How to Not Fear the Future

I believe it was in 1999 that Ray Kurzweil predicted that we would have AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2029. At the time people thought the prediction was too bold and aggressive. Now, post Chat GPT, it seems like a miraculously accurate prediction.

I just heard that by the year 2040 there will be 10 billion humanoids on earth. That will be alongside 10 billion humans on the same earth.

As we move forward with AI, and more specifically AGI, are we going to be "coupled" or are we going to be "decoupled". What does that mean? Coupled means humans and humanoids will advance together. Decoupled means humanoids will chart their own course.

Sounds like the makings of a blockbuster sci-fi movie. The only thing is that these scenarios are increasingly seeming more like reality.

And if we go in the decoupled direction and, one day, the humanoids decide that there is not enough room to coexist with us humans, I only hope that the AI engineers of today are successful in eliminating bias in their algorithms. So, the extinction of humans is random, and we don't end up with a race (or just a few) left behind.

Jokes aside (although this may not be a joke - I do not know yet), the question really is how to think, feel and act about these boom or doom times.

I could be completely wrong of course. And this note could be misdirected to you, as the reader, as you may not be thinking about these things at all. If that is the case, you can stay that way and stop reading this note. Or maybe you want to start giving all this a teeny-weeny thought.

The title of this note is misleading I admit. Fear is a basic human emotion, and it is wrong to claim I have ways for avoiding fear. If one is a "boomer" about AI, then there is no fear of the topic. But if one is a "doomer" then one can only manage and control one's fear.

The best way to manage and control fear is as a "stoic". Ask the most basic question: Is this a threat to me or my near and dear ones personally OR is it a threat to many. In this situation, the threat is to many - in fact the threat is to all humans.

Next question would be do I (or someone close to me) have the power to avert this threat? The answer is no. Do I (or someone close to me) have the power to influence someone (or some people) who have the power to avert this threat? The answer is no.

Ok, I am getting increasingly calm about this already. It may sound like a loser mentality, but if everyone is done and no one (individually) can do anything about it, it does not make much sense to worry about it. So, the reader who has not been thinking about all this is the smart one. This note hopefully does not mess you up.

Continuing this line of thinking though, how should I feel and what should I do? It seems na?ve, boring, and somewhat irresponsible to not do anything about all this. After all, AI is the talk everywhere. By companies as many times as they can, by experts and pundits at trade shows and seminars, by individuals at dinner tables and social gatherings.

You may have heard of a term "Antifragile" made famous by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book by the same name. The basic principle being how can adverse events make us stronger.

I think we have to work towards being antifragile to AI. Instead of avoiding it, we actually embrace it and get as deep as we can into it. So, if good things happen, we should benefit and if bad things happen there is a chance we will hurt less. Not exactly a win-win situation but as close as we can get.

How do we do that? Gathering information and developing knowledge on it is the obvious answer. But I do think we need to take it a step further and actively seek opportunities in it. Volunteer to be part of the pilot programs which most companies have launched or are about to launch. Identify opportunities that can benefit from AI and propose initiatives around it. Actively participate in training the LLMs.

There is one more thing we can all do. Use the information gathered, knowledge developed and personal experiences to invest in companies that are going to be in the forefront of this new technology. If we put in the effort to develop the knowledge and experience in the field let us remember we can use the same to also make capital investments to reap the benefits as well.

I will continue to write notes around the topic of AI here in this platform based on everything I learn through others and my self-learning. I also look forward to hearing from you with your thoughts on the topic.

Thanks for reading.