How Fertilizer Production Became the “Best-Use Case” for promoting a Green Hydrogen Economy in Kenya ?

By 2032, Kenya aims to replace 50% of its current fertilizer imports—currently around 300,000 to 400,000 tons annually, costing approximately KSh44.8 billion as of 2023 Q2—with locally produced green hydrogen-based alternatives.

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On May 10th, 2024, Kenya's Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) released “The Guidelines on Green Hydrogen and its derivatives “, a policy framework, detailing a two phased, ten-year plan to advance green hydrogen applications within Kenya’s agricultural sector.

• Phase I (2023–2027): Aims to replace 20% of imported ammonia-based fertilizers (100,000 tones/year) and all imported methanol (5,000+ tones/year) with local production.
• ?Phase II (2028–2032):? Targets 50% replacement of imported ammonia-based fertilizers (300,000–400,000 tones/year), and exploring export markets for hydrogen derivatives.

Furthermore, the Green Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap 2023, affirms that,

??“…Identifying the most promising green hydrogen use cases naturally brings the agricultural sector into focus. …So, investing in the agricultural value chain and establishing a domestic fertilizer production industry based on green hydrogen and ammonia represents a no-regret option for Kenya.”

In this article, we will cover:

1. Overview of Kenya's Agricultural Sector
2. Global Challenges Related to the Production of Synthetic Nitrogen Fertilizers.
3. Production Process (Ammonia Synthesis)
4. Kenya's Challenges Due to Overdependence on Imported Fertilizers.
5. Green Hydrogen as a "Solution" to Kenya's Agricultural Sector and Overall Economy.

This article explores green hydrogen's intersection with Kenya’s food security, balance of payment, green industrial growth and decarbonization.

1. Overview of Kenya's Agricultural Sector

?Agriculture is the cornerstone of Kenya's economy contributing 33% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and approximately 65% of Kenya's export earnings, while providing livelihoods, (employment, income and food security needs) for more than 80 per cent of the Kenyan population (FAO, 2024).

Yet, Kenya's agricultural sector is heavily reliant on imported fertilizers, resulting in substantial government expenditure and vulnerability to global commodity price fluctuations.

This reliance was underscored in 2020-2021, when fertilizer prices in Kenya surged by 50-60% due to COVID-19 disruptions, export restrictions from China, and rising natural gas costs in Europe.

The volatility continued into 2021-2022, as the Ukraine-Russia conflict and sustained high energy prices drove fertilizer costs in Kenya up by an additional 70%. (Laborde, Matchaya, & Traoré, 2023).

The price volatility together with the high centralization of nitrogen production; where production occurs in roughly 500 large-scale facilities worldwide, makes fertilizer production and consequently the food supply—vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, posing a serious threat to the already strained food security in Kenya

As of June 2022, approximately 4.1 million Kenyans, particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL), faced severe food insecurity—a 30% increase from the previous assessment in February 2022 (Mutegi et al., 2024), calling immediate interventions.

With a specific focus on synthetic nitrogen(N) fertilizers, the most in-demand type of fertilizer; Nearly 4 billion people depend on food produced with these N fertlizers, which are created through energy-intensive, greenhouse gas-emitting processes.

In an attempt to develop an innovative solution to address the growing challenges, Kenya according to the Kenya Green Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap 2023 asserts that,

"... Green hydrogen has the potential to improve food security and enhance resilience by enabling the local production of nitrogen fertilizer. Fertilizers play a critical role in boosting agricultural productivity. Establishing a domestic fertilizer production industry can significantly improve the availability and accessibility of fertilizers to Kenya. This self-sufficiency will also help mitigate the impact of international commodity market fluctuations, further reinforcing resilience in the agricultural sector."

The Kenya Green Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, launched during the Africa Climate Summit (ACS) in2023, highlights that Kenya, with its vast renewable energy potential, particularly in geothermal, wind, solar, and hydro, is uniquely positioned to capitalize on green hydrogen for sustainable fertilizer production. Promising that substituting imported fertilizers with locally produced green alternatives, Kenya can enhance its food security, stimulate green industrial growth, and improve its balance of payment.

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2. Global Challenges Related to the Production of Synthetic Nitrogen Fertilizers.

?The global push to decarbonize food production has brought emerging technologies for sustainable agriculture intensification to the forefront. One crucial area for innovation is fertilizer production most specifically the synthetic nitrogen fertilizers.

As per the Rabobank Reports, the global nitrogen fertilizer consumption as of 2024 is estimated at 108 million metric tonnes (mmt) while (N) fertilizer production is pegged at 109 mmt where global consumption is expected to rise through 2030. (Ross, 2023)

The nitrogen fertilizer's market size?valued at USD 57.2 billion in 2021 and is projected to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% in terms of revenue from 2022 to 2030. (Ludemann et.al., 2022)

Much of the world is dependent on importing nitrogen fertilizer and the respective natural gas used in the ammonia synthesis process.Today, the food security of nearly 4 billion people hinges on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, which are manufactured through environmentally unsustainable processes.

This growing demand further threatens to push synthetic nitrogen fertilizer production beyond its current 2.1% contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, where N fertilizers remain the largest contributor to both production costs and greenhouse gas emissions in cropland agriculture. (Rosa & Gabrielli, 2022).

In 2018, The synthetic N fertiliser supply chain was responsible for estimated emissions of 1.13 GtCO2e, a 10.6% of agricultural emissions and 2.1% of global GHG emissions.

Synthetic N fertiliser production accounted for 38.8% of total synthetic N fertiliser-associated emissions, while field emissions accounted for 58.6% and transportation accounted for the remaining 2.6% (Stefano Menegat et al, 2022)

Transitioning to a net-zero agricultural system necessitates novel fertilizer strategies, particularly in the ammonia synthesis cycle.

3. Production Process of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers

The production process primarily involves the Haber-Bosch process, which synthesizes ammonia, the foundation for most nitrogen fertilizers.

The process of synthetic N fertilizers is as follows;

1. Ammonia Synthesis (Haber-Bosch Process)

• Feedstocks: The process starts with natural gas (methane) as a source of hydrogen and atmospheric nitrogen.
• Preparation: Methane is steam-reformed to release hydrogen. Nitrogen is separated from the air, usually through fractional distillation or by using a nitrogen separation membrane.
• Synthesis: Under high pressure (15-25 MPa) and high temperatures (400-500°C), nitrogen and hydrogen are combined in the presence of an iron catalyst to form ammonia (NH3).

N2+3H2→2NH3

2. Ammonia Conversion to Nitrogen Fertilizers

Once ammonia is produced, it can be further processed into various nitrogen-based fertilizers i.e Urea Production: here ammonia is reacted with carbon dioxide to produce urea (CO(NH2)2), a highly concentrated nitrogen fertilizer.

While the Haber-Bosch process, developed in the early 20th century, revolutionized agriculture by enabling the synthesis of ammonia from atmospheric nitrogen and hydrogen, it relies heavily on natural gas to generate hydrogen —and releases about 1.2% of global greenhouse gas emissions every year—a number that is expected to increase dramatically by 2050. (Smith, Hill, & Torrente-Murciano, 2020).

This process is both carbon-intensive and energy-demanding, primarily relying on natural gas and coal as feedstocks. (World Bank,2019)

Therefore, producing hydrogen from cleaner energy sources—such as green hydrogen derived from renewable energy—along with adopting alternative, energy-efficient processes, could significantly reduce global emissions in alignment with the Paris Agreement targets.

The question then remains:

[ Can Kenya adopt local production of Green Hydrogen for green-synthetic nitrogen fertilizers? If so, what are the benefits to the agricultural sector?}

4.Kenya's Challenges Due to Overdependence on Imported Fertilizers.

The substantial expenditure on fertilizer imports exerts pressure on Kenya's balance of payments, impacting its foreign exchange reserves and overall economic stability

According to Kenya's Balance of Payments Statistical Release (2024 Q2), chemical fertilizers accounted for 41.7% of total imported good, contributing to an increase of KSH 7.7 billion compared to the same quarter of 2023, driven by rising demand.

Despite a slight improvement in the trade deficit—from KSh 354.3 billion in Q2 2023 to KSh 341.2 billion in Q2 2024—the demand for imported fertilizer continues to surge. In 2024 Q2, 302,315.5 tonnes of chemical fertilizers were imported, more than doubling the 143,569.5 tonnes imported in Q1 of the same year.

Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS 2023), shows a record 12.6 million bags of fertilizer were imported in the first half of 2023, a significant increase from the 11.4 million bags imported throughout 2022.This surge in imports during early 2023 cost Kenya Sh44.8 billion, further pressuring the country’s balance of payments.

?The Kenya Vision 2030 identifies agriculture as one of the six key drivers under the economic pillar, that promises to raise GDP growth rate of 10% ,reduce poverty levels to 25 percent and boost food security to 30 percent by the year 2030. (Kenya Vision 2030 - Sector Plan for Agriculture 2013-2027). However, without a sustainable, locally produced fertilizer supply—such as that possible with green hydrogen-based production—Kenya’s agricultural sector remains dependent on imports, leaving the vision’s ambitious goals at risk.

?5. Green Hydrogen as a "Solution" to Kenya's Agricultural Sector and Overall Economy.

The production of green hydrogen promises to reduce the over reliance on imported fertilizers through local production.Central to this strategy is the synthesis of ammonia from green hydrogen, which serves as a critical component in fertilizer production.

Ammonia, as a primary derivative of green hydrogen, is versatile, with applications not only in fertilizers but in various industrial and energy sectors, making it an attractive entry point for developing a comprehensive green hydrogen economy.

The scope of application ranges from manufacturing, where ammonia can be utilized as a feedstock for producing plastics and other chemicals, while in the transport sector, it serves as a clean fuel alternative, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, ammonia-based systems can contribute to electricity generation, providing a sustainable energy source that complements Kenya’s renewable energy infrastructure.

The broad perspective of Kenya's green hydrogen strategy is to stimulate demand across these diverse applications, with the agricultutal sector as the most strategic entry point.

By doing so, Kenya not only reduces its reliance on imported fossil fuels but also positions itself to become a regional hub for green energy technology, capable of serving its own growing needs and those of neighboring countries.

Several converging factors have positioned fertilizer production as a prime candidate for leveraging green hydrogen in Kenya:

1. Addressing a Critical National Need: Kenya's agricultural sector, a cornerstone of its economy's reliance creates economic and food security vulnerabilities. Green hydrogen offers a pathway to address this dependence, as it can be used to produce ammonia, a key ingredient in nitrogen fertilizers.
2. Alignment with National Policies, Strategies and Vision 2030: Frameworks such as the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda and the Fertilizer Cost Reduction Program in the Kenya Vision 2030 - Sector Plan for Agriculture and Livestock (2018), though not explicitly mentioning green hydrogen, emphasize reducing fertilizer costs, promoting local manufacturing, and ensuring affordable access to fertilizers. These goals strongly align with green hydrogen’s potential to transform this sector.
3. Policy Support and Industry Momentum: Kenya's commitment to promoting a green hydrogen economy, is evident in its National Green Hydrogen Guidelines, which explicitly target the substitution of 50% of fertilizer imports with locally produced alternatives. Furthermore,The Nairobi Declaration, , endorsed by African leaders in 2024 at the recent Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit, emphasize the importance of expanding domestic fertilizer production across the continent, setting a goal to triple production by 2034 and to support gas-producing member states in these efforts.

This shared vision underscores the recognition that local fertilizer production is vital for achieving food security, economic development, and resilience against global market fluctuations.While the declaration doesn’t specifically reference green hydrogen, Kenya’s context suggests it will play a crucial role in achieving this vision.

The presence of companies like Maire Tecnomont and Talus Renewables, already advancing green hydrogen projects in Kenya, highlights the growing industry momentum in this sector.Maire Tecnimont is developing a renewable power-to-fertilizer plant, aiming to produce 550 tons of nitrate fertilizers per day for local agri-businesses fertilizers for Sub-Saharan Africa ((Pereira & Carrazzolle,2022). Thet Talus Renewables, is a fossil fuel free ammonia plant at the Kenya Nut Company, near Nairobi, that will use solar power to strip hydrogen from water. Its a US-based plant that has already deployed a modular ammonia and fertilizer production system, securing a 15-year off-take agreement with Kenya Nut. (Ammonia Energy Association, 2024)

4. Kenya’s Renewable Energy Potential: With approximately 90% of its electricity already sourced from renewables like geothermal, wind, solar, and hydro, Kenya is well-positioned to leverage this natural advantage as a potential leader in large scale green hydrogen-based fertilizer production

5. Global Trends and Opportunities: The global shift towards sustainable agriculture and the increasing demand for green fertilizers create an opportunity for Kenya to become a regional hub for production and export to European Markets. The country strategic location positions Kenya as a regional trading hub attracting direct investments while expanding the economy.

Fertilizer Production became the best- use case for green hydrogen in Kenya because it meets urgent agricultural needs, aligns with national economic goals, and capitalizes on Kenya's renewable energy strengths while also laying the groundwork for other green hydrogen-driven industries through ammonia production.

" It is unfortunate that despite the inherent potential, Africa currently spends billions of dollars in food and fertilizer imports per year. Greater efforts must be made to leverage the availability of raw materials for the local production of mineral fertilizers and reduce our over-reliance on imports."

His Excellency Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, President of the Republic of Zimbabwe in the African Union’s official press release, 9 May 2024

Remember, the question i posed earlier;

[ Can Kenya adopt local production of Green Hydrogen for green-synthetic nitrogen fertilizers? If so, what are the benefits to the agricultural sector?}

I believe that this article offers a plausible answer. ;)

About Author

As an Agricultural and Biosystem engineer, most of my experience has focused on the two thirds of fertilizer emission that occur after their deployment in croplands , rather than the one third generated during production.

This focus has driven my interest in the broader impacts of industrialization in agriculture on both the economy and climate, making this research on emerging technologies in fertilizer production an especially exciting endeavor. Merging my familiar passsion for Agriculture and a "totally new" technology that piques my interest

Exploring the intersection of agriculture and innovative technologies aligns with my current pursuit for Climate Action and Clean Energy for Sustainable Development in Sub-Sahara Africa, is truly exhilirating, to say the least.

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FAO.2022 FAOSTAT Emission Shares dataset.

Government of Kenya. (2018). Kenya Vision 2030- Sector Plan Agriculture.

Government of Kenya. (2024). Green Hydrogen Strategy & Roadmap for Kenya.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. (2023). Quarterly Balance of Payments.

Laborde, D., Matchaya, G., & Traoré, F. (2023). Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on African agriculture, trade, poverty, and food systems.

Ludemann, C. I., Gruere, A., Heffer, P., & Dobermann, A. (2022). Global data on fertilizer use by crop and by country.?Scientific data,?9(1), 1-8.

Mutegi, J., Adolwa, I., Kiwia, A., Njoroge, S., Gitonga, A., Muthamia, J., ... & Kansiime, M. (2024). Agricultural production and food security implications of Covid-19 disruption on small-scale farmer households: lessons from Kenya.?World Development,?173, 106405.

Nation Media Group. (2023, August 21). Traders triple fertiliser imports under President Ruto subsidy programme.

Pereira, G. A. G., & Carazzolle, M. F. (2022) Why and How: A Chronicle of Second-Generation Ethanol. Liquid Biofuels: Bioethanol, 133.

Republic of Kenya. (2018). Sector Plan for Agriculture Second Medium Term Plan

?Rosa, L., & Gabrielli, P. (2022). Energy and food security implications of transitioning synthetic nitrogen fertilizers to net-zero emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 18(1), 014008.

Ross Quin, Global Fertilizer Outlook - 1 ;Global Nitrogen Fertilizer Supply, Demand Outlook Generally Favorable, DTN Reports (2023)

?Smith, C., Hill, A. K., & Torrente-Murciano, L. (2020). Current and future role of Haber–Bosch ammonia in a carbon-free energy landscape. Energy & Environmental Science, 13(2), 331-344.

Stefano Menegat et al, Greenhouse gas emissions from global production and use of nitrogen synthetic fertilisers in agriculture, Scientific Reports (2022)

World Bank. (2019). Fertilizer Pollution: Restoring balance for a sustainable future.