How General Purpose Technologies Transform Societies: Is AI Different?

In the history of technological development, certain inventions stand out because of the magnitude of their effects across economies and societies. These are known as General Purpose Technologies (GPTechs to avoid confusion with Generative Pre-trained Transformers such as GPT-4), and they possess traits that set them apart from less transformative innovations. To be a GPTech, a technology must spread broadly, impacting numerous industries, geographies, and aspects of daily life. It also needs to be an enabler of a cascade of further innovation, opening new avenues for progress and development.

While we could go back to fire and the wheel, I will explore three more recent examples of GPTechs – steam power in the UK, electricity in the US, and the internet in the Western world – exploring their origins and historical arcs of adoption. Understanding how past GPTechs altered the world offers insight into the transformative potential of emerging technologies. I will conclude by examining the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and consider whether its adoption trajectory will likely be similar to its predecessors or chart a different course.

Steam Power in the United Kingdom

While rudimentary steam-powered devices existed before the 18th century, it was in the United Kingdom that steam was harnessed for widespread industrial application. Early versions, developed by Thomas Savery and Thomas Newcomen, were primarily used for pumping water from mines. While these engines laid the crucial groundwork, it was James Watt's transformative improvements in the mid-1700s that catalyzed steam's rise.

Watt's separate condenser drastically improved efficiency, and his adaptation of steam engines to produce rotary motion made them suitable for driving industrial machinery. Coal, which was plentiful in the UK, provided a ready fuel for this transformation. Steam power was adopted in textile mills, revolutionizing production by powering machines like the cotton gin. Steam power was also applied widely in manufacturing and revolutionized the speed of transportation by railways and steamships.

These impacts created a positive feedback loop, accelerating the development of coal and iron production in support of the growing demand for steam-powered systems. However, this transformation came with social upheaval. The use of steam in agriculture and the rise of steam-powered factories drew rural populations towards industrial centers. While bringing new job opportunities, the automation made possible by steam displaced many who previously relied on skilled manual labor or craft production. Additionally, factory work came with its own hardships, from long hours and hazardous conditions to a shift in family and community life dynamics.

Defining the duration of steam's "arc of adoption" requires making some judgment calls. Starting from Newcomen's first practical engines in the early 1700s and stopping in the mid-1800s – when steam was a dominant force throughout UK industries – it's roughly a century-long trajectory. However, steam's role continued to expand into the 20th century.

Electricity in the United States

From Thomas Edison's Pearl Street Station in 1882 to today's vast, interconnected power grids, electricity represents a GPTech that has had a massive impact. While initial electric systems were confined to dense urban areas, advancements in alternating current (AC) power, championed by figures like Nikola Tesla and George Westinghouse, enabled long-distance power transmission. This was critical for expanding electricity's reach across the vast US landscape.

Electricity didn't merely replace candles and gaslight; the compact, distributed motors it powered spurred an entirely new technological era. Homes filled with refrigerators, washing machines, and other electric appliances – conveniences unimaginable in the steam-powered world. Factories underwent electrification, streamlining production and enabling new manufacturing processes, such as Henry Ford's assembly line. From electric streetcars to long-distance telephony, electricity formed the backbone of countless communication and transportation systems. This transformation of the home and factory was not without social complexities. While creating jobs in industries like electrical utilities and appliance manufacturing, electricity also continued the trend of automation that began with steam power, further displacing those employed in manual tasks. Access to electricity also fueled a new consumer culture and concerns about mass-produced goods replacing quality craftsmanship.

The United States embarked on a major electrification drive. Between Edison's breakthrough in the 1880s and the 1940s, when roughly 75% of the country had access, approximately 60 years had elapsed. Yet, extending power to less densely populated areas took longer. The Rural Electrification Administration, formed in 1935, brought this GPTech to previously underserved regions. Initiatives focused on modernizing the power grid and transitioning to renewable energy sources mark present-day electrification efforts, making it an ongoing evolution rather than a fixed completion point.

The Internet in the Developed World

As a modern GPTech, the internet transformed the world faster than its predecessors. While its origins lie in the ARPANET project of the late 1960s, aimed at linking research institutions, the true catalyst for widespread adoption was the birth of the World Wide Web (WWW). Tim Berners-Lee's invention in the early 1990s, coupled with the emergence of user-friendly web browsers and expanding networks, opened the online world to far more than just academics and programmers.

With this enhanced accessibility came a wave of commercialization. Internet Service Providers (ISPs) connected households and businesses. E-commerce, with giants like Amazon transforming retail, Google’s search engine, and entirely new web-based businesses emerged, changing how we shop, search for information, and interact. While its initial adoption may have taken decades, the arrival of broadband internet and the dawn of the smartphone age dramatically accelerated the internet's integration into our everyday lives.

The internet has created communities that transcend geography, connecting people with shared interests or experiences while generating new industries and occupations. Yet, by disrupting older business models, the internet has also caused jobs to vanish, particularly in those replaced by online or automated services. It has fostered concerns about online echo chambers and a decline in face-to-face interaction, potentially impacting aspects of mental health and offline social engagement.

Defining the timeline of internet adoption presents a unique challenge. If we focus on ARPANET's beginnings to widespread public access around the early 2000s in the Western world, a span of roughly 30-40 years emerges. However, the continuous evolution of new technologies and applications keeps shifting the goalposts of what constitutes full "adoption." High-speed broadband access remains unequally distributed, and with concepts like the metaverse on the horizon, the ongoing expansion hints that the internet's transformational era is far from over.

Comparative Analysis

General Purpose Technologies rarely arise de novo. Instead, they evolve in a cascade, each building upon the discoveries and infrastructure created by its predecessors, as summarized in the table below. Just as steam power spurred advancements in metallurgy and mechanical engineering, these advancements became instrumental in realizing electricity's potential. Generating and distributing electricity at scale required new alloys, precision machine tools, and an understanding of materials – domains significantly advanced during the earlier steam age.

Electricity, in turn, forms the backbone of our digital era. The interconnected power grids we rely on are instrumental in transmitting data packets across the internet. Additionally, advancements in semiconductor fabrication and miniaturization of components, essential to our computers and smartphones, would be unthinkable without manufacturing techniques optimized during the age of electricity.

Furthermore, GPTechs don't merely inherit technological foundations; they transform the societies they shape, impacting how innovations are adopted later. Steam power catalyzed large-scale urbanization, making the close concentration of people and industry a fertile ground for electrical grids and their applications. Likewise, the shift towards mass production using electricity made society receptive to the standardized hardware and software of the Internet revolution.

This interdependent web of progress suggests that our present focus on developments like Artificial Intelligence (AI) must acknowledge the ongoing influence of past GPTs. The internet provides the data landscape needed for AI, while electricity powers the vast computing infrastructure. Understanding this interplay encourages us to consider potential social changes stemming from these new technologies alongside the technical possibilities they unlock.

Estimated Adoption Time Frames

Steam Power (UK)

From Newcomen's atmospheric engine in the early 1700s to Mid-1800s ~100 years (focusing on widespread industrial dominance)

Electricity (US)

From 1880s when Edison build Pearl Street Station to 1930s establishment of the Rural Electrification Administration (REA) ~60 years (up to 75% national access)

Internet (Western World)

From the development of the ARPANET in the 1960s to 2000s+ when Broadband and smartphones massively accelerate adoption? ~30-40 years (up to mainstream household access)

Is AI Different?

While General Purpose Technologies share certain patterns, the emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) raises the possibility of a divergence from prior adoption trajectories. AI has the potential to dramatically rewire industries and aspects of daily life, and its unique characteristics suggest its transformative path may look remarkably different.

One potential deviation is the pace of change. The adoption of steam power unfolded over a century, while electricity's influence spread across many decades. AI, propelled by breakthroughs in machine learning and vast amounts of data, could alter industries and job markets with astounding speed. While this carries enormous potential for innovation, the speed of this transition poses distinct challenges. It risks leaving individuals and businesses scrambling to adapt, and the emergent ratio of jobs created to jobs eliminated becomes critical in mitigating this economic strain.

Unlike preceding GPTechs, AI doesn't necessarily require the development of extensive physical infrastructure rollout. While it demands robust computational capacity, AI innovations manifest as software algorithms. This could allow for a broader and faster dispersal of AI applications across nations. Conversely, this shift highlights the importance of computational resources and AI knowledge, both of which become vital assets in an AI-driven world. Without equitable access to this new form of "infrastructure," a global AI adoption gap may develop, with geographic disparities dictating who benefits or suffers the greatest impacts.

AI's potential to automate cognitive tasks presents another break from tradition. Past GPTechs primarily emphasized physical mechanization, with the greatest initial impact on manual labor. While AI will undoubtedly transform many manual trades, its most significant impact will be on intellectual industries – from medical diagnostics to creative content generation. This could result in both the destruction and creation of jobs across a broader spectrum of the workforce than historically experienced with GPTechs. The rate at which these tasks are replaced or restructured by AI will directly influence the extent of disruption across socioeconomic levels.

A distinct challenge surrounding AI stems from its inherent complexity and ethical implications. Understanding how AI systems reach decisions becomes vital for trust and accountability. Intentional misinterpretations or unintended biases within AI algorithms could create social upheaval and hinder widespread adoption. These potential harms may need robust regulation or industry-wide standards, contrasting to previous GPTechs, where technical and economic factors drove adoption more directly.

Finally, AI is interwoven with the current digital landscape founded on the internet. AI can exploit the interconnectedness of the internet, accelerating its global impact. However, AI adoption simultaneously inherits the ongoing complexities of misinformation, online echo chambers, and privacy concerns surrounding data collection. Public perception and evolving policy around these issues may shape the speed and direction of AI's development and integration into society.

The trajectory of AI is far from certain, and its adoption is likely to vary substantially depending on individual use cases and social context. Understanding how AI sets itself apart from past transformative technologies allows us to grapple with potential opportunities and proactively address unique challenges this emerging GPTech poses.

Conclusion

evolution of technology rarely pauses, and as Artificial Intelligence (AI) emerges as a potential contender for GPTech status, several key questions linger. Will AI's disruption unfold differently than its predecessors? How will societies manage jobs potentially created and displaced by AI, shaping economic landscapes at potentially greater velocities than earlier transitions? Can the world collaborate to leverage AI's power equitably and learn from past adoption gaps with other GPTechs to avoid deepening divisions? Additionally, ethical and regulatory considerations unique to AI must be thoughtfully addressed alongside rapid technological progress.

The history of GPTechs illustrates a cycle of profound change and adaptation. While past adoptions inform our thinking, embracing new developments, like AI, does not imply blind acceptance. Recognizing AI's extraordinary potential and complex challenges offers the best route toward shaping a future where the technology contributes to human progress.

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