How to expect the unexpected: A math professor offers a guide to smarter predictions
?? Mathematics professor Kit Yates helps us make smarter predictions in the New Year
Happy New Year! From all of us who make Hello Monday.?
It’s going to be a really big year. AI is going to transform a lot of things we have taken for granted. There’s a presidential election ahead in the United States. The only constant, really, is uncertainty. This idea that things will change.
And this time of year, we often consider predictions about what’s ahead. The more we can draw on what we know has happened to predict what we believe will happen, the better prepared we will be, right?
That’s how we decide how much to save for retirement. Or whether to take a new job.?
Here’s the thing: we’re not always great at predictions. Would you have predicted a global pandemic in January 2020? Or, think about your own personal circumstances: would you have predicted the life you have now—the job, the friends, where you live—a decade ago??
So this week, we’re going to focus on getting smarter about how and when we make predictions.
Our guest is Kit Yates. He lectures in math - or MATHS, as he calls it - at the University of Bath in the UK.? His book is called How to Expect the Unexpected. It’s his goal to help us all get better at the science of prediction - and maybe even more importantly - to recognize when it’s just not going to be all that useful.?
In our conversation today, we’ll talk about psychics and the people who profess to be able to predict who will win the super bowl. He’ll give us a reality check on randomness. And he’ll help us sort out how to make better guesses, and how to manage when we get new evidence that refutes what we thought we knew. You can listen right here, or below:
? Office Hours: Making our own predictions
Join us Wednesday at 3pm EST for Office Hours. Michaela Greer cohosts with me this week, and we'll have coffee or tea, and time. Bring your thoughts on the episode. Or just drop in to say hello to the regulars (you know who you are!). You can find us on the LinkedIn News Page, or by clicking the link below. Or, drop us an email at [email protected]. See you there!
?? ? Transcripts available upon request.
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1 年Gosh, Jessi Hempel , I discover the most interesting books on your podcast, thank you.
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1 年Thank you and you very much welcomed
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1 年I always enjoy listening to Jessi????
Board Member - Canal Society of NJ and Mentor - MSU Feliciano School of Business
1 年This is especially useful in the economy!
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1 年Since algorithms are developed by humans, they can unwittingly reflect human biases in areas like gender or race. Therefore, it's crucial to critically evaluate our data and algorithms to minimize the impact of these biases on our conclusions.