstrates that railways and waterways, in order, emit less greenhouse gases per cargo transported than highways. This means that from an environmental point of view, Brazil should prioritize, in order, the use of trains with railways and ships with waterways in cargo transport, rather than trucks and buses with highways. This means that the government of Brazil should promote the expansion of railways and railway stations, waterways and ports and stop investing in the expansion of highways..
10. Evaluation of the current transport sector in Brazil
As explained in parts 1 to 9 of this article, the various modes of transport existing in Brazil were analyzed, which allowed us to verify the following:
? The transport matrix in Brazil is irrational because it privileges the use of the highways modal which is, economically, the worst compared to the waterway and railway alternatives that should be, in order, the most appropriate modes for implementation in Brazil.
? Trains emit the least greenhouse gases, followed by ships, planes, trucks and buses.
? Pipeline transport can cause accidents with a great environmental impact with the rupture of the pipelines, since they are in contact with the ground and the sea, a fact that requires a large financial investment for the safe fixation of the pipes.
? The waterway modal is the most economical alternative, followed by the railway and the road alternative.
? Given Brazil's territorial dimension, greater priority should be given to the implementation of railways instead of highways in the country, as they are more economical and emit less greenhouse gases.
? The main problems of waterways in Brazil result from the fact that they are poorly used for the transport of cargo and passengers.
? The lack of priority for waterway transport leads Brazil to delay its economic development and emit more greenhouse gases with the priority given to highways.
? Most ports in Brazil suffer from a lack of draft, that is, a lack of water depth whose solution requires the dredging of accumulated material, which should be done at regular intervals, generally every two years.
? Brazil's ports face problems related to cargo access because there are not enough railroads and roads are in a bad state.
? The ports in Brazil face the problem of a lack of warehouses in sufficient numbers to organize the flow of cargo and avoid queues of trucks.
? There is excessive bureaucracy in releasing cargo at ports.
? There is no single government register, and the owner of the commodity is required to provide the same information to all agencies on different forms.
? Brazil has a port activity cost much higher than the world average.
? To reach the productivity level of ports like Rotterdam or Singapore, it will be necessary to invest heavily in the modernization of equipment in ports in Brazil.
The Brazilian government needs to adopt compatible strategies to eliminate all the weaknesses described above, as well as to make sustainable and expand and modernize Brazil's transport sector.
11. How to make Brazil's transport sector sustainable
As explained in part 9 of this article, the conclusions from the point of view of environmental sustainability are that transport in the world is responsible for the emission of 22% of greenhouse gases on the planet and, in Brazil, in 2019, the transport sector is responsible for 9.87% of greenhouse gas emissions. Brazil's highway transport system accounts for 23% of the freight transport sector's greenhouse gas emissions, the railway transport system for 1% and the waterway transport system for 1%. Brazil will be able to contribute to reducing the emission of these gases by seeking environmental sustainability for its transport sector, adopting as a priority the realization of investments in the expansion of railways and waterways, because trains and ships are the means of transport that emit less greenhouse gases, as well as abandoning the expansion of the road transport system. This means that from an environmental point of view, Brazil should prioritize, in order, the use of trains and ships in cargo transportation and not the use of trucks and buses.
12. How to expand and modernize Brazil's transport systems
i) The future of motor vehicles and the expansion and modernization of the highway transport system in Brazil
In the future, highways will not be as unsafe as they are today. Vehicles will not have drivers and will not emit polluting waste into the air. Highways will be controlled by sophisticated technologies that communicate with cars, extract energy from the Sun, integrate road infrastructure and GPS systems [12]. The highways of the future are already beginning to be designed. The highways of the future will feature advanced solar panels that will generate clean, renewable energy and wirelessly charge electric cars in motion or parked. As rodovias ter?o ilumina??o LED e elementos de aquecimento para derreter a neve onde ela ocorrer. Electric cars are set to become commonplace on the roads of the future, as scientific developments will greatly improve battery performance and the potential for increased electricity storage. Fully automated navigation systems will also allow roads to be populated by driverless cars that will require changes in road design and operation and greater safety and environmental benefits. Vehicles will become increasingly “smart”, which, with a combination of the connected vehicle and the Internet of Things, will enable cars to transmit and receive information about traffic, speed, weather and potential safety risks. Public or private autonomous vehicles will connect us from our home to a transport hub. There are already driverless buses in the canton of Schaffhausen, Switzerland, which circulate picking up and dropping off passengers while tackling traffic [13]. It doesn't even have a steering wheel. An employee inside the bus can take control of the vehicle from a remote control, in case there is any unforeseen event.
Strategies needed to expand and modernize Brazil's highways transport system:
? Abandon investments in new highways, prioritizing investments in the modernization of current highways in Brazil.
? Equip current highways with technologies that communicate with motor vehicles in transit.
? Install photovoltaic energy systems on current highways that will wirelessly charge electric cars in motion or parked.
? Install photovoltaic panels with LED lighting systems and GPS systems on current highways.
? Install on current highways fully automated navigation systems that will allow the roads to be populated by driverless cars providing safety and environmental benefits.
? Make it possible for motor vehicles to receive information about traffic, speed, weather and potential safety risks on current highways.
ii) The future of trains and the expansion and modernization strategies of the railway transport system in Brazil
In the future, comfortable high-speed trains will be commonplace and will avoid congestion on the highways. Most railway lines in the main world capitals will be supplied by renewable energies such as photovoltaic solar, wind and hydrogen [13]. Trains will magnetically levitate in tubes without air, reaching high speeds interconnecting different neighborhoods of the metropolises. The driverless system, that is, without a driver on the train and a driver on the bus, will be in full operation [13]. Subways and trains (and, who knows, buses) will be driven remotely through software, providing more safety, speed and comfort to passengers, since it will be possible to control the speed, the interval between them, and even the time of opening the doors. In addition, the perfect synchronization of the trains will avoid sudden stops and contribute to the reduction of energy consumption. Carriers and suppliers will use resources such as artificial intelligence, internet of things, network speed and big data in order to enable more effective payment systems and the integration of modalities, so that metro and buses will be used more widely by the population [ 13].
On railway lines, preventive maintenance will be carried out by autonomous drones, driverless trains will travel safely at high speed, loads will be automatically sent to their destination, and smart technology will be designed to improve the passenger experience and enable ticketless travel. There will be improvement and dissemination of automatic steering systems on trains, which will further optimize travel times and may put an end to delays. Smart robots will build new railway infrastructure and modernize old ones. Technological advances will also be vital in improving the user experience, providing accurate real-time route information, and enabling uninterrupted access to work and entertainment while traveling via wireless internet networks (Wireless and/or 5G). The exceptionally quiet and efficient magnetic levitation technology employed in the fully automated Conveyor System will also allow the system to serve as a space saving, low greenhouse gas alternative. The system will operate reaching speeds of up to 150 km per hour, being able to handle up to 180 containers/hour individually and completely electrically [13].
Strategies needed to expand and modernize Brazil's railway transport system:
? Create clear regulations on the sharing of Brazil's privatized railway network, aiming at its integration to avoid delays in the delivery of goods.
? Design the expansion of new railways and railway stations considering high-speed railways lines with trains that will magnetically levitate in airless tubes.
? Use the exceptionally quiet and efficient magnetic levitation technology employed in the fully automated conveyor system to allow the system to serve as a space-saving, low-GHG alternative.
? Design the expansion of new high-speed railways with railway stations and comfortable passenger trains.
? Design the expansion of new railways and railway stations fueled by renewable energies such as photovoltaic solar, wind and hydrogen.
? Design new railways with or without a driverless system, that is, without a driver.
? Design new railways conducted remotely through software, providing more safety, speed and comfort to passengers, since it will be possible to control the speed, the interval between them, and even the opening time of the doors. In addition, the perfect synchronization of the trains will avoid sudden stops and contribute to the reduction of energy consumption.
? Use resources such as artificial intelligence, internet of things, network speed and big data in order to enable more effective payment systems and the integration of the railway with the subway and buses.
? Carry out preventive maintenance on railway lines by autonomous drones.
? Use intelligent robots to build new railway infrastructure and modernize old ones.
? Improve user experience by providing accurate real-time route information and enabling uninterrupted access to work and entertainment while traveling over wireless internet networks (Wireless and/or 5G).
iii) The future of ships and the expansion and modernization strategies of the waterway transport system in Brazil
In the future, ships will benefit from increasingly sophisticated technologies. Smart ships will become an integral part of the reality around us. Ships will have sophisticated sonar to prevent collisions with icebergs or means that provide better use of energy. Ships like these will make better use of ocean currents and may even prevent further damage to the ecosystem [14]. The naval industry has been studying innovations that will inevitably place navigation on a more sustainable level. It is expected that in the next 10, 20 or 30 years, vessels powered by solar energy will emerge, as there is a great advance in the studies of this technology and its applicability on a large scale. There will even be civil use of nuclear energy as a source of propulsion and smart ports [14]. New technologies can be added to port infrastructures, based on the concept of industry 4.0 in the automation and digitization of ports through robotics, big data, internet of things (IoT), blockchain and artificial intelligence [14]. The cargo ships will use batteries that will be powered by solar and wind energy through agreements with companies that operate close to the ports where the ships will be moored. There they can be recharged and have their batteries replaced [15].
A new electric, unmanned container ship is being built in Norway by two companies. The electric cargo ship, for short-haul shipping, will initially have a crew present, but in 2022, the ship would switch to autonomous operation (if it obtains the necessary authorizations). This ship called “Tesla of the seas” will be steered from an onboard control center during the first few voyages. Then it will be controlled autonomously via GPS. Possible collisions will be avoided using a combination of sensors [14]. The CO2 emission of a large ship is equivalent to more than 83,000 cars. As there are 100,000 ships, they pollute the equivalent of 830 million cars. To avoid this problem, global shipping company Maersk plans to install “rotor sails” for its tankers as a way to reduce fuel costs and carbon emissions. The company behind the technology, Finnish Norsepower, says this is the first wind power retrofit system on an oil tanker [14]. It is worth highlighting the great advances in the applicability of wind or wind energy in ship propulsion. Wind energy, with the installation of rotor sails, generates clean and renewable energy as an auxiliary source of propulsion, bringing more sustainability to the naval sector in the near future. Great strides in reducing fuel consumption are also achieved thanks to more efficient heat recovery systems, types of painting, and even profound changes in the design of ship hulls, all of which generate less greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.
There will be a great expansion with the propulsion of ships by LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas). Vessels that use this fossil fuel, one of the cleanest, are already a reality and its applicability is increasing year after year. The use of LNG provides not only a reduction in costs to the shipowner, mainly related to maintenance, but mainly the environmental gain. Compared to traditional engines, it represents a 99% reduction in the emission of sulfur dioxide, 85% of nitrogen dioxide and 20% of carbon dioxide. Advances in replacing heavy oil with LNG in ship propulsion will make it possible to achieve the International Maritime Organization (IMO) target of a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 [14]. One of the most sustainable technologies under study is that of freighters without ballast tanks, which aim to provide ship stability by avoiding the discharge of salty ballast water, which, when emptying it, can cause serious environmental impacts due to the insertion of non-native microorganisms, such as , for example, cholera outbreaks and the spread of the golden mussel, which causes serious fouling problems in vessels, pipelines and even hydroelectric plants. The change in freighters without ballast tanks consists of replacing the ballast tanks with structural longitudinal “pipes”, with admission at the bow and discharge at the stern, which create a constant flow of local salt water and promote the necessary pressure to generate the stability of the vessel ship, according to the cargo shipped. The eventual implementation of such technology in shipbuilding could have positive impacts on the environment and on the operational cost of the vessel, since a series of measures and equipment that are currently used to mitigate the risks of dumping microorganisms in other areas [14].
Strategies needed to expand and modernize Brazil's waterway transport system:
? Solve the problem of dredging in the port of Santos.
? Solve the problem of access to Brazilian ports by rail and road.
? Solve the problem of the lack of warehouses in sufficient numbers to organize the flow of goods and avoid queues of trucks at ports.
? Eliminate excessive bureaucracy in releasing cargo shipments at ports.
? Raise the productivity level of ports in Brazil by investing heavily in the modernization of port equipment.
? Design the expansion and modernization of waterways and ports in Brazil.
? Encourage the use of solar-powered vessels and cargo ships that use batteries powered by solar and wind energy to combat greenhouse gas emissions.
? Encourage the installation of “rotor sails” as a wind power retrofit system that generates clean, renewable energy as an auxiliary source of propulsion in oil tankers, as a way to reduce fuel costs and carbon emissions.
? Encourage ship propulsion using LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas), which is the cleanest fossil fuel.
? Encourage ships not to use ballast tanks by replacing them with structural longitudinal “pipes”, with admission at the bow and discharge at the stern, which create a constant flow of local salt water and promote the necessary pressure to generate the stability of the ship, according to the cargo shipped.
? Equip the ports of the future with installations that make it possible to charge or replace batteries on ships powered by solar energy, as there is a great advance in the studies of this technology and its applicability on a large scale.
? Provide the ports of the future with new technologies added to port infrastructure, based on the concept of industry 4.0, automation and digitization of ports through robotics, big data, internet of things (IoT), blockchain and artificial intelligence.
? Equip the ports of the future with natural gas terminals to supply ships with propulsion based on LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas).
iv) The future of airplanes and strategies for expanding and modernizing the air transport system in Brazil
What will the airway transport of the future look like? The aeronautical industry is working on the development of several aircraft projects that promise to revolutionize air transport in the coming years and decades [15]. There are supersonic, electric, autonomous planes and even aircraft that look like a giant drone for transporting passengers in urban centers. The search for more efficient ways of flying and transporting passengers across the skies while emitting less polluting gases (or even zero emissions) is the great challenge for the aeronautical industry for the coming years. This change will require a technological overhaul of the planes. There are studies on electric planes, flying cars, supersonic planes, among other innovations. The electric plane solution does not yet work for large aircraft. What can be built, at the moment, are electric planes with a capacity of just over 10 passengers and a flight range of around 300 km. Another option evaluated in this area is hybrid propulsion, combining conventional and electric motors. Electric planes should not evolve so quickly to the point of displacing jets in the short or medium term. Electric planes use electric batteries, the “fuel” of this new type of plane, which are quite heavy and inefficient compared to the high power of jet engines and turboprops. Another electrical source being studied for airplanes is hydrogen-powered generators, a technology that still needs to mature until it becomes really viable.
The search for more efficient ways of flying and transporting passengers across the skies while emitting less polluting gases (or even zero emissions) is the great challenge for the aeronautical industry for the coming years. This change will require a technological overhaul of aircraft and passenger habits. Finnish airlines Finnair and Norway's Wider?e recently announced plans to introduce electric passenger jets into their fleets by 2026. In Canada, where the use of small commercial planes is also gaining traction, Harbor Air is testing seaplanes retrofitted with electric propellers. These days, machines in the form of the giant Boeing 747 and Airbus A380 are falling out of favor in passenger transport. They are too expensive to operate, require more maintenance and consume enormous amounts of fuel. Advances in engine technologies and new aerodynamic solutions have contributed to significantly reduce fuel consumption by commercial aircraft, opening up the possibility of increasingly longer routes.
Hybrid aircraft are those designed to take off and land vertically with tilt rotors. This type of aircraft is growing rapidly as designers and startups realize that this is the future of aircraft. VoltAero, a French aviation startup, is developing a hybrid plane that could become a “Tesla” of the skies, popularizing the technology and making it available to more people. The aircraft was designed to have a flight autonomy of up to 3.5 hours, with a range of 1,287 km, flying up to 8 times a day with a total flight time of 10 hours. Built with composite materials, the aircraft will be offered in three versions: the Cassio 330, with four seats and a hybrid propulsion system with a power of 330 kW, the Cassio 480, with six seats and a hybrid propulsion with 480 kW. The third model is the Cassio 600, with 10 seats and 600 kW hybrid propulsion. Its cruising speed is estimated at 370 km/h, and in all-electric mode the range is 200 km [15].
Boom has the proposal that comes closest to what the Concorde was. Smaller jets, previously restricted to domestic flights, will be able to carry out international trips between continents. 9 Researchers from the Technical University of Delft, in the Netherlands, managed to fly a prototype of the new Flying-V commercial aircraft for the first time, which is considered as a new aircraft that can change aviation in the future [42]. With a V-shape quite different from traditional commercial aircraft, the Flying-V has a design thought to have a more efficient fuel consumption. Airbus presents designs for hydrogen-powered aircraft to avoid greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. It is a 'V'-shaped model, with wings integrated into the body of the plane. The aeronautical industry is working on the development of several aircraft projects that promise to revolutionize air transport in the coming years and decades [15].
Strategies needed to expand and modernize Brazil's air transport system:
? Design the expansion and modernization of airports in Brazil.
? Analyze the changes to be processed in current airports to operate with the development of several aircraft projects that promise to revolutionize air transport in the coming years and decades.
? Analyze the changes to be processed in current airports to operate hybrid aircraft, which are those designed to take off and land vertically with tilt rotors.
? Analyze the changes to be processed at current airports to operate with the new Flying-V commercial aircraft, which is pointed out as a new aircraft that can change aviation in the future.
? Advocate for Airbus manufacturing that features designs for hydrogen-powered aircraft to avoid greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
? Defend the manufacture of aircraft based on hybrid propulsion, combining conventional and electric engines to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.
? Encourage the use of electric planes because they emit less polluting gases (or even zero) or hybrid propulsion, combining conventional and electric engines and hydrogen-powered planes, a technology that still needs to mature until it becomes really viable.
? Encourage the use of hybrid aircraft that are those designed to take off and land vertically with tilt rotors.
? Equip the airports of the future with installations that make it possible to charge or replace batteries for electric planes and hydrogen for aircraft powered by hydrogen.
? Equip the airports of the future with new technologies added to airport infrastructure, based on the concept of industry 4.0 in the automation and digitization of airports through robotics, big data, internet of things (IoT), blockchain and artificial intelligence.
All these changes that may occur in the future in road, pipeline, waterway and air transport make it a requirement that transport systems in Brazil need to be designed taking into account the future scenario described above. In this sense, Brazil's transport systems need to be designed taking into account the future scenario for highway, pipeline, railway, waterway and airway transport systems.
All these changes that may occur in the future of motor vehicles, trains, ships and planes make it a requirement that highways, pipelines, waterways and airways transport systems in Brazil be designed taking into account the future scenarios described above.
REFERENCES
1. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. A matriz de transporte requerida ao Brasil. Available on the website ?<https://www.academia.edu/36766599/A_MATRIZ_DE_TRANSPORTE_REQUERIDA_AO_BRASIL>.
2. CAVALCANTI, Leonardo, DIANNI, Claudia e CALCAGNO, Luiz. Hidrovias brasileiras s?o desconsideradas pelo poder público. Available on the website ?<https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/app/noticia/brasil/2019/07/29/interna-brasil,774337/hidrovias-brasileiras.shtml>.
3. CANCIAN, Thais. Transporte mais limpo, eficiente e barato do Brasil é pouco utilizado. Available on the website ?<https://exame.com/negocios/transporte-mais-limpo-eficiente-e-barato-do-brasil-e-pouco-utilizado_red-01/>.
4. ?BRASIL, Daniel. Cabotagem: saiba tudo sobre esse transporte que só cresce no Brasil. Available on the website ?<https://www.hivecloud.com.br/post/cabotagem-saiba-tudo-sobre-esse-transporte/>.
5. BNDES. A Cabotagem no Brasil. Available on the website ?<https://www.bndes.gov.br/wps/portal/site/home/conhecimento/noticias/noticia/cabotagem>.?
6. SILVA, Wellington Souza. Transporte dutoviário. Available on the website ?<https://www.infoescola.com/geografia/transporte-dutoviario/>.?
7. RAMALHAO, Luciana. Portos do Brasil: conhe?a as principais instala??es portuárias existentes no país. Available on the website ?<https://navalportoestaleiro.com/portos-do-brasil-conheca-as-principais-instalacoes-portuarias-existentes-no-pais/>.?
8. FURTADO, Clarissa. Infraestrutura - O nó dos portos brasileiros. Available on the website ?<https://www.ipea.gov.br/desafios/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=872:catid=28&Itemid>.
9. WIKIPEDIA. Lista de aeroportos do Brasil por movimento. Available on the website ?<https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lista_de_aeroportos_do_Brasil_por_movimento>.
10. PASSAGENS PROMO. Maiores aeroportos do Brasil: listamos os 10 principais! Available on the website ?<https://www.passagenspromo.com.br/blog/maiores-aeroportos-do-brasil/>.
11. MERLUZZI, Orlando. A eletrifica??o e os emissores de CO2 na atmosfera. Available on the website ?<https://oleodieselnaveia.com/2022/08/12/a-eletrificacao-e-os-emissores-de-co2/>.
12. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. As revolu??es nos meios de transporte desde a pré-história à era contemporanea e sua evolu??o futura. ?Available on the website ?<https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/revolu%C3%A7%C3%B5es-nos-meios-de-transporte-desde-pr%C3%A9-hist%C3%B3ria-alcoforado/?trk=pulse-article&originalSubdomain=pt>.
13. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. As grandes inven??es no transporte terrestre e dutoviário da história e sua futura evolu??o. ?Available on the website ?<https://www.academia.edu/70469861/AS_GRANDES_INVEN%C3%87%C3%95ES_NO_TRANSPORTE_TERRESTRE_E_DUTOVI%C3%81RIO_DA_HIST%C3%93RIA_E_SUA_FUTURA_EVOLU%C3%87%C3%83O>.
14. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. As grandes inven??es no transporte hidroviário ao longo da história e sua futura evolu??o. ???Available on the website ?<https://www.academia.edu/70469861/AS_GRANDES_INVEN%C3%87%C3%95ES_NO_TRANSPORTE_TERRESTRE_E_DUTOVI%C3%81RIO_DA_HIST%C3%93RIA_E_SUA_FUTURA_EVOLU%C3%87%C3%83O>.
15. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. As grandes inven??es no transporte aéreo e espacial ao longo da história e sua futura evolu??o.???Available on the website ?<https://www.academia.edu/74982444/AS_GRANDES_INVEN%C3%87%C3%95ES_NO_TRANSPORTE_A%C3%89REO_E_ESPACIAL_AO_LONGO_DA_HIST%C3%93RIA_E_SUA_FUTURA_EVOLU%C3%87%C3%83O>.
16. IEMA. As emiss?es brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa nos setores de Energia e de Processos Industriais em 2019. Available on the website ?<https://energiaeambiente.org.br/as-emissoes-brasileiras-de-gases-de-efeito-estufa-nos-setores-de-energia-e-de-processos-industriais-em-2019-20201201>.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor (Engineering, Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globaliza??o (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,https://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globaliza??o e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporanea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, S?o Paulo, 2010), Amaz?nia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, S?o Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econ?mico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudan?a Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revolu??es Científicas, Econ?micas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Inven??o de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017),?Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associa??o Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade amea?ada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência (Editora Dialética, S?o Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribui??o ao progresso e à sobrevivência da humanidade(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook (CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, United States, 2022) and How to protect human beings from threats to their existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Europe, Republic of Moldova, Chi?in?u, 2023).