How to foresee the Facebook future in the next 5 minutes and 10X your business in the process

Facebook has been under the storm for the last year. Cambridge Analytika, congress hearings, lower growth rate etc.

The results of this continuous hit showed up:

Facebook stock entered 2018 with a $500 billion market cap, and Facebook had 50% revenue growth, 50% operating margins, and an unparalleled digital ecosystem that pretty much every internet user in the world was plugged into. FB stock is exiting 2018 with a $400 billion market cap, and FB now has 30% revenue growth, 40% operating margins, and a global digital ecosystem that’s threatened by regulation and user fatigue.

So seems the beast has slowed down. And a lot of people started to write off Facebook.

Oh, Facebook is done. Facebook ads are not effective anymore etc.

BUT if you start to dig deeper, you see the real picture of Facebook. And reality is FACEBOOK IS NOT FACEBOOK anymore.

It's the most robust and sophisticated content distribution platform in the world and it slowly but surely dominates every aspect of our lives. Not in the form of Facebook, but all other platforms that are coming OUT OF Facebook.

And Facebook has what it needs to have - THE RIGHT incentive. What's the right incentive? VIDEO.

Facebook just released data on Facebook Watch, the company’s Internet TV offering. On the surface, the data is pretty impressive. Just three months after Facebook Watch’s global launch, it has 400 million monthly active users, and 75 million daily active users who spend at least 20 minutes per day on the platform.

The headline numbers from Facebook Watch are impressive and underscore that video consumption on Facebook is growing.

Facebook Watch has 400 million monthly active users. By comparison, YouTube has 1.8 billion monthly active users. In other words, Facebook Watch has been available throughout the world for only a few months, and it already is more than 20% as big as YouTube, the world’s leading digital- video platform.

More importantly, Facebook Watch has 75 million daily active users who consume 20 minutes of video per day on Watch. That means people are doing more than just clicking on the Watch tab, taking a fast look, and then quickly clicking on something else They are actually viewing Watch’s content.

Let’s estimate how much revenue Watch can generate for FB. YouTube has 1.8 billion users, and is set to generate about $15 billion of revenue this year. Many analysts expect that figure to grow to $30 billion within the next few years. If it does, YouTube’s user base will likely have expanded to 2 billion by then. Thus, a reasonable projection for YouTube’s average revenue per monthly active user is $15.

Let’s conservatively say that Facebook Watch plateaus around 500 million monthly users. Average revenue per user of $15 and 500 million users would generate $7.5 billion of revenue. Assuming 40% operating margins and a 20% tax rate, its net profits would be about $2.4 billion. Assuming a price-earnings multiple of 20, which is average for growth stocks, we arrive at a nearly $50 billion valuation for Facebook Watch.

And that’s just with 500 million users. What if Watch’s penetration rate reaches 50%, raising its user base to 1 billion? Based on our previous assumptions, Watch’s valuation would be nearly $100 billion.

Zuck isn't dumb. He is not waiting for a storm to hit his business. He is constantly jumping from one winning trend to another accurately predicting what people will want to see. AND PEOPLE LOVE VIDEO. It's instant gratification (no need to read, dynamic, visual, robust).

If you dig even deeper, you see even MORE on what Facebook is up to. And again it's hugely reliant on video.

Facebook owns all the other relevant digital video platforms. Instagram is the world’s largest photo and video-sharing platform in the world, with 1 billion monthly users. Instagram Stories is the second- largest Stories platform in the world. (Stories are shared by users and consist of videos and photos). WhatsApp Status, which is owned by FB, is the world’s largest Stories platform, while Facebook Messenger Stories is third. Meanwhile, Facebook Watch now has 400 million monthly users, making it a YouTube rival, and nearly all of Facebook’s 2 billion users have seen a live video stream on Facebook.

So before you think Facebook is dying, take a look into the data and define your strategy to utilize this immense trend.

Whether it's by crushing it with Facebook video ads, Instagram stories or figuring our the Facebook Watch platform.

We have generated $24+ mil in direct eCommerce sales for our clients and our projects just in the last month and 90% of that is with video through Facebook and Instagram. The rest is using images.

You can jump from platform to platform (shiny objects) OR dedicate yourself to get the most out of it while the timing is perfect.

The choice is yours.