How EVs are changing the future of oil demand
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Committed to shaping a secure and sustainable energy future for all.
Welcome back to?Energy Snapshot, the International Energy Agency’s new monthly newsletter focused on charts and data. In today’s edition, we take a look at?how?the adoption of electric vehicles is reshaping the outlook for oil markets. ?
Despite near-term challenges in some markets, the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) globally remains strong. Last year, about 20% of new cars sold worldwide were electric – and that share is expected to continue to rise. Based on today’s policy settings by governments around the world, EVs’ market share is set to grow nearer to 50% by 2030 and beyond it soon after.
The growth of electric mobility has been particularly dynamic in China, where the majority of electric cars sold in 2023 were already less expensive than their conventional equivalents. The electrification of road transport – along with a vast high-speed rail network that competes with air travel and the use of LNG for trucks – is putting the brakes on increases in oil demand in China, which has long been the driving force of global growth in oil consumption, accounting for more than 60% of it over the past decade.
Globally, the adoption of electric vehicles is set to reduce oil demand by about 6 million barrels per day by 2030 and 13 million barrels per day by 2035. This is a key reason that a peak in global oil demand is currently projected by the end of this decade, based on today’s policy settings.
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For more on the outlook for electric vehicles and what it could mean for global oil demand, read our newly published?World Energy Outlook 2024 , which is available in full for free. Our latest?Global EV Outlook , published in April 2024, is another great resource – as is the accompanying?Global EV Data Explorer , an interactive tool that allows users to explore historical and projected data on electric vehicle sales, stocks, charging infrastructure and oil displacement.?
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We’ll be back in your inboxes with more charts based on IEA data and analysis in November.?
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2 周Did you know that the Ford auto workers will loose about $5000 in pay this year because of the EV mandate the Biden/Harris admin is demanding and the UAW leadership kowtowed to? I would be very cautious about betting on EV adoption continuing to grow. Especially at the rates we have seen the past 10 years.
Consultant -- Industrial, Academic, Otherwise
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As more and more countries commit to phasing out gasoline and diesel cars, the demand for oil is likely to decline in the coming years.
Superintendant at Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO)
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